Gold

[toilet]

GO GO GO

GOLD GOLD GOLD !

 

gold has hit 406.50 ( the high for the day was 406.70)

pretty good close.

Up $3 / 0.74%

 

another record high for gold.

 

I beleive gold "MAY" hit a bit higher

b4 it steps back to test the $400 US once again.

 

Mite be some quick money to sell and buy back later

if gold stocks shoot up on MUNDAY!

 

= )

[toilet]

Can anybody out there

tell me why gold shares aren't shining like

the price of the gold bullion !?

 

[redned71]

Fairly simple explanation;

POG in A$ isn't going anywhere. Here's a link to POG in A$ & you'll see what I mean.

 

Http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=AUD&c...ng&a=lin&m=0&x=

 

After peaking at A$640 in Feb, its traded pretty much in the A$530-550 range, now around A$550, where it's been for the last 2-3 months. In that same timeframe, POG in US$ as we know has just kept climbing, here's the link for POG US$.

 

Http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxplot?b=USD&c...ng&a=lin&m=0&x=

 

So the rise in gold has been offset by the rise in the A$.

 

So gold companies operating in Australia with most of their costs in A$ are being killed by the rising A$. Those offshore have part natural hedge if their costs are also in A$, but they still are not gaining full reward for US$ POG rise.

 

I've spoken to several of my larger holdings and was very surprised NONE even consider currency hedging. CRAZY.

 

So take a look at SED, who have hedged 60% of their production for next 5 years at A$651.50/oz

That's equivalent now to US$482/oz.

Pretty smart move.

 

I think the market is only now waking up to the over valuation in some aussie miners, with their income stuck at A$550.

If A$ keeps rising & gold holds here, it will get real ugly for many aussie miners.

E.g. POG US$405, with A$ at US$0.80 = POG A$506,

US$0.90 = POG A$450

 

I'm a gold fan & very long many gold stocks, particularly OXR, which has a great natural hedge for the next few years while it spends US$200m building copper plant, then paying off the debt in US$.

 

cheers,

 

ned

[stocko]

That was a very good post Redned.

 

I have a feeling that the Aussie dollar will move back down the ladder as we have a massive debt problem as well as the U.S

I also think that if Gold goes for a run on a falling USD then our currency should peg out at at .80 This is the interesting part when we want to see how far the lacky band stretches.

 

I think the the run on Gold will actually be caused by a run on Silver, interesting times ahead.

[saxien]

Like it or not, we are now entering a currency driven gold rush not seen for at least 15 years, as the US currency has to devalue, (and quick) due to it,s self inflicted policy of being the planets policeman, they are now in the process of reflation, to correct their huge currency imbalance, which China will now have to address urgently, having refused to do so earlier by US requests, the Euro, reflects this standoff, but will soon correct, in the meantime aussie golds will have their day in the sun, but don,t get caught, the men in black are at it again, and they, in the end, will win the day, if by some quirk, they let this bubble go too long, you won,t have a job.

[happychappy]

Silver is also motoring along in gold's footsteps. We tend to forget about gold's ugly sister, but we could see some interest in companies with silver potential.

 

Kitco is showing silver at $6.33 compared to only $5 not very long ago (ie a 25% increase), which is of the same size as gold's increase from $340 to $425.

 

R/happy

[The_Muns]

Golds and Silver is definitely the place to invest.

 

Five, most probably ten years, if it reaches fifteen, get burying those krugerrands in the desert.

 

Do your own research as I could rant on, but I wouldn't say "Saxien is far from the truth."

[rotuma]

I would like advice please from experienced gold investors ... http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif

 

I am seriously considering putting money into two gold companies (approx $4 000 each company).

 

I am looking at the following companies:

 

OXR, BSG (junior producers)

KCG, SMO (junior explorers)

 

atm, I'm leaning towards BSG and KCG ...

 

Q1: Which is the better of each category? (or are their even better options???)

Q2: Or should I look at the BIG gold producers? (eg LHG etc)

Q3: Is this gold rally long-term? (I believe so ...) or am I buying at the top, and setting myself up for a big fall???

Q4: Are there any indications of a short term retracement in gold price? Or just buy now? Perhaps TA people can help here? Last thu/fri drop to $420 was a buy opportunity. Now that gold is back around $427, I cringed, as I knew I wasn't getting funds til mon/tue! http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/sadsmiley02.gif

 

Thanks guys for your help ... http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

[moneyman888]

IN REPLY TO A POST BY rotuma, Sat 10/01/04 10:57pm   [READ POST] I would like advice please from experienced gold investors ... http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif I am seriously considering putting money into two gold companies (approx $4 000 each company). I am looking at the following companies: OXR, BSG (junior producers) KCG, SMO (junior explorers) atm, I'm leaning towards BSG and KCG ... Q1: Which is the better of each category? (or are their even better options???) Q2: Or should I look at the BIG gold producers? (eg LHG etc) Q3: Is this gold rally long-term? (I believe so ...) or am I buying at the top, and setting myself up for a big fall??? Q4: Are there any indications of a short term retracement in gold price? Or just buy now? Perhaps TA people can help here? Last thu/fri drop to $420 was a buy opportunity. Now that gold is back around $427, I cringed, as I knew I wasn't getting funds til mon/tue! http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/sadsmiley02.gif Thanks guys for your help ... http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

Hi,

 

Another tack you could take if you want exposure to gold and are thinking medium-long term (1year+) is to buy gold outright.

 

The symbol GOLD represents 1/10 of a fine troy ounce and I hold a small quantity of this as part of my investment portfolio.

 

More info can be found on the ASX site http://www.asx.com.au/markets/Gold_AM2.shtm

 

This way I am exposed to the rising gold price, and do not need to worry about company mining or production expenses eating into profits, company hedging policies (as I can take care of this myself) nor executives granting options or doing similar and destroying shareholder value in the process.

 

I agree with the bullish comments elsewhere on this forum and believe that for the reasons outlined including the US currency fiasco due to their 1/2 trillion dollar deficit that gold will be above US$700 within 24 months.

 

Cheers

[happychappy]

IN REPLY TO A POST BY rotuma, Sat 10/01/04 09:57pm   [READ POST] I would like advice please from experienced gold investors ... http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif I am seriously considering putting money into two gold companies (approx $4 000 each company). I am looking at the following companies: OXR, BSG (junior producers) KCG, SMO (junior explorers) atm, I'm leaning towards BSG and KCG ... Q1: Which is the better of each category? (or are their even better options???) Q2: Or should I look at the BIG gold producers? (eg LHG etc) Q3: Is this gold rally long-term? (I believe so ...) or am I buying at the top, and setting myself up for a big fall??? Q4: Are there any indications of a short term retracement in gold price? Or just buy now? Perhaps TA people can help here? Last thu/fri drop to $420 was a buy opportunity. Now that gold is back around $427, I cringed, as I knew I wasn't getting funds til mon/tue! http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/sadsmiley02.gif Thanks guys for your help ... http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

Hi Rotuma - the choice of company depends a lot on the risk/reward balance that you are after.

 

If you looking for a possible 10x bagger return (and can accept the risk of a 50-90% loss) then KCG, SMO would fit. There are lots more speccy gold stocks in this category than I can follow - but AMG, GBG come to mind as two that are worth looking at.

 

OXR/BSG are lower risk, higher quality, and valued accordingly.

 

Other good lower risk stocks would include GRD (for exposure to Oceania gold float) & SED (emerging gold producer - see also the posts by Redned71 on Asxboard and ozestock).

 

I also like ADU a lot, but the price has moved sharply upwards recently.

 

R/happy