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In reply to: jerry on Monday 01/11/04 01:19pm

Hi Jerry,


Yes the short term does not look so good, but looking at this last leg of the trend from 17c to 37c a pull back was on the cards. The 27c area is the 50% fibonacci retracement zone, and a healthy retracement is a good thing,...now is it just a retracement or is there a fundamental reason for the pull back as you hinted at?



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In reply to: BSA on Monday 01/11/04 01:38pm

I'm not sure BSA. This is one of those companies where it is very hard to determine what is going on. We know management were selling in the mid thirties - multiple directors. We also know that the company is precariously exposed to one high-value contract.


It's frightening to try and pin a value on the company if they lose this contract. Holding everything else constant, a sell-off from these levels would very certainly be warranted.


If however, the company retains this contract and continues to expand its managed services business there is real upside.


One thing is certain here, the chart doesn't lie. The market is betting that all is not well.


A brave contrarian might make a lot of money here, or suffer very significant losses.


We'll know after the event.



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In reply to: jerry on Monday 01/11/04 01:19pm


Hi Jerry , thanks for your posts on this one . i am happy to have got out just about square. i am sleeping better.


I remember phoning the Co Sec of austrim nylex a few years ago . I didnt get any negative information , But , he jumped ship very soon after , just before it went down .

The chairman , one time guru , and one time RBA member Jackson , had apparently been having delusions of grandeur.


We seldom get all the information , often get treated like mushrooms, .Seems to be a need for us to have an honesty rating .

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Well .... 28c may just be holding as a support level, but not my style to buy in such a precarious position http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif


Market seems to have definetly spoken ... so we just sit and wait for them to decide what happens next ... watching closely ... at the moment.


PS. Whilst market depth can change in an instant, currently there is certainly a lack of buyers compared to sellers.


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In reply to: thekiwi on Thursday 04/11/04 11:30am

Well, 28c might be holding as a price support level. Whilst volume is certainly lacking, is good to see it peak back up. Still waiting and watching for it to show some signs of strength. Expect resistance at 29c, so will be waiting for it to close above that and show signs of moving Nth again.


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In reply to: thekiwi on Wednesday 26/01/05 09:39am

Hi Kiwi


I'd be very careful on this one, TA may look OK in the short term so it may be worth a quick trade. However I'm not convinced there is much life left in the Govt contract so things are likely to look a little rough a qtr or two down the track. Also as they now will be paying tax (either this qtr or next the tax losses will be all used up) earnings may start to look a little weaker (30% weaker).


This qtr's report may look fine but if this Govt contract ends they will have a double whammy of lost revenue and a bench of surplus staff to deal with. Could get ugly.


All IMHO of course.




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