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nice run up in gas prices at the end of the day. I suspect this statement by the DOE has something to do with it:


On 09/30, 26 natural gas processing plants, with capacities equal to or greater than 100
million cubic feet per day in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, were not active; now
there are 21. Ten of these 21 plants with a total capacity of 5.4 billion cubic feet per day
are not active owing to external factors, including lack of electric power or gas supplies.
Eleven of the 21 plants are inactive because of damage to the facilities themselves. These
plants have capacity of 7.7 billion cubic feet per day.


Traded a nice amount from lows today and sold just under the high. Recovered some from losses in gasoline.


source: http://www.electricity.doe.gov/documents/g...port_100405.pdf

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some were thinking that ethylene plant demand would be crimped by high gas prices. I think this puts that to rest.


DJ MARKET TALK: Ethylene Prices Offset Upward Pressure On Gas

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚  [Dow Jones] Since Fri, the percentage of U.S. ethylene capacity on line has
risen to about 70% from about 56%, according to CMAI Global. This translates
into roughly an additional 1.0-1.5 bcf/d of natural gas demand if those plants
return to 100% of capacity while Gulf of Mexico gas output has only recovered
by 0.7 bcf/d. Another 8% of capacity is now in the process of restarting. With
ethylene prices nearly 40% higher than in Aug, $14 gas won't be an impediment
to resuming output, according to Frank Mitsch, a chemical industry analyst at
Fulcrum Global. (spencer.jakab@dowjones.com)



A wild ride today, up and down ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£10k. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/puke.gif I've gone even longer today in natural gas as I view the product draws in gasoline and distillate as very bullish and providing less alternatives to natural gas. Hoping to get that ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚£10k back!


Tomorrow's natural gas inventory report should show the first signs of Rita impacting IMO. A reduction in storage will be very bullish.

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In reply to: theflasherman on Thursday 06/10/05 09:07am


- the oil and gas sector is short on a daily basis.

- light crude is short.

- the move down in OSH and WPL has caught out the slower oscillators.


so it seems likely that natural gas will move in concert with the rest of the sector even though it is a stronger contract.





that spike top on the 240 chart is a false break so i would expect it to fall out of the bottom of the preceding consolidation.


you think the news is bullish. but last night price fell. that suggests lower prices.


i may well be wrong about price. but i don't think you'll last long if you make a habit of adding to a losing position. and to be loaded up and in loss before a market report is like an accident waiting to happen.




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I cut my positions. Looking at the way markets are at the moment I agree with you that there is substantial risk to the downside. I protected my profits and have walked out doing well. I can see that gas prices will take off now that I am out! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/grrr.gif

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  • 3 months later...

Anyone know any mid to large cap companies that have unhedged exposure to Wheat, Soybeans, Coffee, Cotton or Rice?


I know we have CSR (Sugar) and AWB (Wheat) on the ASX but was hoping to come up with some others trading on international markets as an alternative/addition to direct exposure through futures.


Any ideas?



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