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In reply to: Krumbs on Friday 01/12/06 12:00am

Quite right about fiddling with numbers Krumbs.

 

Until we hit something measurable its all about assumptions.

 

I put the HDR story up as it has many parallels to our drill. I think it will serve as a good indicator of what could happen if the upper zone is commercial. If events follow along similar lines I dare say price will be closer to Fatdog's swiss gnome price.

 

If the first zone looks like being commercial the market will put value on for the lower zone.

 

It is also likely the market would start to place value on the southern (seperate) target as its prospectivity will have increased.

 

Gas content could water down value if theres a large amount. We will have to wait and see.

 

 

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Prior to spud it had 2 stacked drill objectives with an approx. 20% chance of success. 1st objective at 2200m(Cenomanian sands). 2nd objective at 3600m(Aptian/Albian sands). After the shows announced this week...I don't really know,but I doubt it would be less chance of success.

 

Prospective resources(unrisked) =209MMbbl. Baraka's share is 73MMbbl. NPV10 Baraka's share =US$445m.

 

Then there's the Taoudeni Basin in Mali -193,000 sq kms-(JV ENI and Sonatrach)-potential 645MMbbl + 9.2 Tcf and Mauritania -69000 sq km-(JV with Woodside)-potential 722MMbbl + 2.5 Tcf-(unrisked prospective resources). The NPV10 for these is an awful lot of $US.

 

There is great potential for further leads in all projects as has been discussed by other posters. The good part is that it's early days share price wise. There is a long way to go though but things are looking good so far. Highly speculative but well worth a look. Further info at www.barakapetroleum.com.

 

It has been suggested that the chance of success was upgraded to 25% prior to spud.

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Part of a long article explaining why the Asian oilers are beating the US and European oilers to many of the best prospects in Africa. Seems to indicate that the shallow and the deeper targets at Heron could potentially hold 200 million Barrels each. Not sure if that's the journalist's error or if that's what Max told him???

 

QUOTE
A Matter of Culture
ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ 
Part of the Asian companies' allure is that they seem to understand the logistics of local development better than their Western peers, African officials said. They're also more eager to please.

"The reason Africans approach China is because the Chinese know the needs of Africans," said Gabriel Nguema Lima, vice minister of oil for Equatorial Guinea. "What we need is hospitals and infrastructure. The oil company won't build them - but they will call their government to make sure our needs are met."

Major Western companies have less flexibility, he said - with the exception of the independents, which are scooping up many of Equatorial Guinea's new exploration blocks. "The independents are like the Chinese. They're interested in helping the country, talking to the ministers and presidents, and understand what we want."

Some independents can also get along with their new Asian partners. Max de Vietri, chief executive of Baraka Petroleum Ltd. (BKP.AU), an independent oil company that's been operating in Mali for five years and has close ties with the government there, said the Chinese are "model partners."

The company this week showed successful exploration results on a prospect that could total 400 million barrels. In the joint-venture with Baraka, De Vietri said that his Chinese partners were "willing to listen" on proposals for operating strategies. "That doesn't happen" with many Western companies, he said.
-By Ian Talley and Angel Gonzalez, Dow Jones Newswires; (202) 862 9285, ian.talley@dowjones.com;ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ 

 

 

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In reply to: dee27 on Friday 01/12/06 07:11pm

Presumably the journalist means flouresence and gas when he refers to 'posative results' and not actual oil.

 

If not, then he has let one giant cat out of the bag.

 

I thinks it quite a thought that right now that drill team has probably gone through the upper target and quite possibly have lots of black stuff billowing out.

 

Wish the Hardman Tea ladies were on this job - sure would like to know whats going on.

 

Monday morning price action will reveal all methinks

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I don`t know the man personally though my research suggests that he is well received in Mauritania/Mali.With the locals onside I have a little more confidence.

 

 

Mr. Max de Vietri has forged strong relationships with governments of West and North Africa, who have seen him as an important facilitator of both trade and economic development between the region and Western companies, particularly mining and petroleum.

 

On 6 April 2005 Mr. de Vietri received his exequatur admitting him to the exercise of his function as Honorary Consul for the Republic of Mali in Perth with jurisdiction throughout Western Australia, South Australia and Northern Territory.

 

In April 2006, Max de Vietri became Officer of the Order of Mauritania.

 

 

http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

 

 

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In reply to: dee27 on Friday 01/12/06 09:11pm

Dee, 400MB is correct.

 

I posted the following info a couple of weeks back......its taken from Barakas IPO document, in particular the independent geologists report:

 

 

"Note also Baraka are somewhat modest in their claim of 200MB recoverable from the drill.

 

The independent reserves calculation contained in the original IPO docs show the Heron structure at 700MB recoverable. 40% of this lies beyond our permit area so that leaves 420MB of which 239MB is thought to be in the upper target zone. "

 

Since the IPO more seismic has been run and interpreted. This accounts for the company now putting more emphasis on the lower zone.

 

A further note on Max. Max put together all the original Mauritania acreage and then got HDR on board. ROC actually purchased Max's remaining interest in Mauritania.

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just thinking they would know by now if it was a hit and would have released it if it was a find. Im thinking we will just get the usual update monday or tuesday revealing how far they have drilled. New to oilers and just my thoughts. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif
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QUOTE (lockykaren @ Saturday 02/12/06 07:53am)

I`m no expert either but I do see that each company places a different "emphasis" on their reports.The oil for our machines will come in time and the ensuing company value will rise accordingly.

 

I won`t use the word "patient" because blind faith , though nice and correct , can leave you empty of pocket with a lot of wasted time.

 

What you see is what you get. (Not the avatar though) http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

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