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Overnight action


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QUOTE (flower @ Saturday 06/12/08 07:21am)


http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif I agree that theflasherman made some very shrewd observations three and a half years ago, and he deserves full credit for raising them.

However, his conclusion about timing rates maybe fair to average. Not knocking anything he said, and since his observations concerned the US Markets, I'll use the S&P500 chart to assess their "prophetic" qualifications.

SS members may check the All Ords themselves to see whether conclusions from "Overnight Actions" would have helped them with their timing.


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In reply to: arty on Saturday 06/12/08 12:36pm

The application to our own Materials index, however, was "spot-on".

disagree strongly with broker conclusions of a reduction in prices over the next few months
"Hear Hear" http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif


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  • 1 year later...

It will be very interesting to see what markets make of this very long awaited for announcement by the PBC.


IMO it is of significance, both in it's content and it's timing dead ahead of the G20 meeting and the FOMC meeting midweek.


Stay Alert! Just have a look at the weekly chart of the Yuan over the last 2.5 years.



June 20 (Bloomberg) -- China said it will allow a more flexible yuan, signaling an end to the currency's two-year-old peg to the dollar a week before a Group of 20 summit.


The decision was made after the world's third-largest economy improved, the central bank said in a statement on its website yesterday, without indicating a timeframe for the change. It ruled out a one-time revaluation, saying there is no basis for "large-scale appreciation," and kept the yuan's 0.5 percent daily trading band unchanged.


"The recovery and upturn of the Chinese economy has become more solid with the enhanced economic stability," the People's Bank of China said. "It is desirable to proceed further with reform of the renminbi exchange-rate regime and increase the renminbi exchange-rate flexibility."


The move may help deflect criticism from President Barack Obama and other G-20 leaders, who have blamed China for relying on an undervalued currency to promote exports. It also affirms Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner's policy of encouraging China to loosen restrictions on the yuan while resisting calls in Congress for trade sanctions. Geithner in April delayed a report to lawmakers assessing whether China or any other country is unfairly manipulating its exchange rate.


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  • 9 months later...

Who sais overnight actions dont influence markets?


The US produced its monthly fictitous employment stats, immediately they were announce the USD Index soared and USD gold got thrashed.


Traders had a think, and calmed down and switched off their CNBC live interviews with all those "in the know", and rethought things, coming to the conclusion that in fact the US has used the birth death model to produce just enough new jobs to keep pace with increasing US population.


Consequently both markets then reversed gears---oh to be trading the US market instead of having a good sleep!



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  • 2 weeks later...

President Barack ObamaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s plan to cut $4 trillion in cumulative deficits within 12 years may be a ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“positiveÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ for the nationÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s credit quality and mark a reversal in the budget debate, according to MoodyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Investors Service





What planet is he on?


Doesn't he want to get re-elected?


In reality-- an internal memo goes to Helicopter Ben: "Crank up the printing presses"

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What was once a beacon for freedom and economic prosperity - is in the process of over the next few years of becoming a basket case thanks to Marxism (it already is a basket case, just not obvious to most).


What prevailing train of thought fills the vacuum is what we all should be fighting for, freedom and economic prosperity sounds good to me.

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Mungo, something we need to watch very closely is the daily strengthening of the Chinese Currency the YUAN, some feel that long held peg to the USD is about to be severed, if not severed the Chinese CB will allow the Yuan to make very much larger daily appreciations to combat the inflation imported from the US, which will in effect mean the same thing as formally severing the USD peg link.
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China needs to reduce its foreign- exchange reserves as they exceed the level the nation requires, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said.


The management and diversification of the holdings, which topped $3 trillion at the end of March, should be improved, Zhou said after a speech at Tsinghua University in Beijing late yesterday. The rapid accumulation is putting pressure on the sterilization operations of the People's Bank of China, he said.


The nation's foreign-exchange reserves climbed $197 billion in the first quarter, reflecting global imbalances that Group of 20 finance ministers agreed last week to address through deeper scrutiny of their economic policies. China's surging holdings are fueling inflation that accelerated last month to the highest in 32 months, prompting the government to boost banks' reserve requirements this week for the fourth time this year.





Overnight action is leading us into a highly interesting 10 day situation.


On the one hand we have China making the comments (above)---we have downgrading of the US---and we have 3 trading days left before we enter what will be in effect be a 7 day trading break for Easter, and just as we stagger back to work on Wednesday 27th the FOMC start a crucial two day meeting, crucial they all are, but this one has to contend with what can only be described as a gloomy outlook for the US now also heading into a lame duck leadership issue.


Very interesting times---how should one in Australia be positioned-- right now -- :icon14:

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  • 1 year later...
2. This Friday sees another set of US Employment stats.



Out they came---as usual carefully phrased, so the whole market (except PM's) jumped.


However the reality is the unemployment rate increased to 7.9%.----participation rate unchanged, which would mean (according to shrewd observers) it would take at least another 6 years or so to reach the FED's target of 6.5% unemployment, and during those 6 years presumably the FED will keep printing money at todays rate of USD35billion per month---everything suddenly OK in La La Land?


Heaven help us when the penny finally drops :excl:


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