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US markets up about 0.5%, oil up, base metals up. I can't see any reason why the Aussie market shouldn't rally today. All overseas factors are positive. Spreadbetting is currently calling the ASX200 to open at 4098 up from 4077. It is gonna be interesting to see if this run can be sustained. Previous high was 4266 so we are only 4.1% away from the high.
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I think mining and energy stocks will lift the market today. Banks may well be the losers today after recent rallies. Macquarie banks retrace late yesterday worrie me a bit and i think it will carry the banks down. Just my HO.
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good to see US GDP come in ahead of consensus pushing US markets up. This also bodes well for commodity demand. Apparently some US analysts are calling this the end of the soft patch. However, IMO, I still think we have some way to go to re-establish the strong uptrend we had a couple of months ago. I'd like to see the S&P500 and Dow about 2.5%-3% higher first to take out the previous 52 week high to suggest we are back on track.


I do think that analysts are underestimating commodity prices over the next year which should lead to upgrades.


I also think traders are back and are now there to be taken advantage of, if possible. It's time to go back to looking at news driven stocks I think.


Would love some other views.

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In reply to: theflasherman on Tuesday 24/05/05 07:23am


The high just two months ago was 4266 when the sky was falling and the market was overvalued.


We are now told it is safe to buy because the market is cheap at PE of 14.


What has really changed is the question everyone needs to answer for themselves.


The chestnuts that are trotted out give a guide as to market direction have been lucky to be right 50% of the time.


From todayÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Age


Australian companies appear to be scaling back investment plans as they face the prospect of flagging consumer demand, a rise in input costs and shrinking profit margins.


Flagging consumer demand, a rise in input costs and shrinking profit margins.

Now thatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s a good recipe for adjustment of PE ratios.


The short term future is definitely on the increase, but as to the longer term we may not have reached the bottom.






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it should be a strong day today. US markets up a fair bit given comments that the interest rate tightening cycle could be over. I'm thinking that the Fed is really concerned about popping the speculative real estate bubble.


Today should be even stronger in the oilers (although tomorrow's US inventory report will be important at this pivotal point in the supply/demand mix). OSH, STO and WPL should be the main beneficiaries, but I also suspect that TAP could maybe try to re-test those previous highs.


Sorry for the oil bias guys, but it is more my patch.

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Dow futures up strongly ATM after Texas Instruments raised its earnings estimate.


Dow CBOT $10 futures currently up 24 points.


Nasdaq 100 futures currently up 6 points. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...


New Home Construction Climbs in May




Does anyone else realise the lag between building and house prices? US property market is prime for a dive. A surplus of houses coming onto the market (from builders chasing high house prices) combined with rising interest rates. A nasty mix. I'd give it 12 months, so until then, things should be pretty good for the economy in general. However, I still expect any evaporation in wealth from property may not be such a bad thing for equities as people look to them once again for investment returns. As a result, I expect a buoyant equity market for the next 9-12 months and then a period of stagnation for 6 months. I favour iron ore, nickel and oil companies currently and disagree strongly with broker conclusions of a reduction in prices over the next few months. Otherwise I favour industry related stocks, preferring to stay away from consumer related stocks because of the reduction or apparent reduction in wealth of consumers from the stagnation or even decrease in property prices.


Would love someone else to comment on my conclusions! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/graduated.gif

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  • 3 years later...

In reply to: theflasherman on Friday 17/06/05 07:07am

TF: And how prophetic was that!!!



Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. companies slashed payrolls last month at the fastest pace in 34 years as the economy headed for its deepest and longest recession since World War II.


Employers cut 533,000 jobs, bringing losses so far this year to 1.91 million, the Labor Department said today in Washington. NovemberÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s drop exceeded all 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, the highest level since 1993.


ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ItÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s unbelievable,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re well on our way to the worst recession of the postwar period.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ etc etc.



In the face of the worst US employment news for decades the market RISES over 3%, so what do SS members make of that?



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In reply to: flower on Saturday 06/12/08 08:21am

"In the face of the worst US employment news for decades the market RISES over 3%, so what do SS members make of that?"


PPT and other U.S. agencies and quasi govt agencies interfering in the so called free market http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/lmaosmiley.gif


another kind of bailout?


The market will do what it has to do, the interference can only slow this process down, but cannot stop it going where it needs to go.

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