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In the awesome fictional narrative of a future economic collapse that Kimber posted below (http://www.goldismoney.info/forums/...read.php?t=5690), here's my take on what happens after the narrative ends, if the crash plays out as described in the story:

At the end of 2006, after suffering from hyperinflation in the dollar collapse, the U.S. has adopted the euro and is in the worst depression it's ever been in. Is this the end of the bout of rampant inflation? Hardly!

With the euro as the world's official currency, and with little or no competing currencies, the euro can be inflated like there's no tomorrow without suffering a selloff. And with the U.S. in the middle of the "winter half" of the 35-year market cycle, this inflation will push basic consumer prices (i.e., food, gas, etc.) in euros skyward. By 2015, gasoline would cost nearly E20.00 per gallon, with gold at or above E10,000 per ounce as the depression worsened! Then Great Depression 2 would end in a disinflationary commodities bust as happened in the early 1980s, which would be at the ultimate bottom in 2017.

At this time the Dow would be near 8,000 points, and 20 of the 30 Dow components would be different companies! The "summer half" of the market cycle would be starting again around this time, with euro inflation pushing prices in stocks, bonds, and real estate way up for the next 15 to 20 years as commodities stagnate or rise slowly.
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  • 1 year later...

Next Week: Spotlight turns back to economy

Aug 26 12:15

Jim Parker

 

 

With July readings on retail trade and the trade balance on Tuesday, followed by building approvals and credit growth on Wednesday.

 

Also on the schedule are pointers to the June quarter national accounts - the balance of payments on Wednesday and the private capital expenditure survey on Thursday.

 

Market economists tend to get excited about the quarterly capex and net export contributions to growth, but most people will pay more attention to the statistics bureau's June quarter house price index on Thursday.

 

The last survey showed house prices flat or falling in Sydney and Melbourne, but still rising in the other capital cities, although research commissioned by the Reserve Bank suggests prices nationally have been flat for 18 months.

 

The data on what is happening to house prices is important because it tends to influence activity indicators, such as retail trade. Data on retail turnover for May and June pointed to a revival, but some analysts think this was a false dawn.

 

"Much of the recent rebound in retail turnover was triggered by retailers bringing forward winter sales to offload unwanted inventories," JPMorgan's Australian chief economist Stephen Walters says.

 

The other key restraining influence on discretionary spending is the price of petrol. And with crude prices circling $US68 a barrel, little relief appears in store.

 

While consumers may be losing their mojo, there are few signs that businesses are following suit. That's why the quarterly investment survey on Thursday, which includes forward estimates, will be closely watched.

 

The other compensating factor for weaker domestic demand is Australia's improving terms of trade. Further confirmation of this, and a narrowing in the current account deficit from record levels, is expected in the balance of payments.

 

Northern hemisphere markets continue their summer slumber, although they may come to life late in the week when the United States' two most closely watched monthly indicators are released - the ISM manufacturing index and non-farm payrolls.

 

 

 

 

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RAKIA mate posted this gem piece of artilcle next door.....HC

 

 

Subject: FW: How Tax Works.....Interesting

 

You've heard the continuous cries that tax cuts are just for the rich - and then it's accepted as fact. But what does that statement really mean? The following explanation may help.

 

Suppose that every night, ten men go out for dinner at La Porchetta's. The bill for all ten comes to $100. They decide to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes, and it goes like this:

 

o The first four men (the poorest) paid nothing

 

o The fifth paid $1

 

o The sixth $3

 

o The seventh $7

 

o The eighth $12

 

o The ninth $18

 

o The tenth man (the richest) paid $59

 

All 10 are quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner says: "Since you are all such good customers, I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily meal by $20."

 

So now their dinner for ten only costs $80. The group still decides to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. The first four men are unaffected. They will still eat for free.

 

But how should the other six, the paying customers, divvy up the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his "fair share"?

 

They realise that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtract that from everybody's share, then the fifth and sixth men would each end up being paid to eat. The restaurateur suggests reducing each man's bill by roughly the same percentage, thus:

 

o The fifth man pays nothing (like the first four) instead of $1 (100%saving)

 

o The sixth pays $2 instead of $3 (33% saving)

 

o The seventh pays $5 instead of $7 (28% saving)

 

o The eighth pays $9 instead of $12 (25% saving)

 

o The ninth pays $14 instead of $18 (22% saving)

 

o The tenth pays $49 instead of $59 (16% saving)

 

Each of the six are better off, and the first four continue to eat for free, as now does the fifth - but outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

 

" I only got a dollar out of the $20," declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man "but he got $10!"

 

" That's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar too. It's unfair that he got ten times more than me!"

 

" That's true!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!"

 

" Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison. "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"

 

The nine men then surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

 

The next night the tenth man didn't show up for dinner. The nine sat down and ate without him, but when they came to pay the bill, they discovered that they didn't have enough money between all of them to meet even half of the bill!

 

That, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up at the table anymore.

 

There are lots of good restaurants in Monaco and the Caribbean.

 

David R. Kamerschen, Professor of Economics, University of NSW.

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Kremlin Ready to Defend Iran

 

http://www.mosnews.com/column/2005/09/13/iransupported.shtml

 

Created: 13.09.2005 12:51 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 12:51 MSK, 39 minutes ago

 

Mikhail Zygar, Dmitry Sidorov

 

Kommersant.ru

 

 

Iranian Vice President Gholamreza Aghazadeh arrived in Moscow Monday. The main subject of his negotiations is the upcoming discussion of IranÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s nuclear program by the IAEA. Moscow has more or less decided to support Tehran during the decisive voting at IAEA in a week ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ support which could cause the Kremlin a lot of problems.

 

This is extremely important for the new Iranian authorities. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad swept to victory during JulyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s presidential elections in Iran. However, until now he has been a very obscure figure in the political arena. TehranÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s foreign partners have only been able to judge the character of the new Iranian head of state by his harsh statements and the make-up of his cabinet ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ conservative politicians, who support the active development of a nuclear program.

 

And only now, almost two months after the election, the world is finally introduced to the new Iranian leadership. On Monday Russian diplomats met the new Iranian vice president. On Wednesday, the new president of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will go to New York to participate in a session of the UN General Assembly.

 

The U.S. has a difficult relationship with Ahmadinejad ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ he is accused of participating in the taking of U.S. hostages at the U.S. embassy in Iran in 1979. However, the State Department granted him a U.S. visa to attend the summit of world leaders at the United Nations next week. Department of State Spokesman Sean McCormack said the decision was based on U.S. obligations as host country for the United Nations. Ahmadinejad will address the UN General Assembly to brief the world community on the Islamic republicÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s new nuclear initiative. His itinerary does not include plans of direct negotiations with Western leaders; however, he made plans to meet with Vladimir Putin.

 

Finally, there is another element to the new Iranian leadershipÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s world presentation, and probably the most important one ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ the IAEA session. This session will be a serious trial for Tehran. The U.S. and EU will be insisting on transferring the Iranian case to the UN Security Council for consideration.

 

The future of the relationship between the West and Iran will depend a lot on the results of this visit. Some time ago Iranian authorities consciously moved to heighten tensions between Tehran and the United States, and to a lesser degree with the EU. The new Iranian leadership refused to follow the obligations that Tehran had undertaken earlier ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ to suspend the enrichment of uranium and to delay the restarting of work at the nuclear center in Isfahan, which was shut down a year ago.

 

By increasing the tensions, Iranian authorities are trying to achieve several goals. First of all, they think that by using harsh rhetoric, they can gain more leeway from the West. Secondly, increased international tensions help to improve the situation inside of Iran ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ the presence of a common enemy consolidates society. To successfully reach these goals there are two necessary conditions: Tehran hopes that its enemy will back off under the pressure, while it wants to have reliable allies like Russia and China, which can defend Iran from the Americans and Europeans. This week should show if the Iranian authorities have calculated everything correctly.

 

Yesterday, Gholamreza Aghazadeh had negotiations with RussiaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, Alexander Rumyantsev, head of Rosatom, and Igor Ivanov, the secretary of the Security Council. Russia is one of IranÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s most important partners. At the end of next year Russian specialists should finish the construction of a nuclear power plant in Bushehr. Moreover, at the beginning of this year, the Iranian parliament approved a decision to announce an international tender for the construction of 20 more nuclear power plants over the next 20 years. Aghazadeh, the head of Iranian delegation to IAEA, was persistent yesterday in reminding Moscow about the profitability of close economic and political cooperation with Iran.

 

In recent days Russia has been showing clear support to Iran. Lavrov, for instance, said that Moscow does not see the necessity to pass the Iranian dossier to the UN Security Council. However, during the course of yesterdayÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s negotiations Russia tried to persuade Iran not to continue building up tension, which could spoil the KremlinÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s relations with the West. Moscow tried to talk Iran into reconsidering the decision to launch IsfahanÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s uranium enrichment process and return to moratorium status. Russian negotiators also tried to explain to the vice president the bad timing of the challenge to the U.S. in this volatile situation.

 

Russian authorities are relying on the fact that the world community will not want to punish Iran too severely and that the Europeans will not vote to transfer the dossier to the UN Security Council. Ariel Cohen, an expert with the Heritage Foundation, who participated in a meeting with Putin, Ivanov and Lavrov in Moscow, told Kommersant that ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“on the Iran subject they were telling mutually exclusive things: from one side ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ the Russian position is close to the EuropeansÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢, but from the other side ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ the Kremlin is against passing the dossier to the UN Security Council.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

 

According to CohenÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s opinion, ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Russia does not want to spoil its relationship with Iran, because it sees Tehran as a member of a multi-polar coalition, which also includes China, and plays a role of the counter-balance for the U.S.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

 

Comparing the position of Moscow with the European ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“troikaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ point of view, Cohen thinks that they are totally opposite: ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Once talking in Paris with consultants of the defense ministry of France, I understood that they hold an even tougher position on Iran that the USA. The French really want to see the Iranian dossier discussed in the UN Security Council.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

 

According to HeritageÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s expert, such a harsh French stance towards Tehran can be explained by the ruined understanding of the development perspective of the Iranian military nuclear program, which was reached in negotiations with the European ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“troikaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Ex-president Khatami, and maybe even representatives of Rafsanjani (ex-president, and a candidate in recent presidential elections, who lost to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Kommersant) promised to suspend their military nuclear program on the Japanese level,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Cohen said. Now that the new administration has rejected all the previous agreements, the Europeans feel cheated and eager to punish Iran.

 

In the meantime, while the representatives of the European powers ask the IAEA to support their demand about transferring the Iranian dossier to the UN Security Council, Iran is using counter-propaganda. Before the IAEA session, high-ranking Iranian representatives made several simultaneous foreign trips. Currently they are trying to persuade as many countries as possible, which are represented in IAEA governing council, not to vote for the transfer of the Iranian case to the UN Security Council. However, analysts think that there are very few countries that have been persuaded. Brazil and Pakistan will definitely be voting for the Iranian position. It is possible that they will be joined by Malaysia and South Africa ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ they are part of the Non-Alliance Movement, which already officially announced its support to Iran. The position of India is unclear ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ it could support Tehran, but by doing so it will put itself in danger. Two months ago, New Delhi and Washington signed an agreement of nuclear cooperation, which is currently being ratified in Congress. If India votes the ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“wrong wayÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ, then congress could kill the ratification process.

 

Finally, Tehran relies on Russian and Chinese support. During a conversation with Kommersant, Alexander Kamyzin, first deputy of the Russian mission at the UN, said that ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Russia wants to see the resolution of the Iranian situation within the IAEA.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ The diplomat stated that ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Iran did not break any legal agreements.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ However, he also said that ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“the refusal of Iran from its voluntary obligations is upsetting.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

 

In the meantime, a source in Russian diplomatic circles in New York openly stated to Kommersant that ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Moscow is afraid of an escalation if the UN Security Council examines the Iranian problem.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ According to the sourceÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s opinion, ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“this issue is politically charged and can bring the situation to a dead end. It is necessary to wait until the Iranian president gives a speech in the UN, where he plans to present his proposals.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

 

Neither Kamyzin, nor KommersantÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s source in diplomatic circles in New York wanted to discuss how Russia would vote in the IAEA about transferring the Iranian case to the UN Security Council. However, even if Iran gets the support of Russia, China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, Malaysia and South Africa, that would not resolve the issue. The governing body of the IAEA does not have a veto right and decisions are made by a simple majority. Seven votes for Iran might not be enough ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ there are 25 countries in the governing body of the IAEA. Most likely, a majority of them will vote against Iran together with the U.S. and the European ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“troikaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ. In this case, the UN Security Council, which would examine the issue of IranÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s nuclear program, can demand that Tehran stops uranium enrichment.

 

If Tehran lost in the IAEA, its position would be undermined. The countries supporting Iran will find themselves in a no less complicated situation. For instance, Russia might get involved in a conflict with the G8 countries in the year when it holds the chairmanship.

 

 

Hummmm.... It's going to be very interesting this development.... http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ph34r.gif

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  • 3 weeks later...

PHEWWWWW !

 

All the Big Boyz are exchanging papers in masses this Friday morning...

 

Stock Code Description Total Volume Total Trades Total Value Mkt Cap Close Buy Sell Open High Low Last Change % Change Index Contribution

BHP BHP BLT FPO 33401438 267 691872448.0000 80642737881 22.4800 25.0000 17.0000 0 0

LHG LIHIR FPO 10T 20245000 112 30089700.0000 2440026949 1.9000 2.0100 1.7500 0 0

TLS TELSTRA FPO 19132699 113 89946792.0000 24767935704 4.1300 4.8000 3.9200 0 0

RIO RIO TINTO FPO 13452500 319 579559872.0000 27391046913 60.0100 63.0000 57.6100 0 0

AWC ALUMINA FPO 7918000 62 46105752.0000 6982890888 6.0000 6.3000 5.9900 0 0

WOW WOOLWORTHS FPO 6511000 62 106283000.0000 17683472601 16.6200 24.6500 16.0000 0 0

NWS NEWSCORP B VOTING 6180500 144 127076288.0000 28692859997 21.3600 21.5000 20.9300 0 0

NAB NAT. BANK FPO 5520000 145 171702496.0000 52624233385 33.6000 35.0000 31.0000 0 0

ANZ ANZ BANK FPO 4995000 120 107994600.0000 44318723268 24.2700 25.0000 23.5000 0 0

CBA CWLTH BANK FPO 4702078 94 145328352.0000 49643460915 38.7500 40.5000 38.0000 0 0

WPL WOODSIDE FPO 4471000 165 143801616.0000 23973333345 35.9600 36.6700 35.8000 0 0

 

Look BHP >>>

 

Time Price Volume Value Conditions Attributes BuyXRef SellXRef

30/09/2005 09:28:34 22.48 117438 2640006.24 OSXT O

30/09/2005 09:27:49 21.9 500000 10950000.00 OSXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:10 23.5 16000 376000.00 EP O

30/09/2005 07:06:10 23.5 6000 141000.00 EPXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:10 22.5 22000 495000.00 EP O

30/09/2005 07:06:10 22.5 15000 337500.00 EP O

30/09/2005 07:06:10 22.5 26000 585000.00 EP O

30/09/2005 07:06:10 22.5 20000 450000.00 EP O

30/09/2005 07:06:09 22.5 1000 22500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:09 22.5 18000 405000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:09 22.5 44000 990000.00 EP O

30/09/2005 07:06:09 22.5 63000 1417500.00 EP O

30/09/2005 07:06:09 22.5 30000 675000.00 EPXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:09 22.5 1000 22500.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:09 22 44000 968000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:09 22 133000 2926000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:09 22 225000 4950000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 2000 44000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 28000 616000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 3000 66000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 10000 220000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 3000 66000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 27000 594000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 435000 9570000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 44000 968000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 510000 11220000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:08 22 2213000 48686000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:07 22 1192000 26224000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:07 22 19000 418000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:07 22 10000 220000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:07 22 2000 44000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:07 22 1153000 25366000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:07 22 102000 2244000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:07 22 92000 2024000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:07 22 3000 66000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:07 22 1000 22000.00 EC O

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30/09/2005 07:06:06 22 20000 440000.00 EC O

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30/09/2005 07:06:06 22 1143000 25146000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:06 22 22000 484000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:06 22 8000 176000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:06 22 278000 6116000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:06 22 28000 616000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:06 22 92000 2024000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:05 22 92000 2024000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:05 22 434000 9548000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:05 21.5 26000 559000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:05 21.5 12000 258000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:05 21.5 36000 774000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:05 21.5 50000 1075000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:05 21.5 40000 860000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:05 21.5 702000 15093000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:05 21.5 1000 21500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:04 21.5 10000 215000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:04 21.5 500000 10750000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:04 21.5 1000 21500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:04 21.5 15000 322500.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:04 21.5 84000 1806000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:04 21.5 2000 43000.00 EC O

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30/09/2005 07:06:04 21.5 1000 21500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:04 21.5 20000 430000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:03 21.5 36000 774000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:03 21.5 106000 2279000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:03 21.5 198000 4257000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:03 21.5 20000 430000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:03 21.5 1123000 24144500.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:03 21.5 30000 645000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:03 21.5 15000 322500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:03 21.5 10000 215000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:03 21.5 2000 43000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:02 21.5 50000 1075000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:02 21.5 25000 537500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:02 21.5 109000 2343500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:02 21.5 8000 172000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:02 21.5 495000 10642500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:02 21.5 38000 817000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:02 21.5 821000 17651500.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:02 21.5 53000 1139500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:02 21.5 66000 1419000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21.5 155000 3332500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21 60000 1260000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21 8000 168000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21 30000 630000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21 706000 14826000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21 20000 420000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21 1000 21000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21 3000 63000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21 39000 819000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:01 21 56000 1176000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:00 21 2000 42000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:00 21 50000 1050000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:00 21 477000 10017000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:00 21 20000 420000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:00 21 183000 3843000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:00 21 9000 189000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:00 21 727000 15267000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:06:00 21 15000 315000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:06:00 21 439000 9219000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:59 21 163000 3423000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:59 21 100000 2100000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:59 21 21000 441000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:59 21 9000 189000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:59 21 154000 3234000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:59 21 65000 1365000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:59 21 15000 315000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:59 21 17000 357000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:59 21 5000 105000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:58 21 1525000 32025000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:58 21 18000 378000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:58 21 78000 1638000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:58 21 54000 1134000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:58 21 18000 378000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:58 21 200000 4200000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:58 20.99 2000 41980.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:58 20.99 20000 419800.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:58 20.99 10000 209900.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:57 20.99 6000 125940.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:57 20.99 1000 20990.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:57 20.99 32000 671680.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:57 20.99 25000 524750.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:57 20.5 496000 10168000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:57 20.5 11000 225500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:57 20.5 5000 102500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:57 20.5 12000 246000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:57 20.5 80000 1640000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:56 20.5 35000 717500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:56 20.5 60000 1230000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:56 20.5 26000 533000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:56 20.5 284000 5822000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:56 20.5 117000 2398500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:56 20.5 174000 3567000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:56 20.5 30000 615000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:56 20.5 5000 102500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:56 20.5 3000 61500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:55 20.5 32000 656000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:55 20.5 1000 20500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:55 20.5 650000 13325000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:55 20.5 69000 1414500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:55 20.5 160000 3280000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:55 20.5 78000 1599000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:55 20.5 10000 205000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:55 20.5 76000 1558000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:55 20.5 25000 512500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:54 20.5 34000 697000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:54 20.5 6000 123000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:54 20.5 118000 2419000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:54 20.5 5000 102500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:54 20.5 1000 20500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:54 20.5 57000 1168500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:54 20.5 80000 1640000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:54 20.5 1630000 33415000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:54 20.5 300000 6150000.00 EC O

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30/09/2005 07:05:53 20 10000 200000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:53 20 3000 60000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:53 20 37000 740000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:53 20 697000 13940000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:53 20 1000 20000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:53 20 18000 360000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:53 20 29000 580000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:53 20 156000 3120000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:53 20 9000 180000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:52 20 213000 4260000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:52 20 185000 3700000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:52 20 1000 20000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:52 20 1462000 29240000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:52 20 15000 300000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:52 20 2000 40000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:52 20 19000 380000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:52 20 24000 480000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:52 20 104000 2080000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:51 20 5000 100000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:51 20 743000 14860000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:51 20 4000 80000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:51 20 1485000 29700000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:51 20 14000 280000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:51 20 106000 2120000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:51 20 3000 60000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:51 20 20000 400000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:51 20 12000 240000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:50 20 108000 2160000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:50 20 928000 18560000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:50 19.5 2000 39000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:50 19.5 73000 1423500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:50 19.5 4000 78000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:50 19.5 5000 97500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:50 19.5 20000 390000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:50 19.5 124000 2418000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:50 19.5 16000 312000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:49 19.5 85000 1657500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:49 19.5 2000 39000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:49 19.5 196000 3822000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:49 19.5 38000 741000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:49 19.5 113000 2203500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:49 19.5 1000 19500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:49 19.5 307000 5986500.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:49 19.5 7000 136500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:49 19.5 266000 5187000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:48 19.5 6000 117000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:48 19.5 121000 2359500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:48 19.5 1000 19500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:48 19.5 57000 1111500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:48 19.5 34000 663000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:48 19 1000 19000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:48 19 1000 19000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:48 19 10000 190000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:48 19 12000 228000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 14000 266000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 1000 19000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 6000 114000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 24000 456000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 2000 38000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 20000 380000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 4000 76000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 10000 190000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 1000 19000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:47 19 93000 1767000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:46 19 16000 304000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:46 18.5 12000 222000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:46 18.5 5000 92500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:46 18.5 5000 92500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:46 18.5 1000 18500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:46 18.5 8000 148000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:46 18.5 1000 18500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:46 18.5 10000 185000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:46 18.5 3000 55500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:45 18.5 6000 111000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:45 18 2000 36000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:45 18 23000 414000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:45 18 2000 36000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:45 18 5000 90000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:45 18 1000 18000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:45 18 12000 216000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:45 18 25000 450000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:45 18 3000 54000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:44 18 20000 360000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:44 18 5000 90000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:44 18 52000 936000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:44 17.5 9000 157500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:44 17.5 3000 52500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:44 17.5 20000 350000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:44 17.5 3000 52500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:44 17.5 3000 52500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:44 17.5 35000 612500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:43 17.5 8000 140000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:43 17.5 1000 17500.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:43 17 4000 68000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:43 17 3000 51000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:43 17 1000 17000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:43 17 17000 289000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:43 17 1000 17000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:43 17 1000 17000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:43 16.5 2000 33000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:42 16.5 1000 16500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:42 16 6000 96000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:42 16 11000 176000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:42 16 1000 16000.00 ECXT O

30/09/2005 07:05:42 15.5 1000 15500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:42 14.5 2000 29000.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:42 14.5 3000 43500.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:42 0.01 162000 1620.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:42 0.01 30000 300.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:41 0.01 10000 100.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:41 0.01 110000 1100.00 EC O

30/09/2005 07:05:41 0.01 128000 1280.00 EC O

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http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,1...197-462,00.html

 

QUOTE
Consumer glooms grows
From: AAP
October 12, 2005

AUSTRALIAN consumer sentiment fell to a two-and-a-half year low in October, weighed down by sharp share market falls and stubbornly high petrol prices, a survey has found.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell 1.6 per cent to 98.7 in October from 100.3 in September.
An index below 100 indicates pessimistic sentiment outweighs optimistic sentiment.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the result was very surprising given steady interest rates and a retreat in petrol prices since the last survey.

"Negative factors for consumers must include the 4.2 per cent collapse in the share market in the days leading up to the survey," Mr Evans said.
QUOTE
RBA warns on rate rise
From: 
October 12, 2005

HIGHER petrol prices are hitting household budgets and have raised the spectre of a rise in inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia says.

Central bankers around the world were grappling with the question of how to respond to higher energy costs, although current thinking was that it posed no immediate threat, RBA deputy governor Glenn Stevens said yesterday.
"The issue before us in the next year or two is whether the world and Australian economies can adapt to higher energy and resources prices without a significant bout of inflation," Mr Stevens told the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Hobart last night.

If inflation was to rise quickly, and for an extended period, there would be a clear case for a monetary policy response in the form of higher interest rates.

 

Hummmm... Christmas just around the corner...it will be interesting to watch the figures rolling.... http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ph34r.gif

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Interesting or disgusting ???? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ph34r.gif

BTW look at the last paragraph....hummmm

 

Wall Street Bonuses, Refco Bankruptcy Filing Top Most-Read List

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The following list comprises the most-read Bloomberg News reports from the past week.

 

To read any article, click on the story links shown below or go to {NI READS <GO>}. To print the top 10 stories, click on {CNP 05961550114 <GO>}. See {NI READ <GO>} for previous lists of the most-viewed stories.

 

 

 

 

STORIES

1. Bonuses on Wall Street Spur H2, Lamborghini Sales (10/17)

2. Refco Files 4th-Largest Bankruptcy in U.S. History (10/18)

3. Refco Set to Sell Futures Broker to Flowers-Led Group (10/17)

4. JPMorgan Profit Surges 78%; Dimon Will Be CEO Dec. 31 (10/19)

5. GM Has Health-Care Deal, Seeks GMAC Buyer After Loss (10/17)

6. Flowers Brings Goldman Sachs, Harvard Links to Refco (10/18)

7. Fidelity Presses Brokers to Split Trading, Research (10/20)

8. Merrill Has Record Net, Caps Best Wall Street 3rd Qtr (10/18)

9. Citigroup Net Rises to Record on Travelers Sale Gain (10/17)

10. Pfizer Net Plunges 52% on Lower Sales, Purchase Costs (10/20)

 

COLUMNS

1. Are You Weird Enough to See Profit in Katrina? (10/20)

2. Greenspan Isn't Signaling Rate-Increase Pause (10/20)

3. Housing Prices May Get Doused by U.S. Tax Revision (10/17)

4. Refco's Scandal Is That It Follows Many Scandals (10/21)

5. Academics Discover `Flipping' in Muni Bond Market (10/21)

 

MULTIMEDIA

1. RCM's MacDonald: Roche, Technology, Mining Stocks (10/19)

2. ICAP's Tinker: Novartis Profit, Drug, Steel Stocks (10/18)

3. Barclays's Dugan: Philips, Earnings, Stock Strategy (10/17)

4. General Motors' Wagoner Speaks: UAW Agreement, Loss (10/17)

5. Schroder's Brough: Ericsson, BSkyB, PartyGaming (10/21)

 

**Lists are based on daily statistics through Friday.

STORIES

 

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Andy Brough, a fund manager at Schroder Investment Management, talks with Bloomberg's Nigel Stevenson and Guy Collins in London about Ericsson AB's third- quarter profit reported today, British Sky Broadcasting Plc's offer to buy Easynet Group Plc for 211 million pounds ($374 million), and his investment strategy on the shares of PartyGaming Plc and GlaxoSmithKline Plc. {NXTW NSN IOPFM61A1I4H <GO>}

 

Last Updated: October 22, 2005 10:39 EDT

 

For the full story go to

 

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...id=aR7g9gqZBr3g

 

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In reply to: trader10 on Sunday 23/10/05 10:49am

Opppss...Sorry.....correction last post was by accident the wrong one....

 

read the article here for Refco Inc.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/specialreport/index.html

 

 

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Why 70% of mergers failÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦

 

 

 

Monday, November 14, 2005

IN THIS edition of Simply Boardroom, Allan Trench* researches whether getting bigger by buying up your competitors is smart.

 

Mergers and takeovers are all the rage in the mining industry as record commodity prices leave companies with lots of cash to play with. Swollen balance sheets amongst the major miners are growing quicker than their requirement for capital expenditure to feed the pipeline of new mining projects.

 

So what better place for this cash than to put it to good use and takeover one's rivals? The rationale is simple: After the acquisition, even greater wads of cash from a larger portfolio of operations will come rolling in.

 

Some smart executives are also looking to use shares as part or in full consideration of the asking price of target companies. And whilst no sane managing director will publicly admit that his stock price is ever inflated, surely it makes more sense to issue highly-price equity courtesy of the recent market bull run over the cheap shares of previous years in growing the company?

 

Recent examples support this thesis. After all, Xstrata timed their run at MIM to perfection before rising commodity prices kicked in. And surely BHP Billiton has the balance sheet and lower cost of capital to make the most of WMC's on-again, off-again, Olympic Dam expansions?

 

There's also the logic that the world's fund managers can only invest in companies of a certain critical mass ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ their investment criteria don't allow them to play at the riskier, small end of the market. So to get on the global investment radar, it is no surprise that executives view M&A activity as the way forward.

 

But like all buying and selling activity: the M&A game can create clear winners and losers. Despite rhetoric to the contrary, not all transactions fall into the much-touted "win-win" box for shareholders of both the acquiring company and those of the target.

 

The usual winners? You guessed it. The shareholders of the target company generally prevail on an investment-returns basis even though their company becomes victim to a larger predator.

 

The track record of larger companies paying "too much" across not only the mining industry, but all sectors of the market, is a well-documented one. A multitude of academic studies puts the success rate for M&A at around 30%. That is, the expanded company subsequently performs less well than its predecessors in the majority of cases.

 

So let's do the maths. The first thing we need to ascertain is how much acquisitions cost. The key numbers to compare here are the ultimate share price paid to acquire the target company compared with the share price of the target company one day prior to the takeover bid being made.

 

Records of five Australian gold-sector takeovers that were sitting around on my laptop put this average at a whopping 64%. More systematic academic studies usually come up with an average of around 40%. So acquirers are paying a pretty significant premium for the privilege of owning their rival's assets ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ and that's even before they've paid their investment advisors. Fees here are not insignificant; so add on another 3-5% for good measure.

 

The next thing we need to think about is where all that extra acquisition cost will be clawed back from. The usual candidates, in no particular order, are corporate synergies (read head office staff cuts), operational synergies, a lower cost of debt for the combined entity, disposal of certain non-core assets and greater market pricing power (both in procurement and in sales).

 

So perhaps we need look no further than these assumptions for the answer to why 70% of mergers fail. Maybe it sits right there. Bullish investment bankers tend to over-estimate the synergies and the financial gains to the acquirer ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ and under-estimate the acquisition premium that needs to be paid. This is, of course, natural: Advisors have a vested interest in transactions proceeding. If the proposed acquisitions get shelved ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ then you can kiss goodbye to those advisory fees. Managers too, will tend to push acquisitions forward in the hope of sitting at the helm of larger companies.

 

Armed with these numbers, let's see what it would take to increase the operational value of a mining asset by around 40% assuming we'd paid too much for it courtesy of an "average" M&A transaction.

 

Taking a hypothetical gold mine with around 350,000 ounces a year production and a 2.5 million ounce remaining reserve, the task appears quite a tough one. Leaving the lottery of the gold price aside, the new owner would certainly need to be a far better operator of the mine than the old one. To get a 40% increase in overall asset value, one scenario of the indicative requirements suggests increased recovery of around 2%, increased throughput of 5% (without capital expenditure), discovery of an extra 1 million ounces of reserve to extend the mine life and a 5% immediate operating cost-reduction.

 

Whilst far from impossible, that lot might take some doing. In fact, perhaps it's surprising that 30% of acquisitions do add value!?

 

So what of the numbers on the proposed Barrick-Placer takeover currently making the headlines? You guessed it. Placer shares immediately jumped over 20% on news of the Barrick bid.

 

If the deal is consummated at a mere 20% premium, then Barrick will have at least beaten the odds on the first part of the equation. But the hard part may still be in the post-merger management phase.

 

* Allan Trench is Adjunct Professor of Mine Management & Mineral Economics, Western Australian School of Mines and is a Non-Executive Director of Heron Resources and Pioneer Nickel.

 

 

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Tyre trouble

 

 

 

Thursday, November 17, 2005

HAUL trucks and other earthmoving equipment up on blocks could become a regular sight around Australia as the earthmover tyre shortage continues to bite. By Noel Dyson

 

It's no secret that the huge demand for resources has created a shortage of earthmover tyres, but what may come as a surprise is its severity.

 

Experts in the industry agree the shortage is the worst they have seen and that companies need to aim for a 25% tyre-life extension from current stocks to help them get through the shortage.

 

Even more worrying are growing reports of "owner's risk" repairs and tyre-use practices said to be bordering on dangerous. One such report had it that dump trucks were being run on four tyres instead of the required six.

 

The shortage, which seems unlikely to abate for at least two years, has been most obviously manifested in the earthmover tyre price leaping from $US20,000 to $US60,000. Reports abound of new earthmoving equipment being sold with tyres not included.

 

China's demand for resources is being blamed for the shortage. Experts are tipping that country's demand is not likely to slacken until 2008.

 

To boost their production and meet Chinese demand, some mining companies are running old fleet they would normally have retired alongside new equipment, which in turn puts an extra burden on tyre supplies.

 

And China is not the only burgeoning economy out there. India looms as another major market for Australia's mineral resources.

 

Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ the major earthmover tyre makers ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ have factored in the increased demand but have been wary of the big investment that would be needed to substantially increase capacity. Their reluctance is understandable, given it can take up to 2-1/2 years to build a new plant.

 

Also, these tyres are only a small part of their markets and the only part of their business experiencing a shortage. Other tyre categories such as trucks and passenger cars are plentiful.

 

Bridgestone spokesman Andrew Andreou said the decision to increase earthmover tyre production was a tough one.

 

In spite of the risk, however, there has been some capacity increase. Bridgestone has announced it will expand its capacity for large and ultra-large radial tyres and Michelin is building a new plant in Brazil that will service its earthmover tyre customers in the Americas.

 

Neither company's expansions will come on-line for at least another two years. While the news is welcome, it is not expected to have much impact on the shortage.

 

Other options such as retreading ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ not widely used in Australia ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ and repair are coming to the fore. Repairers report unprecedented demand.

 

Bias ply tyres out of Belarus are emerging as an option. The former Soviet republic is well known for the manufacture of trucks and farm equipment, and the Belshina tyre plant began producing the earthmover tyres about 10 years ago, which was about five years after Australian mines stopped using bias-ply tyres.

 

Such is the demand, the bias-ply tyres are reportedly selling for more than similar-sized radial tyres.

 

Second-hand tyres are becoming an option too. Taking that to the extreme, there have been reports of companies reclaiming tyres they had buried as markers on haul roads or even donated to speedways and the like, cleaning them off and reusing them.

 

Given that the shortages are not going to end soon, the focus has to go on getting the most out of tyres.

 

Experts say there are four keys: choose the right tyres for the job; keep them properly maintained; ensure the people responsible for the tyres are properly trained; and keep haul roads and the like in optimum condition.

 

Andy Tooth, Michelin Australia regional product line manager for earthmovers, said tyre manufacturers could play a role in helping companies get the most out of their tyres.

 

"Most of our focus is on working with mining companies to help them extend tyre life," he said.

 

Tony Cutler, technical manager with leading tyre management consultant Otraco International, said everyone on-site had to become tyre aware if they were to keep their equipment running through the tyre shortage. - CONTRACTOR

 

 

 

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