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theflasherman

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Crude oil closed higher again at $75.42 (+1.96%), in line with our expectation for a test and break of the $76.98 high. Due to the tightening of the supply and demand imbalance, some panic buying/overshoot into the low $80’s cannot be rule out in the coming weeks. Iron ore closed at $118.65 p/t (+8.50%). The latest leg of the recovery is likely due to pre-stocking ahead of China’s “Golden Week” Holiday that starts Friday, October 1st and extends until October 7th. After falling below $100 p/t last week and due to the oversold nature of the sell-off, our expectation has been for a recovery back towards the $120/130 p/t. So essentially, we are just about there
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After testing the early July $76.98 high earlier in the session, crude oil reversed lower to close at $74.80 (-0.86%). A break above the $76.98 high remains our base case, with the risk of some panic buying/overshoot into the low $80’s. That said, after such a strong run higher, it would be prudent to raise the stop losses on longs to the $72.50 area, particularly as early October is traditionally the time that crude oil peaks before reversing lower. Iron ore closed lower at $112.35 p/t (-5.30%), likely due to the completion of pre-stocking ahead of China’s “Golden Week” Holiday that starts Friday, October 1st, and as limits on electricity consumption hinders steel making. After all but reaching the $120/130 p/t recovery target, it's now a case of waiting to see what happens after the Golden Week holiday period ends October 7th.
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Crude oil closed lower at $74.61 (-0.90%). A break above the $76.98 high remains our base case, with the risk of some panic buying/overshoot into the low $80’s. That said, after such a strong run higher, and as crude oil enters the seasonally weak month of October, it would be prudent to keep stops reasonably tight. Silver closed at $21.53 (-4.00%), accelerating lower after breaking below a band of technical support at $22.00. Keep an eye out for basing between $21.35 and $20.90, which includes trend channel support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the $11.64 low to the $30.14 high

 

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interesting with silver, not on board yet, but attempting... :unsure:

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Crude oil closed higher at $75.01 (+0.24%), recovering from early losses on reports that China is poised to buy more crude to meet growing demand. A break above the $76.98 high remains our base case, with the risk of some panic buying/overshoot into the low $80’s. That said, after such a strong run higher, and as crude oil enters the seasonally weaker month of October, it would be prudent to keep stops reasonably tight. Below, the trendline from the $61.82 low looks to be the right stop around $72.50ish. Silver closed higher at $22.20 (+3.00%) after holding the band of support noted yesterday between $21.35 and $20.90 (includes trend channel support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the $11.64 low to the $30.14 high). While above this support zone, silver has the potential to build upon the overnight recovery towards $24.00
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The ASX200 closed 93 points higher yesterday at 7278.5, on thin volumes as most of the country enjoyed a public holiday long weekend. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a recovery back above trend channel resistance at 7440ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete. Until then, a test of the 200 day moving average at 7090 is possible. The ASX200 is expected to open lower this morning at 7195. Resistance on the day is expected at 7250, and support viewed at 7160/50
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Crude oil made fresh multi-year highs at $79.18 (+2.01%) following a decision earlier in the week by OPEC to stick to its current output policy despite a strong rebound in demand and fears higher oil prices will undermine the post-pandemic recovery. After breaking above our long-held target of $76.98 high, the panic buying/overshoot into the low $80’s we have alluded to appears underway. Mindful that we are now in the seasonally weaker month of October, and would advise raising stops on longs to $75.00. Silver closed marginally lower at $22.64 (-0.08%). Nonetheless, while above the band of support noted last week between $21.35 and $20.90 (includes trend channel support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the $11.64 low to the $30.14 high), we remain bullish, looking for silver to extend its recovery, initially towards $24.00 before $26.00

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had little bit on silver, see how it goes today???

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Crude oil closed lower at $77.04 (-2.39%), as a rise in oil inventories prompted a round of profit-taking and initial rejection from just ahead of $80. While some buying/overshoot into the low $80’s is still possible, we remain mindful that crude oil has now entered the seasonally weaker month of October, and would advise raising stops again on longs to $75.90. Silver closed flat at $22.65 (+.10%). While above the band of support noted last week between $21.35 and $20.90 (includes trend channel support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the $11.64 low to the $30.14 high), we remain bullish, looking for silver to extend its recovery, initially towards $24.00 before $26.00.============

 

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keep think of silver, i'm stubborn !! :lol:

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Crude oil closed higher at $78.87 (+1.86%), on reports the U.S. Department of Energy is walking back plans that it was considering a release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a ban on crude oil exports, While some buying/overshoot into the low $80’s is still possible, we remain mindful that crude oil has entered the seasonally weaker month of October. Silver marked time ahead of tonight’s U.S. jobs data closing $22.58 (-0.04%). While above the band of support between $21.35 and $20.90 (includes trend channel support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the $11.64 low to the $30.14 high), we remain bullish, looking for silver to extend its recovery, initially towards $24.00 before $26.00.

 

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saw WTI price dropped under usd$76/b then buyer stepped in, saw it rallied all the way back to it's close, it is a huge reversal day.

 

 

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Crude oil closed at $79.59 (+1.65%) after trading above $80.00 for the first time since November 2014. Despite the rise in U.S. inventories last week, supply remains tight, and some overshoot into the low $80’s remains possible. A break below $74.00 would be the first sign supply tension has eased. Iron ore closed at $125.05 (+6.20%), helped higher by an assumption that Chinese steel mills will increase production as power caps are lifted, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC) urged miners to secure long-term coal supplies to generate electricity. Also helping sentiment, the CEO of Brazilian iron ore miner Vale told an industry conference that the iron ore market was “relatively tight” and it will be “more balanced” going forward.
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Crude oil closed at $80.43 (+1.36%) although well off its intraday high of $82.18, potentially providing preliminary evidence of the blow-off high/overshoot into the low $80’s we have been expecting. Mindful that a break/close below $76.00 would be needed to damage the uptrend and to indicate a deeper pullback is underway. Iron ore closed at $136.95 (+9.05%), helped higher by an assumption that Chinese steel mills will increase production as power caps are lifted and after achieving deeper than expected production cuts in August and September. The best guess now is for a period of consolidation for iron ore between $110 and $160 p/t into year end

 

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seems this study sees the short term top for the oil price??

but world energy crisis still loom large atm........

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