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theflasherman

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QUOTE (jr007 @ Thursday 15/01/09 02:43pm)

JR: "Who Killed JR"??? youre probably too young to remember the TV series!

 

Were at a fascinating stage, which is relatively clear---to me.

 

There are 4 stages to anything, I trade long stage 3 and try and sit the rest out--in general.

 

Geopolitically were going to turn topsy turvy for a few years as the balance of world power shifts.

 

At some point the USD is doomed, WHEN that happens the beneficeries will be selected commodities.

 

The CRB chart enclosed is showing great signs of basing. You will NEVER pick the bottom, but dont kid yourselves the Chinese will be the catalysts.

 

BUT: Whatever you do carry out INTENSIVE FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH into any share you enter, many will quite simply NOT EXIST relatively soon.

 

So: I'm waiting for stage 2 to move into stage 3.

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In reply to: flower on Thursday 15/01/09 03:49pm

Agree that this is a time to wait.Maybe CRB is forming a base,however it could be a very long wait before a meaningful recovery happens.The long term CRB chart shows that from 1988 to early 2004 commodities went nowhere.There is no logical reason why this couldn't be repeated.As an aside,don't agree the USD is doomed(as discussed in USD thread).A trading range--say 70 to 90 on USD Index for years is quite possible.

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Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- AustraliaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s richest woman, Gina Rinehart, has a team in China seeking partners to finance her second iron ore project and a coal mine, betting the Asian nation will succeed in engineering a recovery.

 

Rinehart, 54, daughter of the man who discovered the mines that made Australia the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s biggest iron ore exporter, expects to sign partners for both projects this year. She also wants labor laws changed to allow hiring of lower-cost overseas workers to help develop projects to increase the nationÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s mineral exports.

 

China, the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s biggest steelmaker and buyer of iron ore, is spending 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) to stimulate an economy thatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s forecast to grow in 2009 at the slowest pace in five years amid a global recession. Rinehart said separate government measures to boost demand in the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s second-biggest automobile market are also positive for steel demand.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“I have confidence that China will get it right and it will be booming again soon,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Rinehart told Bloomberg Television in an interview at the Perth head office of closely held Hancock Prospecting Pty, partner in the Hope Downs project with Rio Tinto Group. ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“This dip that we are seeing right now is a great time to focus our thoughts on how we should be doing things better.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

BDI LEAPS 15% OVERNIGHT

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Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, rose the most since at least 1985 in London as the number of idled capesizes fell to almost zero, indicating strengthening demand for iron ore.

 

Capesize rates have risen more than ninefold from a record low of $2,316 a day on Dec. 2. Steelmakers may be replenishing stocks in China after they fell 22 percent by mid-January from a record in September. Producers abroad, faced with an oversupply of iron ore, may also be shipping ore to China for storage.

 

"This has been the first day of the year when the buzz has been back," Michael Gaylard, strategic director at Freight Investor Services Ltd., a shipping-derivatives broker, said by phone from London. "There's no doubt that enquiry for physical tonnage is consistent and strong."

 

Shipping rates collapsed last year as demand slumped for steelmaking raw materials and Japan, the U.S. and Europe grappled with their first simultaneous recessions since World War II. The steel industry accounts for almost half of all dry-bulk cargo at sea, according to shipping line Golden Ocean Ltd.

 

The Baltic Dry Index advanced 168 points, or 15 percent, to 1,316 points. The gauge's 70 percent gain in 2009 is its best start to the year since at least 1986. It fell as low as 663 points on Dec. 5, the lowest since 1986, and rose to a record 11,793 points on May 20.

 

Daily rates for capesizes rose 17 percent to $21,810 a day, the highest since October. Smaller panamax ships, the largest to fit through the locks of the Panama Canal, increased 14 percent to $8,005 a day. Daily operating costs are $6,500 for capesizes and $5,000 for panamaxes, according to Erik Nikolai Stavseth, an analyst with shipbroker Lorentzen & Stemoco in Oslo. Both ships compete to haul coal and iron ore.

 

Idled Capesizes

 

There are almost no idled capesizes, Oslo-based Fearnley Fonds ASA analyst Rikard Vabo said. As much as a quarter of the world capesize fleet of about 800 ships was probably idled by owners two months ago in response to plunging rates.

 

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's third-largest producer of iron ore, said Chinese steelmakers are returning to the iron ore market after inventories were used up.

 

"You are starting to see the underlying demand of the Chinese economy," Chief Executive Officer Marius Kloppers told journalists today. "We have seen in the steel business in China that the de-stocking cycle is almost complete and that means people are coming back into the market and buying."

 

China announced in November a 4-trillion yuan ($586 billion) economic stimulus package running through 2010. That may boost infrastructure projects and steel demand.

 

Capesize forward freight agreements, derivatives used by traders to bet on future shipping rates, rose 14 percent to $30,375 a day for the second quarter. Panamax futures jumped 12 percent to $16,375 for the same period. The data are from Oslo- based broker Imarex NOS ASA.

 

Steel stocks gained, with all nine members of the Bloomberg Europe Steel Index trading higher, led by ArcelorMittal. The 13 members of the Bloomberg Metal and Mining Index also advanced, led by Kazakhmys Plc.

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Hi rossw

Is from Global Investment Strategy--Was Fuller Money. From London and been around forever.The daily free comment is always worth a read.To access the Chart Library (fantastic stuff you won't find elsewhere), a subsciption is required--rather expensive though.If you have any unusual requests I may be able to post them.

 

Just posted Dollar Index V CRB Index (Gold thread) You may be interested.

 

Cheers

 

 

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