The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?

[nipper]

Inflation is the next likely step, and when it does, with so much money slopping around , it will be big.

.... but when?

 

It is an interesting week.

 

[mullokintyre]

.

... but when?

 

April 18th 2021 is when it will be starting.

Mick

[nipper]

I presume, Mick, that would be on the It is better to be six months early than six minutes late approach to risk management and protection of your asset base?

[mullokintyre]

Got it in one.

Mick

[kiril]

What time on April 18th 2021?

[mullokintyre]

Sorry, K, I just can't be more accurate than that.

I know its a bit vague, but the tea leaves are being a bit haphazard in their repose.

Mick

[kahuna1]

Yep ...

 

well 20% less invested today than I was .... which is huge for me.

Whilst positive on the face of it ... Pfizer vaccine .... the wording and lack of releasing DATA or peer review .... oh really ? Of course want a vaccine but one that is SAFE and tested. Wording ... that symptomatic covid is avoided 90% of the time, i suppose positive but its 7 weeks of data ... with NO peer review and no real date released for scientists to examine. Much like the Gillead magic drug .... Remdesivir and its claims now with 3 very large studies saying it does NOT work ... one with 12,700- people in 10 countries verses Gilleads hand picked and supervised study results of 1,057 people and they REMOVED the very ill from their study.

 

Yes we are heading towards a vaccine. GREAT ...

How long does it work for ?

Are there any side effects ?

Already Pfizer is admitting more reactions than any other vaccine, but .... well its cousin ... the Moderna one along the same techniques sent 35% of people to hospital with extreme reactions.

I still prefer at this stage the Oxford one ... vaccine.

 

This to one side.

 

USA hit 800,000 Covid cases in 7 days..

Think about that !!!

 

Trump still claims he won. His lawyer held his press conference outside a porn shop. 4 seasons landscaping next to the porn shop ...

All this promoted at one stage a 6% rally ?

 

The fact that Biden is being blocked by A Trump appointee from doing anything to take over January 20th 2021 ... is insane. Meanwhile Trump is whipping his cult into a frenzy.

 

Lets rally stocks.

Sorry but at best Pfizer says 50 million doses by end of 2020 .. so 2 shots that's 25 million people. A lot more by end of 2021.

 

I feel that more than 6 weeks is needed to see if any side effects ... let alone bloody protection via this vaccine.

Market of course disagrees and thankfully handed me 10% gains in a few days ... on some very boring stocks and I said thanks a bunch and you can have them back.

 

Each to their own.

This timeline for vaccine deployment is unchanged for me and thats say mid 2021 .... whether it be Pfizer or the Oxford one or one of the others. TIME is needed to test and so on. Apparently not for oil which spurt 10% .... ignored what are troubling sighs for USA democracy and handover totally.

 

Have fun

[Mags]

Yep: On the back of an outcome of the USA election, and the Pfizer vaccine, I see petrol go from <97cents to >$1.50 in 3 days....

Get used to these wild price swings: The central banks have intervened so drastically that 'price discovery' is shot to shreds.And when price discovery is gone, so too is the foundation of capitalism.

If we can't discover prices accurately, we can't allocate resources correctly.

Go talk to a toyota dealer: They can't get stock. Go talk to your local retailer: They're outta stock too.

Why? Cos 1 in 5 australians is now being subsidized by the government at a level unimaginable just 10 months ago, plus all the super withdrawals. Where's all that extra money go?? They've spent it of course.

The price mechanism is massively distorted, right throughout the entire economy: From the $2 shop, to the new home builders (here in SA, the big boys are booked out for 3years!!!).

So how does an investor allocate their capital? and by implication, resources??? It's a shit show.

I've never seen anything like it.

And for ME, Imma not chasing growth of my capital: Lucky enough, I don't need to now. It's about preservation and being liquid enough to take the opportunities as they arise.

I don't have time, and nor do I want to, study the market hourly/daily, hell, I barely keep up with their annual reports.

But the big lesson the last 10 months had for me is this:The economy, and it's investors, should have been slaughtered (some were when they panic sold) but the central banks are so determined to keep asset prices high/growing, that they will complete destroy the very foundation on which it was all built.

What we are witnessing is an economy growing up, like the child of a very strict police officer/church minister: They have total control over the kid, and it behaves for a long time.

But when that kid gets past the boundaries (usually age) of the controlling factor, all hell breaks loose.

And that's what's coming later this decade: There is no happy ending here, the economic system as we knew it through the 80s and 90s is long gone, the boom of the 2000's is ancient history, post GFC was just a M&A, tech fuelled, low credit frenzy (most of it was complete phantom growth) and now, Post Sars-CoV2, is just an outright financiers wet dream realized. It can't and wont last: But it will go on for longer than most think is possible.

 

[tombeet]

Mags

The price of fuel in W.A. has been cycling like this every week for years its slowly getting to be a larger swing to probably increase profits margins. What can be done about it nothing it seems? I do agree with your bigger picture though.

 

Tom.

[kahuna1]

Yep ...

 

I agree massive price swings.

 

Ignoring all bad news .... goes to it being the end of the earth.

 

Pfizer and their vaccine, NO data and re reading the exact wording leaves me less than amused. Only time will tell.

Meanwhile USA hit yet another record today covid 19.

Orange Man still in denial.

 

Our market and global markets saw the largest sector rotation seen for years. Some dull boring stocks that they hated and I thought were low risk ... now they are gems and rise rise rise. I continue to sell into the absurdity of it.

 

Either I run out of stocks which will occur ... at some stage or we get the usual .... She loves me followed by the she hates me.

 

I would hardly call a press release which ... well ... was not followed by any data and couched in extreme terms as reasons to think the next 3-6 months will be harsh for the USA on the Covid side. Election wise, well ... if Orange man has not rolled over in 5-7 days ... the handover is going to be messy. Worse than anything in the last 240 or so years.

 

I would point out Pfizers vaccine that needs to be kept at minus 60 already was my least practical vaccine ever seen ... and to distribute it ... if it actually works beyond 120 days which will not be known till March 2021 ... makes this whole rally even more amusing.

 

In the middle of a pandemic .... with states running out of funds and hospitals about to reach 100% capacity in 15 states in the USA.

 

I wish it was not so. Yes I hope for a vaccine and safe one. Aware sadly it will take time to deploy and take effect in the USA.

 

Meanwhile the 800,000 cases in 7 days for USA is likely to hit 1 million in a week and deaths to hit new absurdities. Yes maybe lower than peaks early 2020 but only because anyone over 70 is hiding in the cellar and USA only has a tiny proportion able to afford nursing homes compared to any other nation.

We shall see. Either way cant go broke taking 10-15% profits in a few weeks. Banks even ore insane than that.

 

Patience as always.