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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?


kahuna1

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OOOH ...

how times evolve ...Some thoughts ...

 

HIDE ?

 

RUN ... its going to be long. An exit from sheer panic was offered via an equally silly bounce and took it and LOCKED in some losses as radically chopped exposure.

\To one day being given at $13 and change and day latter as the actual playing field went from bad to shocking near $17 .... Im will take anything to reduce risk and make pain of $23- and $22 and $20 purchases which well ... hurt.

 

NET loss on stuff despite at times 25% cherry picks on mayhem ... does not ... never will .. pay for exits and extreme capital preservation measures for some that saw awful falls, Many I avoided early those I did not, well .... taking a massive loss lowered by lessor gains is better than ... a very big question I have over the longer term for some despite governments best wishes, I sadly know some will ... be hit harder.

 

What was, is irrelevant and buying something for $20 and getting 8 years and 100% back in dividends I DON'T include ... just that the pain, oooh the pain.

 

It is however like a band aid. Right or wrong, this is a game changer not GFC nor 1929-32 ... but NOT far away one lost 88% and the other 56% ... not sure we get to 56% but a mere 23% down we do get a lot more pain. World as well. What was ... January 1st is NO longer the same field. GONE ... puff ...

 

 

From something else, the following and scope of this not reflected at the moment.

As we sift fact from fiction and Science battles with imbeciles and revisionist propaganda so disgraceful my contempt for USA leadership and Oligarch and Kleptocracy is ... disgust for what they have done to the normal common yank.

 

Anyhow ... from something else. Two ways to approach CV19 and virus actually seems to thrive upon idiots decisions. As the horror and likely cures go out the window and if anything the proposed timeline is now ... awful and a not well tested vaccine from the USA inspires me as much as their testing at 1% the level of say Canada on 1st March or our levels.

Anyhow ... sorry ... in a rush ... Read MFF monthly ASX release ... and read between the lines of the best fund manager Australia has. Ignore the MFG one ... unless your ... wishing for pain. Or follow it if your a devoted MMT Chicago economics person or a Trump follower . LEVERAGE .... all will NOT be well ... I joke sadly.

 

enuf ...

88888888888888888888888888888888

CV19 is special.

 

MERS and SARS as some are aware was hard to spread, via one showed symptoms to be able to.

As such a perfectly normal person walked around and when ill, and only ill was infectious.

 

CV19 whilst WHO some may think dropped the ball, or China, reality is by 30 Dec 2019 weeks after first infection WHO despite being lobotomized by USA and cuts, issued its first warning then again 8th Jan and for the 5th time ever .... 30th Jan 2020 a full emergency.

 

Whilst having opinions.... facts verses actions and science dictates.

Why WHO declared an emergency was contained in the 30th Jan release. CV19 was twice as infectious as SARS and MERS ... and spread when no sign of infection was evident via symptoms making it whilst less life threatening than its closest relations, 10 times more deadly via diabolical spread rates.

 

I would agree, we have NOT even started, we are in act1 science one in relation to the impacts and ending of this event.

 

Each nation chose to act. Australia acted accordingly and whilst not berserk like others like South Korea even our March 1 total tests was 100 times USA response. they had done 2,000 tests for 329 million people, Canada and other similar.

 

With a vaccine a long way off, longer than I thought at 9 months till meaningful deployment and likely 12 or more, we go into hibernation for a long while. Globally still DENIAL is the common theme. Being locked up for 6 weeks will NOT stop outbreaks popping up again and again till a vaccine is out there. A Prophylactic or Antiviral agent that works if infected or the former protects from getting infected, is NOT going to occur sooner than a vaccine.

 

MERS and SARS were a massive hit to Asia but quite different animals. In the end via testing people who developed symptoms and only then became contagious the two closest relations die out on their own.

 

SARS did get a vaccine. SARS1, and not one spoken about much because despite an awful mortality rate the vaccine was WORSE than the virus itself so to be blunt that's bloody hard when it already was deadly. Of course we are 2020 and not 2003, still without time and to see side effects and all of them via new vaccine or therapy, its clear any shortcuts will and likely will be a mistake.

 

The world is in two camps, economically and socially with developed nations. A displayed indifference for the welfare of the masses and those who are NOT. At this time. already strained relations are going bust. Stealing masks of one nation off the Tarmac or hijacking, paying 300% in cash for something already paid for is NOT going to help. Attacking China and we all have faults, their system and choice of goverment did as best one might expect being rational in sharing the new bug .... WHO releases show that and the timeline.

 

What we did and other nations did and cope is sadly displayed, with living horror in one case. Social norms of kissing on the cheek and CV19, early cases via large populations can even under normal rates see 1 person at them infecting 3 every 5 days ... in 50 days that's 59,000 infections.

 

We love om a word where science is denied. In fact if it doesn't suit us, attacked. CV19 really does have no political party and really cares not at all about BS.

 

It lives happily inside us at 37C and lives well at much greater temps. So expecting it to go away or be defeated is an absurdity. Shut up peasants BACK to work for $10 an hour !!

 

I am happy not to live in such a place. Of course most will deny till their face turns blue and not about to waste time of effort with them. Canada right next door to the USA, first infection 4 days after USA acted quite differently and society and tax much like our own. If one multiplies their population by say 10 you have the USA. USA magically claimed it knew, actions speak far louder as do now even crries to get back to work peasants.

 

This virus is a game changer globally. We will emerge, low debt to GDP adding 50% MORE will still leave us at HALF m0st nations totals and overall including tax we collect from rich and poor a total with super of around 38% tax. NZ our bestie similar .... EU nations same but mush higher Debt levels. They however took the effort to REDUCE post GFC, face ugly choices as did we, higher contributions for many latter retirement age and slashing payouts on some pensions.'

 

Eu same thing and our budget was to balance this year ... EU has been doing so for 8 years.. USA well ... a 5% Deficit 10 years post GFC ? and tax not slightly rising but tax cuts that went 92% to the top 10%.

 

Golly gee ,,,, they like all others .. will take a hit. Will the peasants go back to work ? Will the world endure a nation likely to be 30 trillion in debt over a much lower GDP size than now so likely 160% Debt to GDP and a mere 12% likely being collected in tax ?

 

Who will nations lend to ? An EU one average at 135% debt to GDP and 40% tax .... or one with $160- and $12 income but wanting to spend $20-

 

Trump and he is no different than Obama and Bush or Clinton just wall street investment bank types of a different color. They DEMAND you lend to them

 

I am sure the French region hardest hit will forget 20 million masks taken from the Tarmac as will Germany and Canada .... having expected supplies ... stopped.

 

In the GFc 3 banks came clean and declared they were in effect broke .... late 2007. Same assets identical bonds on every banks books and ... as such if one was marking them to market and the the rest ... were also broke. Market reported 5% plus GDP growth that week ... really ? Market did fall ... 15% only to recover as all is well was trumpeted to 3% off all time highs. On and on and ON it went. The problem was in plain sight at the start. Amusing to get a billion into AMBC the bond insurer when it had 10 billion in losses it had already ... it got an AAA rating just like Australia which had NO federal debt not a cent and AMBAC was broke 9 months latter.

 

Expect the same, in fact, WORSE. China relations were poor with USA and so too every other nation either bullied or stolen from by USA sponsored tax theft. Australia did better than most and got about 20% of the tax Google took via 472 million settlement. The USA tax cuts halving USA tax paid is the sole reason why USA stock rose above all others. NO other reason ... or other than state protected tax theft that saw USA threaten 100% tax on French wines if they god forbid got Google or Facebook to pay tax.

 

Oh the world is changing and post CV19 ... all with HIGHER debt to GDP over a decade as in the past by prudent management it will be reduced. NO longer will the gloves be feather filled when discussing state sponsored and protected global tax theft. France will, nor will Germany ... tolerate it. Being polite and tolerating USA laughing at the Trumpist who really is not different from Obama who also was just a Treasury controlled by Goldman Sachs, so too Clinton Bush and on and on.

 

I have disgust and extreme regret for the common USA people and what their leaders and imbecile has done to them. Sadly with not much functioning free media and basically FOx news on every channel, even glancing at an adjoining country Canada and their CV19 results will not enter their minds.

 

Market for now, USA will deny ... dispute and well ... I am sure funding another 25% of the GDP via a slush fund to support non global tax payers will go down like Dick Smith float in future years.

 

Governments and good ones, and nations have billionaires and rich. Some inherit and some make it by brilliance. What defines and differentiates EU and UK and NZ and virtually all others is that they get taxed at a HIGHER rate and not a lower one. Not to penalize brilliance or punishment ... they pay their fair share. Some of our own billionaires I like, some I despise as the self serving people they are. BUT ... they PAY tax contribute to society and NOT play god and spend $876 million USD with a sole goal and thats to STOP tax to the rich. Bloomberg didn't even get a Tshirt for that.

 

Things, often take generations or events to change.

We have one that, well ... is unique and relationships globally already frayed are now I suspect shredded. No amount of apology will change recent events and even more racist comments via chief troll.

 

I cry for the lack of any comprehension or caring whilst denying CV19, doing NOT a thing, 2,000 tests and Canada compared did 100 times that adjusted ... its too late ... TOO LATE ... to advert.

Now its a victory if 100,000 die ? I like and respect and love Yanks, most with about 5,000 on the nose and likely more, a tiny fraction now rule.

 

Other nations, the NEEDS of the many outweigh the needs or need of the one or few.

 

We are, in not in denial, its often when inside an abusive relationship the awful becomes normal. Its like a dream, did someone just assassinate a leader flying to another nation ? Or did a nation politely ask and other with a spy plane over its soil, rather than shooting it down, to leave ? Did the worlds richest man never pay a dividend, never pay tax anywhere ?

 

Times they are a changing. Of course, resistance as the Borg say, is FUTILE. of course with every billion they possess they will sadly in the case of the USA expect and demand the rest of the world fund their debt, not ask even for pennies form their profits overseas and BOW ... and then fund their slush fund to bail out tax criminals.

 

Its going to be FUN to watch. TAKE THE PAIN NOW ... early and well ... a vaccine is not possible inside 12 months. As such, the impacts I gave are an AT best, and an at best impact in the stock market is not anywhere near current levels.

 

I note now the USA oil industry is to be bailed out via Tariffs and all oil at $60- a barrel because USA break even is that. Wonder who will bear the brunt and who will bear the benifits ? We and EU and most others already have petrol with massive inbuilt tariffs and stuff. Then again we have a functioning healthcare system ... we have decent roads, good education and good support if you get sick via income or loose your job.

 

GET BACK TO WORK .... NOW ... PEASANT ... I need my burgers .. the virus I defeated it at 15 cases and the rest is fake news.

 

See Donald when he announced 100,000 deaths likely, he spent 15 minutes talking about his ratings.

What a caring fellow he is. Amusing 7 minutes about how we love his wife Mealaiananan .. whoops Ivanka. Oh boy ... they started with a C grade movie guy Regan and now a game show host and slum lord running the effort Ivankas pretend Husband JJJJAaaarod,

 

NOW .... clean my boots ... BOY !! and that racists term is for anyone non Trump like of any background race and creed even white dumb folks called Kiwi's whoops ,,, Ozzies ...

 

Find a rock and HIDE in a financial sense. What is left standing in 12 months will not resemble o matter the governments efforts what is standing today. As yet to be reflected in stocks let alone eventual mayhem from overseas and peasants refusing to serve Trump his burger and his tantrum.

 

Upside ? well we just had the dead cat bounce !!

 

My worst case, outlook is NOW my best case result 14 days latter. Of course we are miles away from a best case low and worst case ... is well .... I dont want to think that far ahead.

 

Doomsday preppers seem sane right now so ... well if that's true even for an instant, golly !!

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Yep ...

 

Science verses stupidity

 

Human lives verses economic cost ....

 

When both are to be ignored and Massa dictates back to work and I have a cure ... WORK ... and gives you a vaccine that is a placebo or ends up with all males having their parts drop off in 18 months,

 

I know we are safe

 

MAGA

 

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Trump has a cure ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMkyDS5ULts...ex=13&t=11s

 

Since his main support base is types like this ... I kid you not.

 

Meanwhile ... USA set to report more infections per million and deaths adjusted for population and since some states only shut down and SOME still not fully, but 4th April ... and he wants to go back to work 1st May with 5 times 0ur infection rate ?

 

Watch the preacher again and again.

 

 

ITs sad ... and scary.CV19 any vaccine is not getting closer but further away.

Any other thing to diminish it, or protect against it will take longer.

Whilst Australia and NZ have a chance to stomp the hell out of it .... USA ... golly ...

 

Leader of the World and Canada will have 20% the infections and death rate adjusted for population and getting 3 times the overseas visitors speaks volumes.

I sadly dont expect anything to change. Not Universal healthcare and certainly not political followings. Having lived in the USA for a very long time and with many USA friends, the delusional, condescending nature of USA exceptionalism and utter belief they are the best in every way is impossible even to use critical thought to examine facts or science.

USA market I note has rallied. Of course GFC it took 16 months for the bailout ... this one 16 days and then oversight when Trump signed it went out the window 16 hours latter.

Thats 454 billion USD leveraged to 10 times for big business. So 4.54 trillion. Who funds that .... because EU and China will and are not amused ... remains to be seen.

Meanwhile peasants promised $1,200 in a one off payment ... expect it at best 2 months from NOW .... some likely 4months. One of the many departments Trump has slashed funding to is the Labor Dept and then IRS their tax office.

I again stress, nothing will change. NOT a thing and Trump fans eat his drivel up like dog poop. Others, well .... any leadership in times of crisis seems good. Even instructions like the mad pastor to drink the poison cool aide and you will merely go to sleep followed blindly.

I have little idea of where the ball ends. CV19 distancing here for 18 months. Radical changes to business and employment will occur. Some professions and things like airlines and casino's and Hotels and Motels are in long term deep freeze.

USA had a massive rally the other day as Bernie Sanders dropped out. Any even remote chance of universal low cost healthcare went out the window. Most health companies and insurers gained a whopping 8-10% and of course any chance the right in the USA got taxed also gone.

USA health insurers already proposing increases of 30-40% next year in premiums. Of course, not ever reflected in CPI. Nothing like ghouls at work.

We followed this rally, despite, well Banks being told not to pay dividends ... not ordered and then the old ratings agencies downgrading them. One day selloff and then rally back to square one ? OH really ?

An at best, is spending habits are changed for a very long time. YEARS and despite governments best efforts business models OUT the window. Hotel rates and occupancy, forget it .... virus lives happily for 3 days ... restaurant ... even open can now hold 30% ? Is rent 30% labor 30% .... debt 30% ...

YIkes ..

the other shoe will drop here.

USA with 84% of shares owned by the top 10% and 93% by the top 20% .... what the peasants which includes all the middle class are well .... disposable.

American Airlines got 18 billion in relief via tax cuts and rules .... declared in 2017 it would never loose money again .... did stock buybacks for 17 billion and ... well its ... front of the line for 20 billion bailout again.

Pain and economic pain for most nations will be spread and owners and shareholders will cop some of it. Not for the USA .... no no no ... we are the leaders of the world and Emperor Trump defeated the virus at 15 cases.

Today 500,000 reported and well likely 60,000 dead first wave .... so many are dyeing in their own home that in NY instead of 20 a day its 200 a day. NOt tested for CV19 .... because they are likely poor. How many the extra 180 a day are CV19 .... even 100 a day ... well bugger me.

I note, they are making mass graves on Islands in the middle of the river and stacked 3 high 2 wide, over 50 meters .... that's 600 at a time and I counted more than one site and mass grave.

Sadness ... and the delusions of Trump have no bounds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It is surreal watching the pandemic curve unfold

From what I've read three waves are normal

Relax then next wave relax next wave and so on until it vanishes

We can't keep locked down for too long

When new cases are in a falling trend parts of the economy should open up

 

How will the govt reverse the stimulus measures

When some one is given money they will not want to give it up, they will want more

How will it all be funded when other countries doing same thing

COVID Bonds?

Can Australia afford to keep paying for the stalled economy

I doubt that govt can hold up the east coast real estate market

Though it has been suggested that real estate will be the new gold(by RE investor of course)

 

As interest on cash investment account is almost zero

 

Are we heading for hyper inflation fuelled by the printing presses

 

I agree with you that stock market is in dead cat bounce

We have had first big down leg followed by bounce then to come - drop then bounce then second big leg down followed by same sequence

And hopefully consolidation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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We are in uncharted waters, and nobody really knows what the outcome will be.

I have seen just about every outcome possible put forward (including a complete takeover of the world by (-----) fill in the blanks.

Someone will fluke the outcome, and parrott on with the smug "I told you so" smirk.

Just like those parasites at Get Up bragging that the only reason the govt brought out its stimulus package is because they have been pushing for it all along.

The only thing you can really do is to spread your risk.

Bit of gold, a few stocks, some realestate, a bit of cash, some govt bonds, maybe a firearm or two.

Not all of them will prosper, and some will be downright bad, but we really don't know which.

I bam now pretty much back to where I was at the start of year, minus some cash i have dished outbto my kids who are out of work.

I am keeping cash in case I have to bail them out of house loans.

Whatever happens, people still need a roof over their heads.

There will be inequality in winners and losers. Unfortunately many of the losers will be in the so called gif economy.

Very few of the losers will people in government employ.

Not many of those will even have their pay cut, much less lose their jobs.

As more and more people become dependent on the government, elections will be won and lost on who looks after those government dependants the most.

For those who have never read Ayn Rands Atlas Shrugged, now might be good time to pick up a copy and have good read,.

Mick

 

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There will be inequality in winners and losers.
- the sheer randomness (on the most part) is a feature. Sliding doors stuff.

- Travel last year and have a great time; go this year, get stuck and, in all likelihood, be out of pocket, or sick, or worse

- Do a degree, get a job and you may still have it; do another degree and work in a cafe for cash, and it's tough.

 

The sheer speed of the virus impact meant it may have been almost impossible to change tack (buying a house, changing work, etc) but I haven't much sympathy for people who travelled after 9 March, or stayed OS and are now stuck.

 

The only thing you can really do is to spread your risk.
too true. And manage your risk. Eggs and baskets. Again, the SMSF with only 2 assets, both properties, both now untenanted. Really!!

 

If mark-to-market is too uncomfortable, then only look once a month.

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Sad.

 

How did America get into this predicament?

 

A choice between a "delusional" President and a demented candidate.

 

I must be delusional myself, but I can't see any decent outcome for America but to stick with Trump.

Biden would be an absolute disaster. A monkey with a ouija board would be a better president than Biden.

 

Not a student of American politics, but surely somewhere there must be a politician on either side of the fence who has some brains and vision.

 

 

 

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