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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?


kahuna1

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He posts elsewhere. Six weeks ago:

kahuna1 said: ââ€Â Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¹Ã…“

Ahhh... Y2K ? Or Bird flu ? Or is it terrorists ?

 

Fear fear and more fear.

 

Relevance of this flu ? Or likely ? NOT much.

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From memory K1 cant receive IMs, as for where he also posts takes me back to the informative Mistagear vs K1 battle. Again from memory it started on the other site and K moved it here where he had more support. I liked them both but mista asked readers to do their own search on it. I did and in my opinion he had the high ground but not the verbosity. I have a record of it somewhere.

Aussie stock forums is what you are looking for.

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

Markets should PAUSE and shut down.

 

Howdy,

 

Having been around for a while, and a fossil in many ways, over the past 37 years involved in markets and most currencies, bonds, equities and commodities at various times, not much is new.

 

Famous last words. Often things I know are worthless or worth 1% of the heights they reach is not uncommon. Conversely, in times of panic and this time terror, the opposite occurs. People, seeing 50% of value lost illogically panic and sell. Other times when its a worthless asset the stop loss is the correct action to preserve capital.

 

 

Right now, either society ends, markets and economies crumble or they DO NOT.

 

The Billy Joel song, as a former head of trading for one of the worlds largest banks âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“I go to Extremesâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ springs to mind at times like this. The words, âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“so high and so low, with no in betweenâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ is so true of most activities on markets today where idiot savant trading dominates.

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity.âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢ Edgar Allan Poe

 

 

The CASE and precedent for hitting the pause button on all trading and equity markets is CLEAR.

 

 

ALL TRADING OF EQUITES AND DERIVATIVES, Futures. options and others in G20 Markets needs to cease totally prior to Sydney opening and USA market futures opening Monday Morning.

 

An opinion, but actually a no brainier. As one of few with 35 plus years experience still active in most markets from currencies to bonds and equities to commodities, to see for instance a 10% range in 8 hours on an equity Index USA trading representing 20 trillion or so, is and at best alarming.

 

Markets have stopped and all trading in Equities, derivatives and futures, options paused post 9/11 . It did so to stop irrational fear. IT also paused for some time after the Bombing of Pearl Harbour late 1941.

 

 

This time. It should not even BE a question.

 

USA sadly dropped the ball declaring the virus defeated at 15 cases. Denied it would hit them due to USA being, well, better or the best in the world is delusional in the extreme.

 

 

USA did NOT test in any significant numbers even till early March 2020. CDCC reported a mere 8,000 samples or less, and each sample being 2-3 per person its likely a mere 2,000 actual people were tested up till 10 days ago.

 

To ramp up to say EU test levels, takes time. CDC produces daily totals and these show snails pace verses what to reach say the 10,000 a day a nation less than 10% the size USA is appears where they are NOW.

 

Cases have risen, and PANIC âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ is not even close to what is about to occur.

 

USA as I type is 19,700 cases for 329 million people. Its testing at about 10% the level it needs to for it to identify those infected and isolate them.

 

USA equity futures open at 9 am Monday morning if allowed. They have limits at 5% where trading pauses in overnight trading, then at 13% and then at 20% where all trading for a day ceases.

 

It is sadly and without much doubt, that the reported cases in the USA rise dramatically even by Monday morning and it opens LIMIT down 5%, when trading resumes at 9.30 am NY time or about then it opens LOCKED limit down 13% and when it resumes after a pause, likely it sadly hits 20% down and all trading ceases. NO actual trades will occur in reality. It will go locked limit âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦

 

Would it not be prudent to HIT pause âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. over illogical, if not idiotic fear ? Prior to this occurring and if allowed, its possible to do the same thing the next day.

 

 

Essentially end of everything. Possibly forever for some companies in the panic. They literally cease to exist as idiotic conditions exist.

 

Irrational fear, in fact, hysteria that has replaced denial is virtually guaranteed. Its actually not unexpected. It seems they are in threat, their very lives according to the doomsday preppers society.

 

There is HOPE âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦

 

 

This FEAR, is NOT logical. Whilst understandable as a threat to your life, all be it minor if precautions are taken, THIS WILL PASS.

 

 

Comparing it to Spanish flu where even oxygen in hospital was not available nor ventilators is, well âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ absurd. Penicillin not invented or in use for 25 years to stave off infections âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦.

 

Whilst if NOT stopped spreading, CV19, the virus can be if allowed and not controlled, deadly. We KNOW what to DO.

 

 

PAUSE âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ deep breath.

 

This is one Tracker âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. Johns Hopkins âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops...423467b48e9ecf6

 

And this another,

 

 

https://ncov2019.live/

 

 

Now after a lot of deep breathing, lets have a look.

 

 

China âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. 80,000 cases âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ sadly 3,200 deaths and still some serious cases, 75,000 out of 80,000 cases, CURED or sadly they passed away.

 

Virtually NO new cases for a nation of 1.3 billion people.

 

 

This will of course matter bugger all for the MAYHEM about to hit. USA and its leadership, which has 33% with pathetic health-cover or NONE will be the focus of the next weeks. USA USA USA âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦

 

So whilst it took TIME for China to attack the virus, massive testing and isolation/ social distancing WORKS.

 

Again likely forgotten in the next 2-3 weeks as the financial markets implode as the USA, as it always does, believes its the centre of the Universe.

 

Lets go to Hong Kong, hit by SARs MERs Avian Flu and Swine Flue issues in the past, with 7 million plus and in close proximity to China, its had a mere 256 cases identified.

 

 

Are you getting any sanity back into your perspective ?

 

 

DOES âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ now alerted to the threat, social distancing WORK ?

 

Of course.

 

Talk of all activity ceasing forever ? A common topic of the media. Did it happen in post 2003 Sars era ? Or other pandemics ? OF course not stupid.

 

It will NOT stop what will be likely an implosion IF ALLOWED âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ markets to open Monday.

 

 

USA will and is likely to go troppo.

 

Its sad numbers, eventually assured with extreme respect and regret to rise and rise till testing reaches around 10 times the current levels at say 100,000 plus tests a day.

 

Time and time again, idiotic if NOT absurd in the extreme on one side of ignoring a virus replaced with, which is normal doomsday preppers and idiots who have predicted the end of the world time and time again. The weird fascination I have for those shows and low tolerance for their reasoning is now replaced by, a real life event, that, well, if you DONT social distance or ignore a bloody virus that spreads, STUPID people prevail.

 

Deep breath. If someone comes inside your NOW personal space of 1.5 metres, for NOW, they are to be sprayed with bleach in the face to stop them.

 

 

All this aside, the absurdity of what is about to occur and USA is going to go from a slight unease and in some cases terror to total mayhem in the coming week. All of it based, upon little logic.

 

If sadly the USA hits 100,000 cases identified its a tragedy, much like Italy which is 25% the population and has hit 47,000 cases. Of course one can only wish it was not so and express our deepest sympathies for those lost and well wishes and prayers for those still fighting it.

 

 

We, as a species, as opposed to looking with some cynicism via USA media and cable news as the Chinese built hospitals and enforce quarantine and massive testing, many nations, ones already well versed in previous virus events did much the same.

 

Singapore revealed how far it could track visitors and citizens and anyone, anywhere, via CCTV and mobile signal was identified, read the riot act quarantined and locked away in threat of massive fines and jail and they had, 385 cases despite being a travel hub with about of 5 million locals. I wish, USA had similar outcomes and being 60 times the size, the 20,000 mark will be passed and exceeded in hours.

 

IT WORKS âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. Social distancing.

 

All forgotten.

 

 

MARKETS must close and SHOULD not open Monday.

 

Predicting LOGIC âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ I suspect NO trading actually occurs in USA markets EVEN if they remain OPEN âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. it locks LIMIT down at 5% âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. Trading stops âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ no trades actually occur âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ between zero and down 5% âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ trading resumes and it LOCKS limit 13% .. DOWN âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ no trading occurs between 5% down and 13% down and reopens after a pause and likely 30,000 USA CV19 cases identified and all sanity and logic left in dust after some, with margin, loose everything and any exit NEEDED âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. so the 20% limit down âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ cascaded into with NO real trading or exit seen. Repeat the next day âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦.

 

 

I will go beyond this. Stupidity and non factual events or actions have one thing that cures them. TIME or Scientific evidence and logic.

 

 

Obviously in panic, we ignore âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ the latter.

 

 

CURES, Vaccines and ANTI Viral Agents.

 

A cure, or treatments, some seem to work and some do not.

 

Why say Italy has been hit so hard, until scientific data and peer reviewed factual numbers are presented, speculation is the only observation. Sadly, kissing on the cheek on greeting and leaving of friends, not a good outcome and possibly why the initial viral load seems so high along with the spread.

 

Vaccines are great.

 

Right now, we NEVER have cured any virus or EVER produced a vaccine.

 

No Smallpox âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. was never defeated.

 

Polio

 

Hepatitis C

 

Chicken pox

 

the list goes ON and on.

 

Nope we are never ever going to create a vaccine or so it seems.

 

How astoundingly stupid and absurd.

 

A vaccine works one hopes protects at close to 100% of the time and sometimes lower, but it stops the spread and human to human transmission. It also lowers the severity of the the thing in the case of the Flu if you get a different strain you will likely get it less severe.

 

 

Suggesting even with a straight face that a vaccine will not be developed is absurd. INSANE and in the Swine flu version it took some time to identify and map the thing, 10 times as long as it did in 2020, and when deployed it took a mere 4 months with technology to test and wheel out a vaccine. That was 2009. Not with double if not triple the technology and this time being conservative 10 times as many resources thrown at the task.

 

 

Do you really think, whilst CV19 related to MERS and SARS not swine flu, that it will take some time beyond 12 months ? It feels that way listening to some idiots they wheel out.

 

 

TIME will not be kind to these types.

 

Social distancing and isolation WORKS all by itself. Let alone a vaccine with 95-99.99% effectiveness and the Chinese with no reason to lie, and every reason NOT to, say they have one almost ready, limited testing and they have 9 at least they have been testing, ready if needed April.

 

Add to this 3 if not 5 others in very early stages testing a vaccine, IF NEEDED âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ which with my new personal space and not kissing random girls who beg me walking down the street, I have to say no for now !!

 

Whilst a lot of rubbish has prevailed via various media outlets. It is 2020.

 

NOT 1920.

 

That's a vaccine.

 

 

ANTI VIRAL

 

An Anti Viral is something given to lessen the severity of say Flu such as Tami Flu and its very big brother one gets in hospital which dumb it down in most cases.

 

NEW Flu and CV19 âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ we had and have no natural immunity unless your one of the very few who got SARs or MERS and MAY have some limited immunity one might expect to CV19 which is 85% of the same type of thing.

 

 

Well âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. we humans, in 2020, have actually a long list of things for other viral infections. Anti viral agents, if they get out of hand. Some for bloody infections that actually are also very good at limiting and in some cases totally eradicating a virus if not putting it into suspended animation.

 

Cervical cancer, eventually, a virus hopefully will be a thing of the past. But a thing like Hepatitis C, HCV is a virus which can be eradicated in 2020. HIV a death sentence in 2020, well, suspended animation and the PREP that limits spread WORKS.

 

One and on one could go.

 

I noted, Japanese trug with some testing in China seems to work with CV19. So too a malaria drug in combination with a common penicillin works even better.

 

Astounding and encouraging.

 

 

Extremely. In the meantime, USA and doom and gloom types will prevail.

 

Here is a decent U tube

 

 

 

 

It missed many of the things that appear to hold promise and astoundingly quickly. I personally was not expecting any Anti Viral till after a vaccine which given the scope, and 20 massive drug makers in the vaccine side and some with multiple teams for the bigger ones working on a vaccine, its more than 30 working that side and if anything, 100 or more working on existing anti viral agents or new ones to slow the severity down.

 

 

Just a few links

 

Decent up to date as of now

 

https://www.drugs.com/condition/covid-19.html

 

 

Possible âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ but early stages âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦

 

 

 

https://observer.com/2020/02/coronavirus-co...s-drug-testing/

 

A few more with promise

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/...ronavirus-67052

 

 

All this âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦

 

sadly likely forgotten in the mayhem if MONDAY trading resumes.

 

Myopic self interested focus on USA totals infected and a real fear, for ones well being and this has crossed and will cross into hysteria.

 

Australia, CAN and should act alone as should EU markets should USA not.

 

 

If you have read this far, and I am sure some will disagree, some with vigour.

 

I am merely a person who has faced this type of event, all be it not the same, but not unlike where fear and logic needs time to take hold.

 

 

Interviewing a cafe owner who YES needs help as others hit initially, and government SHOULD act and not be stingy with 5% of GDP directly focused not a mere 1% Australia has seen.

 

 

Most say Cafe's have seasonal periods and if 3 weeks of 10% customers, in and when we have it contained, well identified, and virtually no new cases LIKE Hong Kong, trade will resume, not at 100% but 50% in a few weeks, then at 75% in 8 weeks. Some things, like airlines, and confidence have taken a hit, but if your suggesting the end of the world, again, we may change, learn a lesson and do things like being more prepared and social norms more careful, life WILL go on. Or for doomsday preppers gulping their cordial down now âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ it ends.

 

 

We are an island and most nations the same. Whilst tourism takes a hit, and reality and short term say 3 month impact occur, we have 10 million plus travelling overseas a year and a mere 8.5 million visitors. Things will return to some normality with I suspect more domestic tourism and less visitors when our borders open again.

 

Obviously, I have NO idea how this unfolds. I do hold hope and the fact that governments NEED to step in and fill the gaps for a while is astounding our Banks basically gave up 25% likely of their profits âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. PRIOR to our bloody government acting is a disgrace. We have been running one of the tightest fiscal policies globally of any nation. NOT just balancing a budget but a surplus was to occur 2020. Obviously not now. Our debt to GDP ratio and NET debt to GDP ratio is astoundingly low lowest in G20 or close to it ?

 

 

WAKE UP you DRONGOS in charge. If your wrong and go to 5% of GDP stimulus pre Monday and even 10% supporting retailers and small business, casual workers, HUMANS âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ that's WHY âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ you saved. That virtually NO payments have eventuated to business from Bushfire support to date, given nearly 3 months have passed is pathetic.

 

If global markets DO NOT CLOSE âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. and the USA do not see need, it will cause NO HARM âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦ it will likely reduce it. I have no vested interest other than being long equities, and if the ones I own. Top20 ones, fall, so to will our nation and species.

 

 

 

 

CLOSE the BLOODY EXCHANGES please for 7 days or 14 days. Get your finger out DRONGO and announce something. ANYTHING âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. NOW âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦.

 

 

 

 

Kind regards and apologies, a prayers and for those impacted and sick. I hope they find some magic combination that works immediately.

 

 

 

Of course, likely âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚¦. totally wrong, its a bad dream.

 

 

take care

 

 

Mark Kahuna.

 

P.S maybe I rush out and buy mince, forgetting Australia exports 4 times as much as it consumes and we are all becoming cave people ?

Markets_MUST_PAUSE.pdf

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