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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?


kahuna1

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Nice Mr Gear,

 

You reply to my posts with more of the same, when a simple private or public apology would have meant something, for the money your picks and methods cost my family, and then left the position as financial advisor.

I was left to deal with the mess you left behind. Thankfully I resisted taking some of the stocks you picked at the time otherwise the losses could have been even greater.

Am sure the eloquence of your penmanship will maintain your good image on this forum, despite me questioning the substance of your words. Am sure I'm the only one who cares and has a conscience

 

I am sorry if it has cost you some money.

 

 

Since I have not spoken to you for over a year ... and the index was 4,800 ish then vs 4,250 obviously its down 11% ish . Pretty hard to make money in this environment without radical action. You were left with highly experienced and competant advisors.

 

 

Sorry.

 

Since I actully own virtually every single stock on the ASX 200 and the core stocks of the portfolio being TLS APA NAB ANZ TAH and a few others thrown in DUE CIF SKI some have been a dissapointing others not so. Mainly they were skewed towards higher paying investments and having got for example 5 dividends off TLS when we started adding at $3.30 and increasing at $3- and then $2.70 so an average of $3- its one of the better performers. Others certainly have not done so well. The core of the suggested portfolio was always defensive and high dividend paying vs the overall index.

 

The my core portfolio suggested was and still is returning 5.6% per annum income. With franking credits 7.4%.

 

The index is down 11% since Jan 2010 vs the overall core portfolio if nothing had been done of 7.4% down so its outperformed the overall index by 3.6% if you did zero. But yep a loss !!!

 

In the meantime it should have paid with franking credits 7.4% each year. Not a great return over a 2 year period ... but the index is down not up. This is if nothing was done. NOTHING.

 

As you know at extremes I suggest lightening and at other extremes adding to the portfolio.

 

On one hand if we looked at the stocks in isolation and alone some have done very poorly and others not too badly as one would expect. Trying to make money on a falling stock market is virtually impossible.

 

For this I am sorry.

 

Of the core stocks ANZ NAB TAH TLS ... its been a wild ride for most of them. Even I am throwing my hands up and giving up on the banks as the actual paper profits and losses change in such a radical way from week to week. When your holding 30% between these sorts of financial and one week ANZ is $19- and the next nearly $21- its hard to hold in this environemnt. With ANZ always I was thinking when it had a $20- in front of it and below it was a buy vs a sell higher up. Still despite the market being caned its still virtually in this range. My pet NAB of the banks same sort of stuff and was amazed that day it actually went below $20- only to trade 30% higher two months latter despite a still sick overall market.

 

Of course its nice to speak about ones which have been doing ok ... others such as QBE or PPT which I wished I sold everything when it had the takeover and went to $38 vs where it is now. Could have would have should have.

 

Again I am sorry, Sadly I cannot control the overall market but the suggestions were overall totally conservative in nature ... on the main higher income paying and if taken in totality. I believe they still stand up and reason for that ... I still own virtually every single one of them.

 

Just looked ... ASX 200 was 4,900 Jan 2010 vs 4,288 as of close Friday so its down 12.48% ... an aside. Since last time I spoke to you over 12 months ago its gone from 4,800 to 4,288 or down 10.66% .

 

 

Your post troubled me greatly and I am sorry ... I wish it wasn't so. As I have not spoken to you for over 12 months I am a bit perplexed at the venom of your attack. Otherwise I do understand it and resoning behind it. Sorry for your loss.

 

I have no problem with the core portfolio overall despite some winners and some loosers. Nor with actually exiting and lightening up at top extremes and doing the converse at the bottom. Even trading 20% of the portfolio in and out would have added 3% each and every time you applied this logic. There have been 7 different tops and bottoms the last two years.

 

I will just shut up. Give up .... even a decent well structured porfolio that if you did nothing for two years overall would have left you ahead vs 12% loss in the index doesn't work. Sure thats counting the income produced !! And in harry hindsight having 100% invested in 6% bank bills would have been better.

 

Again ... sorry ... but 12 months of silence .. and then that ?

 

I retire and will tend to my own affairs from now on.

 

Many thanks

 

 

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I retire and will tend to my own affairs from now on.

 

K1--I sincerely hope that your statement does not mean that you are leaving ShareScene.

 

Just an overall point about advisers. The laws governing advisers has tightened dramatically over the last few years, and how any portfolio is set up very much depends on either the firm instructions of an outside body administering a deceased estate for example, or the requirements/intentions of the person appointing an advisor, mind you it is many years since I have had first hand experience if appointing a new advisor.

 

It therefore seems quite unfair to publicly comment on portfolio outcomes without clearly stating the original instructions/intentions/aims of the appointee.

 

Again K1, I think on behalf of many SSers--I hope you stay with us.

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K 1 has selflessly given his knowledge over the years. He says it like he sees it logically with facts and figures to back it up.

With the volatility in the markets, mostly news driven not logic. We need all the help we can get

Having spoken to an insider 98% of punters lose money on CFD's. This unfortunately makes one a better trader over time as you learn many strategies. Having followed endless commentators,it would be a great loss if K1 didn't share his insights and expertise. Mista Gear,sorry to hear about your families losses. Nobody gets it right all the time especially in these uncertain times.

Personally I would really miss K 1's posts.

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Poor investors/traders always like to point the finger at others for their stuff ups. Its every man for himself out there. It is war on the markets every day. CFD's are a mug's game, full stop. If you can not afford to buy the stock and own it outright, then you probably shouldn't be trading "trying to get rich quick". Getting rich off the market takes decades of hard work slogging it out. Start small with zero leverage, do your homework and over the years it will drow substantially.

 

As much as I have disagreed with K1 over the years and butted heads with him, at least he is prepared to stick his neck out and make a call. Right or wrong it takes a bigger man to do this then simply point the finger after having taken a loss. Being wrong sometimes is all part of being a successful trader/investor. It comes with the territory. With zero leverage, being wrong hurts much much much less....

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I'd be surprised if K1 is not one of the better Financial Advisors out there.However,the whole 'advisory' industry is a dogs dinner and best avoided if possible. A few pet peeves.

 

1.The extensive and opaque commissions.EG. You give your advisor funds to invest on your behalf. He/she gives those funds to Investment Managers and receives a commission.The Investment manager also charges you a %age fee.What did the 'Advisor actually do?

 

2.Benchmarks are just a con imo.Almost all fund managers are essentially Index followers.If the Market goes down it is not their fault however if it goes up what clever fellows they are! If one must use an 'Advisor' make sure they put the cash with an Absolute return Fund,or better still do this yourself: why provide an Investment Advisor with an enviable lifestyle with no risk to himself?

 

One could go on and on and................

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Having followed endless commentators,it would be a great loss if K1 didn't share his insights and expertise

It's just this point that is critical in the overall context of the thread--many posters may have agendas, ie be slanted towards one market methodology as against another methodology, be slanted towards one sector (personally guilty), but there appears nobody other than K1 who has BROAD coal face adviser experience of the market as an entirety obviously over many years, advisers seem to be a much maligned species, probably by those who may have never actually used an adviser but hear bad stories about such advisers in online chat rooms.

 

The reality is that knowing the species very well, the old hands currently ring their hands as to how they advise clients in todays unheard of market conditions, by that I mean how many times have those old hands, and even some older SSers seen the prospect of a global meltdown of a major international currency, the EURO, and its horrendous international banking consequences--ie: Bearing in mind all the ASIC etc requirements of an adviser today how in all conscience can they advise anybody, let alone retirees and newbies in todays unheard of conditions and sleep easy at night.

 

So, again I say we want somebody like K1 who has such experience to carry on commentating in his inimitable way and above all willing to go public, so--Let's support him and encourage him to stay.

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Financial Advisors

Do you mean the average adviser working for a local accountant based advisory outfit--or a qualified stockbroker?

 

2 different animals since the "local" man cannot by law advise you about direct share ownership, or any other of the myriad functions of today's stockmarket, and its the ownership of mother stock that create the benefits, certainly not index hugging by the local commission taker---main trouble today that to be taken on by any good broker you need to show liquid assets of $A.5m due to the high back room running/compliance costs which the local adviser has no exposure to.

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Flower,

Any fool can become a 'qualified stockbroker'.Stockbroking firms around Australia are full of ex sporting 'heroes' and the sons of well connected wealthy folk.Public school types who couldn't cut it academically are also prominent. (for the record,am Public School myself)

There is abundant evidence that clients--including very wealthy ones--of Brokers do no better than anyone else.A recent study in the UK looked at the results of Fund Managers/Broker Managed Accounts who charged high fees compared to those that charged low fees.There was no difference whatever.All the hype about 'high net worth' individuals doing better because of the special advice they receive is so so much Broker B/S.The amazing thing is that the wealthy are sucked in by the lunches and Gallery tickets etc etc.

Have a look at the weekly interviews with Fund Managers in the Fin. Rev. Many only handle individual clients with $500 k to invest.Their results are always stated and they are almost always Index + or - 5%.

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