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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?


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In reply to: tcisboss on Friday 18/01/08 12:10pm

Have to agree with you on the lunatics coming out of the woodwork with utter rubbish.Could it be the same people who were "blueskying" a few months ago, that there was no way the market could fall? Looking at a lot of the stocks I follow the sell side is looking very thin just now and parcels offered at these low prices are too little to bother picking up.

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In reply to: albion on Friday 18/01/08 12:26pm

Agree Albion a lot I own are being sold down by smaller investors with small amounts on both sides. Never really thought about it but I think theres quite a few on all sites that don't trade but enjoy causing a little bit of mischief by jumping on bandwagons. Also I have noticed there are a lot more posters during school holidays lol.

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In reply to: tcisboss on Friday 18/01/08 01:35pm

Sorry boys, I'm watching hc, which has got to be the public bar of Aussie stock forums, and I can't see the irrational fear and panic that you are detecting.


It is a bit like the saying "buy when there is blood in the streets"? There may be a tad more piss and wind around than normal but no sign of blood yet IMO.


In other words maybe we are not there yet.

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In reply to: tcisboss on Friday 18/01/08 01:10pm

Hahah ..


yep every nutter I am sure is going I told you so .... ect ect ...


Market desperate to buy and some strength off the lows. Technically we tested this minor chart point and have bounced a bit. Not far away from the bottom.


Markets overall have come a very long long way from the tops as you say.


Are we there yet ?



Are we there yet ?


Are we there yet ?


repeat 20 times ....


Well some excellent value here and started but the market ran the other way. In no hurry either way. Sadly feel despite the market almost demanding the US fed lower rates ... its pretty much expected and what does that do ? A rally for 3 days ?


Some more pain out there and with the corporate credit rollovers of funding hitting third gear between now and the end of the month ... as I said i suspect some leveraged deals to run into trouble in coming weeks . Nothing to do with the housing side ... more to do with the leveraged buyouts that went on in 2006-7 where the price and benefits were worked out on the basis of a low cost of funding and a decent economy whilst they stripped the company bare and switched the assets around. Not being talked about this ... since its 4 times the size of the housing thing ... but the paper currently out there is not trading at all and the actual prices for some of it ... are non existent. Despite Citi and Merrill's taking their medicine still for me this issue looms over the remainder of 2008.


That said ... market just cant help itself and its buying and buying today. Not sure some of the stronger stocks out in La La land are the ones I would be buying but heck .... what do I know ?


I liked our banks but gee at 3% off the lows for most its not a case I just have to chase them. Any rally in the past has faltered with more doom an gloom the very next day from the USA.


Maybe this is and was the low. Quite happy to miss it. Without the banks actually being in the black today ... our index would be at its lows. All appears like it did the day we bounced around 6,000 to be very highly structured this buying. Same game just a different level 6% lower than last time. When i see them placing bids in the top 20 stocks till a really big seller appears and then moving to another top 20 stock and doing the same .... it doesn't inspire me.


Not talking doom and gloom here. Agree with most we have fallen a very long way.


Different to many i expect any rally to be .... short-lived and nothing like the 25% the index put on last time. USA and Japan are slowing down along with UK and Europe. Potential for a second wave of things to happen and the Nuclear option to come out and play. Some might think we are here .... and I suppose in some ways we are having shed 1,200 points from the old high. It comes down to the fact I believe there is far more reporting to come and the bad news is just like a death of 1,000 paper-cuts and until the bulk of its out of the way .... no chance to end it. Either way not looking for the index to get back to old highs anytime soon. At best a stall in the 6,200-300 for the ASX 200.


Downside and nuclear option ? Well we are here in some ways but none of the very bad things I thought may happen have happened. Market totally ignored the inflation side numbers and worst PPI since 1981 and worst CPI number over 4.1% since 1990. Bond market continued to rally. US dollar still wobbling but Euro having said its slowing wobbled harder. In the meantime China revalued 2% last month. Not a good thing for inflation and maybe it was just catchup ... but if the official policy is to raise their value 2% a month for a while ... golly. Japan in a real mess ... crucial the currency for them ... its fine for the US to want the dollar lower but I doubt it helps them much either way and if it means they trash the Japanese economy and chances of recovery, the US doesn't care, but a much lower dollar vs the YEN will end in tears.


Enuf ...


Just don't know ... despite seeing the cheap prices still have some serious concerns about the need for a real washout to signal the end.


Given how far we have come this last night is a mere love kiss.


Still feels very wrong ... too structured and without the almighty bang at the end .... and the rally just failed ... at least for now.



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In reply to: triage on Friday 18/01/08 01:49pm

Sometimes it's not prudent to wait for blood on the streets......BHP @ sub $35 for instance...............back it up, I'm in...I suspect Wall Street will tank on the open tonight and finish strongly up...if I'm wrong who cares....BHP and sundry are CHEAP!

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I can probably see this kiss giving me a bad taste afterwards mark lol but just noticed a special

message from ANZ etrade for all customers to closely watch their margin loans, Oouch me thinks friday night take away or out for dinner might be replaced by a sandwhich for a few .

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In reply to: woteva on Friday 18/01/08 02:05pm



Wall St has a long weekend coming up - Martin Luther King Jr Day on next Monday - so that may affect how the traders there want to go into the weekend.


But FWIW I agree with you, there appears to be some very good stocks going very cheaply even now, inc some of the oil and gas stocks.

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Are we there yet ?



Are we there yet ?


Are we there yet ?



3 hours later yes is the answer.


The sheer violence of this afternoons trade was something to behold.


Whilst our index is going to finish in the red ... Japan did a somersault and from 3% down to up 0.5%.


Our market was bedlam this afternoon with programmed buying in every stock which had a pulse. I was skeptical of it at lunch ... cant ignore the fact most of our banks had a 7% range and closed on their highs.


These rebounds in the blink of an eye ... god love them. Was not brave enuf to stand in the tide this morning but did pick up small around the place as the day wore on .... I missed the bottom this time :{


Still the little man is yelling in the back of my mind. Whilst the bulls won ... lots of volume on the way up and still I worry about what is yet to come.


Now tonight .... the best move would be for the US fed to cut rates and the Dow to have an actual up night and a long weekend to think things over in a bullish frame of mind as opposed to the diet of negativity.


Not often does one see such a reversal and violence RIO had a whopping 10% day .... CBA 7% other monsters 6%.


Having missed it and not being too bullish long term will just sit on the bid and hold my breath. Worst outcome tonight is another whipsaw and the Dow ending down. Where that will leave the buyers of today I have no idea.




End of the thread till either we break a new low ... or it continues upwards towards the technical resistance.


This cycle on todays action appears over .... then again have a sneaking suspicion about this rally. Only time will tell. Prefer things to bounce of a major chart point rather than a small one along with a big smash and bounce ... well I suppose we got number two. Just feels like a bit of a repeat of Monday open down 1.5% ... close up.


Secret ingredient needed ... a Dow rally and US fed cutting rates into a market thats going up not down.




All the best.



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In reply to: kahuna1 on Friday 18/01/08 04:27pm

Are we there yet? lol I was asking myself just that today.



It looks like we had some capitulation today. Now we are back at August levels.





Always enjoy your post kahuna1 thanks.

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Yep as I alluded to at lunch time folks.......today was about as close to a bottom as one can get.


The fed is in relaxing mode and that means ONE thing...markets will end higher at the end of 2008 rather than lower!


Step up and BUY your favourite commodity plays!

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