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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?


kahuna1

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In reply to: daggie on Thursday 17/01/08 11:45am

Daggie no matter how good anyone is they can't pick the top or bottom on Wednesday I saw some oppurtunities and took them MQG, ARQ and a couple of others including Aim

at 11.5 what a bargain to buy at some of these levels I am very happy to me, I can hold these and get reasonable CG and a dividend off a few over a long term if I miss the bottom by 1 or 3 % so what l would like to get that close to the top every time. While I admit l will never know as much as someone like Kahuna has forgotten, I still believe one can make good money by having balls even today I was just looking and I could get rid of

some of these at good profit, One can make there own luck or follow like sheep and keep gettting shawn and fleeced by the farmer.

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In reply to: tcisboss on Thursday 17/01/08 12:35pm

Could not agree with you more theres money to be made from these panic sell offs. Do the "Doomers" just sit there with their stories of doom/gloom and wait for their teacup handles to set them in the right direction or just do nothing? Did very well on a quick trade cashed in already for several$K profit. They could be right with their doom, but who cares ?The name of the game is to make money in the meantime. Never mind trying to get "it right" and pick the bottom right across the market. Certain shares maybe be way oversold or bottomed before the market. CVN typical example was way way oversold.

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In reply to: albion on Thursday 17/01/08 12:58pm

Albion that why where in the game to make money its all well and good saying I'm all in cash but that isn't going to put bread on the table and if I can pick and make 5 or ten large in a few trades while others are unsure so be it. Sometimes I think maybe not on SS but others forums have a motive to make investors shaky and benefit financially by making others unsure and sell down. If I get taken down it will be on my making not by others and acting as a herd animal, as I am a firm believer in being master of my own destiny.

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In reply to: dee27 on Wednesday 16/01/08 05:21pm

Hi Dee,

 

 

 

QUOTE
at what level according to your TA would the ASX 200 and All Ords enter into technical Downtrends (ie according to DOW phase theory primary bear markets)

 

This is just my TA interpretation and not inclusive of DOW theory as more is involved than just the chart for DOW theory.

 

Ok I have used a semi log scale chart for a more accurate representation and time frame is weekly.

I have a bit of a thing for using parallel channels

XAO has dropped back to the lower channel trend line of the primary trend so it would be nice to see it hold around this level. Any break of the trend line is break of primary trend, but being realistic the 5490 lows could be challenged/retested and as I see it if a major break of this level then All Ords would be looking very wobbly indeed. With all the doom and gloom about on media etc we may be close to the bottom. That being said as I have mentioned there are many charts in the XJO that have broken major top patterns in recent days, weeks, months or are looking like doing so(or at least breaking down from medium term double top patterns) Yes some would have good FA reasons for topping out, others a warning sign perhaps? We may look back in a few months time at another glitch on the bull run radar.

 

Cheers

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In reply to: dee27 on Wednesday 16/01/08 05:21pm

Following along from previous post and looking at the XJO and again using weekly charts with semi log scale we see a similar picture to XAO(as one would expect)

We have pulled back to the upper channel trend line(XAO lower channel) so again a good place for it to hold, and again being realistic the 5483 lows could be retested and any decisive break would not be welcomed. But I could add that just because an indice breaks its trend line does not mean its all over but could just mean a period of consolidation with attached collywobbles :big grin:

 

Cheers

 

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