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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?


kahuna1

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In reply to: Mookie on Wednesday 23/03/05 12:43pm

Hi Mookie,

 

Longer term still love HDR on several levels.

Just my own personal view of course.

 

P/E once Ching come on line will be very low.

P/E when Tiof comes on will bring it even lower.

 

Confirmation of TIOF at 300 mmboe plus still a positive.

 

Like the prospects of HDR still finding a lot more Mauritianai.

Like blue sky of other property HDR owns.

 

Still bullish long tem on oil price.

 

But I don't own a single HDR share.

Sold into the rally above $2.00 but was sq long before the high average ... not great when it was 2.12 trading ....

 

My view longer term unchanged.

Just being a trader go in and out all the time.

Looking to buy on dips.

Long term view unchanged.

 

Run the risk, especially with shares you love they keep going up.

 

Liked both WPL and CEY. In fact loved WPL, more than HDR, yet sold out too early and had to suffer the rise seen in the last few weeks, Same with CEY.

 

Hoping and awaiting a decent pullback in both to re enter.

Might not get it, thats the risk you run loosing your core position especially with stocks you like.

 

Overall long term view unchanged for HDR.

Fact is as the price goes down they become more and more attractive longer term just because they are cheaper. My own long term valuation assumptions have not changed and the lower any stock falls if say I think it goes to $4- ... the more attractive it becomes.

 

Don't read anything into my selling. Very likely I could be totally wrong and this is a one day correction. The older I get the less I realize I know.

 

This correction I feel even if correct might go on for a little while, but longer term I expect the Energy situation to remain the same and eventually over time we see Oil rise.

Short term, pullback may happen, could go to 64 then 48 then higher or from here at 56 to 48 to 75 .......

 

Trading is my bread and butter so focus is shorter term than say an investors who trades once or twice a year.

 

Longer term I remain the same. But buying HDR at 192 as opposed to 202 means a 5% return to me .... but run the risk of being square when something you expect to happen at some stage happens.

 

Sorry long winded ..... usual for me.

So much cash ... it stops me from being tempted to try and pick the lows for today ....

 

CHeers

 

 

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In reply to: kahuna1 on Wednesday 23/03/05 01:23pm

In recent years there has always been a "drop" around EasterÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ in many ways it can be linked back to the chance of a terrorist event

 

~ 4 day weekend VS 2 day (the longer the time the higher the risk that an "event" will happen on one of these non-trading days (and you'll be caught in the drop)

 

~ Easter, it's a world wide holiday and also a highly christian event (also security levels are lower due to staff on holidays)

 

On a side note, I agree with spot pointÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ if you look long term the current rise isn't too alarming

 

Cheers

Matt

 

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there is this obsession with what the DOW did overnight.

 

for players trying to ride the macro trend in equities, i think they are watching the wrong thing. far more relevent to watch the T-bonds. the reason is because the dominoes fall in a certain order.

 

witness the crash in the T-bonds in early '87 and the crash of the US equities six months later.

witness the massive bear in the T-bonds in 1999 and the US equity market tops in 2000.

witness how the bonds reacted to the latest rate rise - they didn't fall out of bed.

 

there is every evidence that the NASDAQ and SP500 are in secular bear markets.

it is my belief that the DOW is in the same secular bull that started in '82. i think it far more likely that the DOW will take out 11000 than 10200 and then work its way to all new all-time highs. we'll see - all you can do is bet on how you see the future.

 

think 1150-1160 will call the SP500 low.

 

 

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In reply to: spot on Wednesday 23/03/05 01:55pm

Hi,

 

Yes its all a bet on the future.

 

My own, for the little it is worth.

 

Not one normally calling doom and gloom and this is not one that happened one day in the Dow. A few factors in there. Fed, our market stalling, lack of any correction ect.

 

Plenty willing to keep buying today on dips.

 

Short term all I am talking about is a correction, nothing more.

 

My own ..... calls

 

Oil down rather than up short term. Maybe US$48- before higher later in the year.

 

Dow to 9,886 short term.

 

ASX 200 correction to 3964 possibly, however well below the 4180 level at present.

 

Who knows.

 

Maybe a one day wonder ........

 

Long term

 

OIL gradually higher into 2010 and beyond

 

A$ to struggle at higher levels and to be a lot lower 2008.

 

As to the markets longer term, bullish on resource especially energy, bearish on banks and retail sector.

 

Probably and very possibly wrong on every one of my crystal ball calls.

Thats what makes a market, differening views and actions taken.

 

 

Only time will tell the future.

 

Thanks for your replies. Interesting how we each see the market at present.

 

Cheers

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  • 4 weeks later...

In reply to: kahuna1 on Wednesday 23/03/05 02:26pm

Howdy ,

 

I am holidays but still playing as you can see !!

Working holdiay ? Not !!

 

Well it has taken 20 odd days to get to my target of 3964 in the ASX 200.

Although right now we aren't there, undoubtedly by 10.30 am Monday we will be there.

 

For myself, I have a few more stocks on board but mainly from Friday with some OXR and IVC,ROC,COA.

 

Monday is going to be rough. For myself it is time for the cash to be put to good use.

Amazingly some stocks with good numbers for the past year and even better expected numbers as we go on 2005/06 have been slammed along with the rest of the stocks and in most cases more than double the fall from the high in the index to where I think we will be at 10.30 am Monday.

 

Always hard to buy in a market that looks as sick as this, but when I look at a stock with a P/E of 12 and expecting double digit growth for 2005 and 2006 .... And being off 20% from its high not so long ago, either the world is going to end or this is a great opportunity to buy. Have at this stage completely resisted trying to pick bottoms on this push down, but this was the target I had in mind and tomorrow I feel will bring the perfect opportunity to get in. When there is wholesale panic on one side ... The sellers tomorrow ... I suspect the lows we might see in some stocks will be far lower than they should be without the panic.

 

Of My favorite 50 stocks ... I feel I have a good chance of picking up a fair few a lot lower than Fridays close ... Somewhere in the range of 4-6% down on Fridays close. So hopefully if all goes well by 10.30 I will be back around 100% invested.

 

Oil has dipped as I hoped but seems to be well supported round here and maybe the US$48- target was a bridge too far ! We did dip briefly below US$50- but not for long.

 

As to shares, I suspect the US market still has a little way to go, also some of our stocks still overcooked, however the real performers with low P/E's and very good prospects going forward are about to hit levels in some cases 20% lower than the highs seen 2 months ago ... It is time not to be so greedy for me at least.

 

Just for a change I am doing the exact opposite of the crowd ... Hahaha ...

 

Gotta get back to my holiday .... Suspect the low is near if not Monday .....for the ASX 200.

Might get it a bit lower but usually the bottom end finishes with this sort of move ....panic.

 

My crystal ball worked last time .... Wonder if it does when I am holidays ?

All the best ... Back Late June

 

Cheers

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In reply to: wolverine on Sunday 17/04/05 04:35pm

Hi Wolv,

 

Nope wasn't long puts or short stocks.....

 

Have got a few more this morning but unispired by the rally ..... tipped them all back out.

Market still feels weak, sitting right on the support 3960-64 ish and really feels soft ... todays rally only lasted an hour or two so suspect lower ....

 

Who knows ? Back again to mainly cash, just going to set some very stupid buy levels and back to the hols ....

 

I thought this mornings stuff was silly but overall market still feels looks and smells weak.

 

When a lot of companies were off 20% from recent highs near the open this morning and the market has failed even to hold its lows it really doesn't look pretty to me.

 

Next big level I have is 3880-85 ... so will set buys around 5% below todays lows and just close my eyes.

 

All the best.

Back to the holiday !!!

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