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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?


kahuna1

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QUOTE (alonso @ Saturday 25/08/07 06:35pm)

alonso

 

QUOTE
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

 

It's not 1929 just yet. The decennial cycle has worked for over a century. The markets WILL continue to rise into end of 2009/10

 

 

wassa

 

QUOTE
woteva: Would you mind sharing the name/code of your Canadian Cobalt play ??

 

Caledonia Mining listed on the TO:CAL and the NASDAQ OB:CALVF

 

A purely speculative play that will pay enormously and I mean ENORMOUSLY if they can pull it off.

Their Co property alone could produce earnings in the order of $3-5 per share @ 14K tpa and their PGE's could double that. Currently no debt and they do own a producing mine Au mine that is under expansion to 100K ozpa,unfortunately in Zimbabwe,but to date they have avoided any problems as they have a very good rapport with the government.

 

Last .105 US

 

Cheers

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I think the Author is a nut case, because if you read up top she suggests to take all your cash out of banks and holding it because of the bottom falling out ....the other thing is the source ...THE RUMOR MILL !!!!!!!!!!!
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In reply to: NightStalker on Saturday 25/08/07 08:18pm

Hello nightstalker,

 

Not sure what you mean by my 'missing the point'. I was well aware that the quote referred to 1929 (and I did do a double major in history at uni so know a bit about what happened soon after) and was merely inferring that alonso's quote was meaningless. Hence my question 'so what?'. I'm not interested in just one comment by one economist in 1929. I would be more interested if arguments were presented regarding the representativeness of the comment, the justifications for it, reasons for why it was wrong and how the circumstances of the error are relevant to 2007. I'm no economist, but I assume that the models used by economists now are a little different to those used in 1929.

 

Cheers.

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Paperclip,

 

The explanation further down that it is likely to be an investment fund with a large amount of redemptions following from the last few weeks financial instability.

 

I cannot see a terrorist group having that sort of money to play with if they were planning an attack with the vew of making a profit following the event.

 

You don't think it would be a litle bit of a giveaway to Homeland Security about their planned activity?

 

MM

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In reply to: hero on Sunday 26/08/07 08:31am

Morning, Hero http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

 

Sorry - no offence intended. I just thought that the two word reply of "so what" didn't really convey much in the way of either a question or a comment, so I just thought you may have missed the date of the quote, and the irony of "famous last words".

 

I assume that was what the poster intended by posting the quote - the irony, and perhaps the large pinch of salt we should all be taking with the various doom-and-gloom scenarios being spouted by various "experts" in the media.

 

 

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Dear K and all,

I was talking to a fashion shop retailer, hornsby, early august, she said the sales had died, couldnt work it out. Heard of confidence? ten days of market collapse and the purse strings closed up. No doubt were I to see her again things would be picking up.??

read this into the friday figures and you see july 06 had two months of market decline precursing it and was likely a pretty sick month. Contrast that to this year and the two months leading up to it we have full confidence for a good spending july. I have no doubt the people on the ground have felt things tighten spending wise in the US too since late july and the shocks that went with it, even though the official august figures wont be out till late september and will be ameliorated some by the recent bounce.

Looking into the future, if in july one house in 693 was reposessed, with the october reset looking to be nearly double for the ARMs and repossession trailing resets by??? How many months can one not quite meet the repayments before? so current rate makes one out of 55 homes over a year repossessed, if this rate doubles as of post october one house in twentyfive (over a year) reposessed?? How much refinancing cash will there be to bolster the public spending?

Looks to me some pretty serious problem presenting itself.

question, Can the fed or greenspan transmute it?

Greenspanomics did save the skins of the marketeers in 2000, 2001, dropping rates did support the markets, but what expense?

Total revaluation of the property markets and loans. Now comes the piper, instead of stripping back the marketeers now it is the less conscious home owners and over three years it might be?? one in ten?.

So?? Another dose of greenspanomics? Roll out the greenbacks?

 

Read Huck Fin? The King and the Duke? Absolute fraudsters, yet the gullible midwesterners lapped them up , Asleep at first, then impoverished, they chased them out of town. Little seems changed. So economy, or economic health becomes a moral consideration requiring both acuity of thought, modesty, and good willed industry. In this field America seems to be currently most in need.??

Sure monday might bounce but..?Where to then?

aoz

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In reply to: auroraoz on Sunday 26/08/07 09:21am

so whats the script for this coming week

 

I suppose our market will charge out of the blocks Monday morning then peter out late in the week as the falling tide in the US reveals more corpses ?

 

US becoming less important as a global player but markets don't see it that way yet

 

have cash should the oilers get dumped for no reason

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One BIG factor people forget is that circumstances are very much different between now and 1929. As I have said earlier, whilst history can and does repeat, circumstances can be different.

 

In 1929 the global economy was on a gold based standard. So the response to a market crash was very much the opposite to what it is now. The PTB now having no constraint on money supply/liquidity are able to inflate out of a crisis.

 

I am not say that the days of deflation are over, it is just that it would take a virtual collapse in the whole system to create a deflationary environment. The only way that could come about would be a total melt down in the derivative positions of the major global derivative players, thus overwhelming the ability of Central banks to supply the economy.

 

It could happen, but if it did, then 1929 would look like a picnic by comparison.

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