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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?


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At this point in time, l think we have seen the worst. Sure some more 'news' will come out of the woodwork . . . but with the xjo where it is, things seem much more sensible. I expected 5700 to be an interesting level and it may or may not become support but at this price l am looking to really start buying lots of bargains. Some solids like ROC and the banks . . . but also specs that have come of about 40% off recent highs!
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mrbear ,

We share the same planning and the same lack of courage today . I have been 60% cash for 6 months and today I bought 10,000 NMS for .65 . Why didnt I buy a stack - too careful I guess . BUMMER .

Maybe I will have a bit more courage tomorrow to hit IMO and some more NMS.


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Well - if I hadn't been watching it with my own eyes ... I never would have believed it! I watched the Dow climb from being over 300 points DOWN, then that amazing rally in the last hour or so that brought it up to finish UP - in the green - positive for the day - !!!!! (OK - the closing auction took it back down 15 points, but you know what I mean).


Also, the Dow futures went up almost 400 POINTS in the last 45 minutes! Incredible stuff.


Now if you look at the day's chart for the Dow, doesn't it seem like deja vu compared to ours on the ASX yesterday? That HUGE V-shaped dip in the middle of the day (and I'm sure that ours yesterday was NOT caused by the SFE 'computer outage') then that amazing rally in the last hour.


Maybe my post from yesterday, about sniffing a market bottoming out, could - just COULD - be coming true?


Not sure why the middle of the day was so important - perhaps that was when the hedge funds had to settle all their debts and margin calls? But the chart pattern strongly suggests that this could be all over bar the shouting.


Now I realize that there will be a bazillion punters out there who remain nervous, and will take advantage of every little rally in the Dow, the ASX, etc to "get out even" and unload their shares, to sit it all out for a while. This will lead to some very wobbly little ups and downs for some time yet as each rally is met by more selling.


BUT - we could see the start of a nice see-saw pattern of recovery over the next few weeks.


I'd suggest - very hesitantly maybe - that today and next week may be a good time to start dipping the toes back into the swamp, and looking for those bargains before they regain their real values. Not talking so much about speccies here - although they may well rally too - but the good companies that have been carried down in the overall sentiment. Because that is what I saw happening in that amazing last hour on the ASX yesterday, and now on the Dow.


Of course, another bit of bad news about junk mortgages, or in fact anything about the US economy (or China/India/Japan/Swaziland - you name it) could send the whole system back into a tailspin, but it just seems to me, as I posted yesterday, that we could be witnessing the end of the dip.


Once the hedge funds (bugger 'em) have sorted out their sources of paper funny money, they will be back in there buying - and perhaps they'll be buying shares long again to build up some real assets instead of the houses of cards that they have been? And that may also boost the recovery phase.


We could be in for an interesting next few weeks, troops! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif



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In reply to: NightStalker on Friday 17/08/07 06:09am

God bless you .. AND AMERICA!


This is the best bit of news I have read since 2am this morning. I woke up ... looked at the market and have been awake ever since.


Listened to the 6am news on ABC Radio who started with the London Market and then the Down down 300 .... so that's where I thought we had finished.


If I have another child I am going to call it after you ..........


Thanks for a FABBO post!



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If I have another child I am going to call it after you ..........


LOL http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif


Poor kid - fancy having to go through school named NightStalker! Heheh


Dow futures are already up about 40 points into the green, from having been down almost 400 points only a couple of hours ago.


Base metals were well down overnight, so maybe resources could weigh on our market today - but that was before that amazing rally on the Dow, so who knows WHAT could happen here today?


As I said - today could be a VERY interesting, and crucial, day.


Just be careful we don't slip into the reverse of the emotional panic selling we've seen over the last few days. Be very aware that it's all too easy to slip from being pessimistic, fearful, and angry into a state of optimism, enthusiasm, and greed. Need to keep a tight rein on one's emotions today.



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In reply to: dee27 on Friday 17/08/07 08:57am

It looks like a genuine reversal to me even if only short term, but I'll take anything at present.

There is no telling how long it will last, however, I suspect it will last at least a week or so before we turn south again.




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In reply to: King Baz on Thursday 16/08/07 08:31pm

Good luck to you Baz. You certainly picked the right time to go to cash! Hardly worth commenting on the endless dribble by many on this(and other forums) on how they are 70/80/90/100% cash (duly noting that they didnt see fit to tell us that until AFTER the meltdown!)


all the best! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

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In reply to: wolverine on Thursday 16/08/07 09:21pm

Hi W,

I tentatively called it capitulation around 2 to 2.30 down 5 % or so.hope it was the last real panic.maybe one big bang left ??


it was sheer panic yesterday.

I believe it was a result of the futures exchange closing for a period around lunch time.No hedging available , they sold physical stock like there was no tomorrow.Not very edifying.

I only bought some CBA in the mid 51's.

very tempted by plenty of stocks but caution is warranted so wanted a proven performer with good divvies.

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