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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?


kahuna1

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In reply to: kahuna1 on Wednesday 15/08/07 05:14pm

I am glad that some of us are beginning to think outside of the market direction and starting to consider the scull duggery of the trading houses and their snazzy software.

 

All is visible to those in the business of executing buy/sell bids in advance of any market direction. The swings today did seem more played out than your average. Must have had all hands on deck, stacking then culling.

 

Having possibly the largest ever self funded traders using the internet as a means of trading, the most we do is click a move and rely on the cyber world to make it happen.

On the other hand if you are on the recieving end of the instructions, Oh what a glorious feeling: Dow down, SPI, down, Indicators negative, Doom, CFD traders bargain hunting, stop losses flooding in, some smarty pants places silly low bids ( yours truly ) and Shakespere eat your heart out, a play to behold.

 

The low gets lower, new stop loss then, Amazing as soon as stop hit, sorrow and relief and Whats this, it cant be, should have held a bit longer, its back up and above, impossible but hang on almost closing time and a new low. Sorrow ,relief, then hang on a minute, what sort of bull was that!

 

Smoke and mirrors, no one to blame in the swing of things, just agreeing to join in for profit ( or loss, bite my tongue). New technology makes life easier and easier for others to make more money. We are using a trading system that is provided to us , then customized to our needs. We become text book clients ( not all as easy to read as others).

 

Sorry to rave or preach but i would also like to make it clear that not all that is going on can be Sub Prime and all that. Would expect some or most here are aware of the intricate world of grabbing the cash schemes but for the others maybe consider the possibilty before you pay for it.

 

I Payed to learn. Some of the best money i ever spent forcibly.

 

 

That said, Dow at 13010 in the morning.

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QUOTE (jkconnor @ Wednesday 15/08/07 06:52pm)

Hi JK,

 

QUOTE
Tonight, I am going to stick my neck out and say a bounce. A bounce of 187 points. (I think we used to bet $1 each overnight). If I am right everyone who is reading this can buy me a glass of my favourite NZ sauvignon blanc. I don't have terribly expensive taste ... Wither Hills will do just fine. Anyone else want to play???

 

Looks as if you'll have to join Wolve and Mr bear in a glass of Chateau Digit Enculee http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif

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Peckerheads ....

 

 

All I can say.

 

Knew why I kept some money on the table but this will hurt a bit.

 

Either the world ends or it doesn't. It's getting to that stage and when you think oh no they cant do that ... down they slug again.

 

As I said yesterday .... and yet again today tiny moves in metals down yesterday .... but bigger moves in AUD meant the AUD cross against all the most slammed yesterday and yet again today barely moved ... or moved up yet the stocks in some cases 10% down.

 

All I can say despite being 65% invested is I would like to see that again.

 

Yesterday was dissconected with reality ... today ... "I would like to see that again "

time to go 100%. Stuff the lot of them. Spread the rest and maybe even go margined a bit if they do it.

 

Did watch the US market till about 2.30 am ... it was up ... then drifted to just slightly down.

 

As per normal the last hour contained all the goodies.

This time .... as much as I was hoping they did something sane .... alas it was the peckerheads which won.

 

For my own decision making process ...

 

More than a little frayed after the last 10 days.

Developing ears like a front row rugby player.

 

Market doesn't want to hear good news so ... will just pick cherries some more.

 

Did see a few interesting articles regarding the US credit crunch last night. One of the sub prime lenders at the start of the crisis announced he has sorted out his problems and liquidity issues and the stock went up 46% . It business as usual.

 

Two others similar comments ... but thats not the issue ... its the markets mood.

They took the admission one of the M+A hedge funds associates of KKK would take a 40 mio loss up front and maybe a 200 mio writedown as something that meant something.

A 10 billion dollar company writing down 200 mio .... but what the heck. And its in the the thick of it ..... and so it should be.

 

CBA head said it well last night .... the issue is not so much about liquidity ... its more about credit risk and the market is reacting as it should. If you have a lower credit risk you will be charged more and the margins for riskier loans have blown out and credit margins are higher.

 

CBA head said since they are a very low credit risk they dont see it affecting them very much if at all especially in the home lending sector.

 

Meanwhile back at the ranch ... the market will do what the market does best .... adjust till it finds a price where it stabilizes and looking at the sheer terror on some of the specs right now ... no idea where it will be.

 

Just will continue to diversify and see where we end up.

 

Some more industrials banks and the financials on the menu today ... possibly some more specs and miners if they spank them again.

 

I do seriously doubt they can do it again by the margins we saw yesterday especially for the very low end stuff. Anything I suppose is possible ... anything ... but if you were say buying something with a P/E of 7 prior to yesterdays move and you got it 10% lower .... at 6.3 p/e to move it 10% lower again ... gee 5.7 p/e ?

 

Everyone take care .... its only money will be interested to see how my pets do today ... PEM IGO ROC PEM KZL CBH and MBN. I kind of double dare them to move some of them down since out of them some have balance sheets that strong ....

 

Oh well .... not going to try and talk logic into a mob of snivelling fanatics.

 

Been there and done that and try not wasting my time anymore to post the opposing views on things I see as illogical especially individual stocks.

 

Have fun

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In reply to: kahuna1 on Thursday 16/08/07 09:23am

Kahuna l agree with your point but have a friend and she work for which bank and in the last 12 months there financial planners have convinced people into leveraged products and the margin calls that have been going out are huge causing a lot to sell up and get out. And as it drops further the calls that are made seem to multiply a sort of knock on effect. put keep up good posts your analizing make for more interesting reading than any newspaper.

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In reply to: tcisboss on Thursday 16/08/07 06:33am

QUOTE
have a friend and she work for which bank and in the last 12 months there financial planners have convinced people into leveraged products and the margin calls that have been going out are huge causing a lot to sell up and get out. And as it drops further the calls that are made seem to multiply a sort of knock on effect

 

interesting insight tcisboss

Does seem to be some distressed selling atm, especially on the more illiquid specs

I bet a few of us have entered too early on some stocks, thinking they had reached bargain basement, but underestimating the margin call/cfd fallout

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