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The fresh 4.2 per cent fall to US132.19 a tonne on Wednesday night certainly doesn’t make it easy, but Citi’s veteran mining analyst Paul McTaggart makes the case that lower prices might provide investors with much greater confidence in earnings forecasts for the next few years.




hope that analysis is right. i rechon usd $ 100 would be the floor . imho though!! :unsure:



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in is an interesting time. From the front page article of Share Cafe; Home



Dragon's Bite Taking Huge Chunks out of Ore Market

As readers of Share Cafe would have realised by now, iron ore prices have slumped sharply since their May highs as the Chinese government attempts to cut carbon emissions and punish Australian iron ore exporters ahead of the Glasgow climate change summit and then the Winter Olympics near Beijing in February 2022.

In fact, Share Cafe started reporting the government campaign in June and July amid reports of changes to tariffs and export taxes to try and force Chinese steelmakers to source more finished product from offshore (thereby exportin g pollution and carbon emissions) and announcing plans to restrict June to December crude steel production so that total 2021 output was no more than the 2020 record of 1.065 billion tonnes.

Given that background and consistent reporting revealing price movements and some of the reasons why, it came as a surprise to find some business media discovering the Chinese crack down with headlines like "China curbs steel output" and "iron ore set for price hit as China curbs steel output" as though the news is, well, new.


It is not, iron ore has already taken a massive price hit before the AFR front page discovery on Thursday. The Metal Bulletin's Fastmarkets index hit an all-time high of $US237.57 a tonne on May 12 this year for 62% Fe fines (the sort shipped from the Pilbara and the global benchmark) shipped to northern China)


Fastmarkets website had the price of 62% fe fines at $US130.26 a tonne on Thursday.


Now if a price fall of $US107 a tonne or more than 45% isn't a price hit then what is? And that small ($US1.93 a tonne) fall took the price of 62% Fe fines to an 11 month low.


China's campaign against steel industry carbon emissions started in April and has continued to the point where data next week will show it has helped depressed production across wide sections of the economy....

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Iron ore fell over 6% overnight to close at $122.60 per tonne, below critical support noted $130/125 area and approximately 50% below its high of $240 per tonne in May. China, which buys 97% of all iron ore from Australia and Brazil, is reducing steel output to reduce carbon emissions at the same time as Brazil is increasing supply. Under these influences, further falls towards $100 per tonne are likely.




i pointed out that usd$100 mark 4 days ago :o


it's all about supply and demand in the end!! imho

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Iron ore fell below $US100 a metric tonne for the first time in 14 months as China’s moves to clean up its heavy-polluting industrial sector drives down demand.


Futures prices sank to as low as $US99.50 on the Singapore Exchange on Friday. Iron ore has plunged more than 55 per cent since peaking in May, as the world’s biggest steelmaker intensifies production curbs to meet a target for lower volumes this year, and a sharp downturn in China’s property sector hurts demand.




over shooting the support at 100 bucks?? :unsure:



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The price of iron ore fell below $US100 for the first time in 14 months as worries about the anticipated default of Chinese developer Evergrande added downward pressure on the commodity.


Iron ore fell 8.8 per cent to $US92.98 per tonne overnight, according to Fast Markets MB, the lowest level of the year and a 61 per cent decline from the peak in May.


“The market is likely to remain jittery amid lack of guidance, as China markets are closed until Wednesday,” said ANZ analysts.


“Concerns around a spill-over impact on China’s property market are deepening. There is no relief on production cut pressure, as the government is asking more provinces around Beijing to cut their steel production to improve air quality ahead of the Winter Olympics next year.”









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The state of the iron ore market ...... more downside than up?




October is doling out a bit of a late whack to the already embattled iron ore sector in Australia.

A surprise new round of pollution cuts in Tangshan, China’s major steelmaking centre has sent global iron ore prices down by 7% to 10%. Steel mills cut their buying following the introduction of the stricter emissions restrictions in Tangshan.

The price of the benchmark 62% Fe fines delivered to northern China fell around 7% or $US7.21 to $US112.65. 58% Fe fines lost more ..... 10% or $US8 to $US83.06 a tonne and the price of the 65% higher quality fines from Brazil dropped $US9.40 to $US131.30.

These falls will cause more headaches for the big iron ore exporters like Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue in Australia and Vale in Brazil. In the past three months the share prices have slid as iron ore has sold off......


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and this beast will not lie down


The spot price for iron ore has risen 24 per cent to start the year and there is the potential for it to top $US150 a tonne after the coming Lunar New Year break.

S&P Global Platts said its benchmark spot price rose $US9.15 or 6.6 per cent to $US147.90 a tonne on Friday; it closed 2021 at $US119. Chinese financial markets and most businesses will be closed all next week.

28 Jan is the start of the Year of the Tiger for the Chinese.


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