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theflasherman

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what has skipped the press is that pellet prices have dropped 3%. this is not exactly good news for the magnetite projects that are in the 'thinking about it' stage especially since capital costs have increased heaps.
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Suti, yes, good observation. The mid-west hopefuls will not be too happy. Their projects are probably still viable but the returns might not be that earth shattering, especially when you consider that this might be the peak of the cycle.

 

Early Birds, thanks for that! I did quite a bit of work around the Aussie export coal market recently and spot prices rose substantially a couple of months ago coming out of Newcastle and Port Kembla. This suggested to me that their is big demand by the steel making industry. There are other sources of coal and iron ore in Indonesia, but the Indonesian product is generally very poor quality and may actually cost more in the long run. From my observations on the coal project, I think the Chinese are in a very tight spot at the moment. You don't call an "emergency" meeting unless there is an emergency IMO.

 

 

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In reply to: theflasherman on Friday 19/05/06 11:11pm

Hi flsher

the coal price jump from couple months ago was cost by Chinese Gov took drasick action. they shut down so many small coal mine and odered big one to slow down the work for the serious safety issue. too many poor buger been buried under collapsed mine during that time.

i think my translate is very poor. some missundertood for sure. "emergency meeting" been called only for one reason-------- how to fend off the price hike. there is plenty stock pile in their wearhouse far as i know. so the fight could get argly. my guess is price will be lifted but it'll be less than 18% and also they will buy much less than last year. only my guess though. don't think we'll see over 10% headline GDP growth at next few quarter again.

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In reply to: early birds on Friday 19/05/06 07:59pm

QUOTE
four of the steal maker who sign the deal don't represent the major players like Acelor,....still haven't done deal with 3 major supplyer yet. that four who sign the deal they are the only samll player on the field. they are not the one who can set banch marks

 

Hi Early birds,

 

Looks like CVRD got a major player on board now with Mittal Steel also agreeing to the 19% price rise. Mittal are the world's largest steelmaker. They are also trying to take over Arcelor.

 

I know the Chinese are very tough negotiators but how are they going to hold out when the rest of the world is agreeing to the 19% ?

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In reply to: cloudwalker on Sunday 21/05/06 03:12am

yeah cloudwalker, it seems Chinese steel maker is hit by left and right. if Mittal buy out of Arcelor, i can't see how they be able to win this battle. resault of the that will be cut back import volume by Chinese wich is only good for steel price to heat up again.

 

buy some local steel maker's share like of BSL....... what do you guys think??

 

 

ps, thanks flasher for the link. that way we all get prob info, not the oneside the stories.

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In reply to: theflasherman on Thursday 25/05/06 03:03am

from the newswires.....

 

Brazil's CVRD CEO says China's not going to get any

reduction in 19% gain CVRD has squeezed out of European and other Asian

steelmakers. Despite China driving demand, CVRD boss Roger Agnelli says he'll

have no problem selling his wares to other countries. Most analysts expecting

China to settle with BHP (BHP.AU), Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) as well as CVRD at 19%

gain.

 

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