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For those who missed it, this is the text of the presenters note embedded in page 20 of 21 (the graph showing the market size) in todays presentation.


This slide sets the scene in which we are operating. In the last financial year, Cellestis sold product sufficient to perform around 750,000 QFT tests, in one place or another. Some of these were in resource poor areas, to aid groups and the like, so the number sold in the devel,oped world was slightly less.


In aggregate, this represents around 1% of the test market in the developed world alone. We know the USA does ~ 18Milion TB infection tests, and although Japan does far more testing right now, we believe the market for adoption, with modified guidelines, is 8-10 Million tests per annum for persons at higher risk of infection.


In Western Europe, several years ago we conservatively estimated 5M tests per annum ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ we now consider that a low figure, in particular as the advent of a TB specific tests has allowed testing to be done where sometimes, although indicated as needed, it was previously simply not done as the Mantoux skin test was so inaccurate. Occupational testing for healthcare workers is an example, where regulations frequently indicated testing in many European countries, but our investigation showed fulkl compliance was uncommon .


Add this to the tests applied in other developed countries ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Singapore, Oceania, Korea, Taiwan, - in some places with high TB incidence, and the developed world market, meaning places where there is money to pay for tests, exceeds 60M tests. We are at a little over 1%.


So this area here between the arrows represents marketing driven growth. The area we need to occupy in the next few years. What is reasonable in this area ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ what can be addressed with the product we have at hand?


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There's something wrong here. They mention 750000 tests

Cellestis sold product sufficient to perform around 750,000 QFT tests,


Now that seems very low, especially when the sales were $34.461m . That equates to $49.94 per test, and we know that CST is NOT selling at that price.


I would have thought the number of tests would have been roughly double that .... 1.5m.


Is there something in the wording " sold product sufficient to perform" that I don't understand ? :(






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I don't think you have got anything wrong there Henrietta. I think that note was a mistake. I am pretty sure that Tony dropped that slide in from the presentation done last FY (possibly the AGM). In the company presentation in March this year they confirmed they had 2.5% of the market as of Dec 08. You would assume that figure is now somewhere near 3% annualised. So at a guess around 2 million tests.



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It is one that can be a bit light in the market depth and can be pushed to and fro easily, be interesting where it closes out the day?


Closed out the day above recent resistance after another trend line hit, so not to bad as long as it can hold around here.


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So that you may make your diary notes, I can unoffically advise that the AGM is to be held:


2.00pm Monday 16/11/2009


at the RACV Club Queen St. Melbourne.


No doubt the Company will be officially advising soon.



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