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Nickel


theflasherman

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QUOTE (zxspectrum @ Thursday 26/02/04 11:02am)
IN REPLY TO A POST BY zxspectrum, Thursday 26/02/04 11:02amÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ [<a href='http://java script: ShowHide(' target='_blank'>READ POST</a>]</br><div align='left' id='postie1077793345' style='display:none;'>
hi all

i've downloaded the lme prices and inventory volumes data from 1/1/03 - 31/1/04 into an excel workbook and run charts off it if anyone is interested (AUD/EUR/USD).

download from here

cheersÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚  zx

 

Hi ZX, great spreadsheet!

 

If you want more up to date prices sign up for a 1 week free trial at www.metalprices.com . The nuisance is signing up every week with a new email address but nevertheless there is some very informative stuff there.

 

Of interest in Nickel is the reduction in stocks in LME warehouses which the chart in your spreadsheet clearly points out. Your chart ends with stocks at 15,384 tonnes. As of today stocks have dropped further to 13,464 tonnes which is at a lower level than after the recent Inco strike. It seems Chinese consumers are buying the metal to stockpile to avoid predicted shortages later this year. This alone could push the nickel price higher.

 

I sold out of JBM completely near $5.00 and will look to re-enter soon. I believe that current producers with near term exploration potential will benefit the most, hence why I like JBM. Also I can place a spread bet on JBM through IG Index to give me big leverage. What do you believe is your best exposure to the nickel price?

 

I note that you have SMY which I would be keen on at the right price. However, I'm not quite clear how much they have hedged to keep financiers happy?

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY theflasherman, Fri 27/02/04 01:04am   [READ POST]



Hi ZX, great spreadsheet!

If you want more up to date prices sign up for a 1 week free trial at www.metalprices.com . The nuisance is signing up every week with a new email address but nevertheless there is some very informative stuff there.

Of interest in Nickel is the reduction in stocks in LME warehouses which the chart in your spreadsheet clearly points out. Your chart ends with stocks at 15,384 tonnes. As of today stocks have dropped further to 13,464 tonnes which is at a lower level than after the recent Inco strike. It seems Chinese consumers are buying the metal to stockpile to avoid predicted shortages later this year. This alone could push the nickel price higher.

I sold out of JBM completely near $5.00 and will look to re-enter soon. I believe that current producers with near term exploration potential will benefit the most, hence why I like JBM. Also I can place a spread bet on JBM through IG Index to give me big leverage. What do you believe is your best exposure to the nickel price?

I note that you have SMY which I would be keen on at the right price. However, I'm not quite clear how much they have hedged to keep financiers happy?

Hi guys,

 

If you can be bothered you can get articles with the up to date lme prices from here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/n/y/y0023.html

 

Usually there is one after 3 pm during the arvo, which gives a good indication of likely direction during the night...as commentary too.

 

Find it very useful for late trading.

 

IGO is by far the best, and most undervalued nickel stock at the moment...JBM then MCR next in line, followed by SMY.

 

As a quick guide to IGO, JBM, MCR, SMY):

 

IGO 5 year minimum mine life (7 years expected, with potential for 10), 40% hedged until march 2006 but with currency hedging arrangement too, 70% increase in ni production from mid this year, with expectant avg grade to be around 4.5-5%. EPS of 10.05c for Dec half which was 2md highest behind JBM. No dividends planned, ecquisition likely. Exploration results likely from tropicana, dalwallinu, wackilina this half year. Recent exploration result at victor south underestimated by market.

 

JBM: Hugely profitable, but limited mine life of around 3 years at moment, epxloration potential to increase minelife and should do so, large dividend yield, but mkt cap will start to limit its attractiveness to speculators

 

MCR: stupidly spun off its copper assets (but good for TYC shareholders), plenty of potential to increase mine life at mittel and associated. Currently around 4 year mine life with redross, mariners, wannaway and miitel. Not much exploration elsewhere which limits its attractiveness to me, unhedged so profit should increase a fair bit this half year, but i think priced at moment.

 

SMY: production start up will see it rerated significantly, THX JV has promise and could be a LIO target. Excellent nickel exploration potential at the sally malay mine at depth, expect increased reserve

 

Otehrs i like are AGM, ATX, TIR.

 

I have opinions on some of the others but better left unsaid.

 

Cheers

 

Cdchi1

 

PS: leonta, you almost gave me a heart attack with that article http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/graduated.gif

 

Disc: holding IGO

 

 

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY theflasherman, Fri 27/02/04 01:04am   [READ POST]



Hi ZX, great spreadsheet!

If you want more up to date prices sign up for a 1 week free trial at www.metalprices.com . The nuisance is signing up every week with a new email address but nevertheless there is some very informative stuff there.

Of interest in Nickel is the reduction in stocks in LME warehouses which the chart in your spreadsheet clearly points out. Your chart ends with stocks at 15,384 tonnes. As of today stocks have dropped further to 13,464 tonnes which is at a lower level than after the recent Inco strike. It seems Chinese consumers are buying the metal to stockpile to avoid predicted shortages later this year. This alone could push the nickel price higher.

I sold out of JBM completely near $5.00 and will look to re-enter soon. I believe that current producers with near term exploration potential will benefit the most, hence why I like JBM. Also I can place a spread bet on JBM through IG Index to give me big leverage. What do you believe is your best exposure to the nickel price?

I note that you have SMY which I would be keen on at the right price. However, I'm not quite clear how much they have hedged to keep financiers happy?

Hi Flash,

 

Thanks for the feedback - will update the spreadsheet with February stocks and prices once they are updated on the lme site (seems to be EOM).

 

The nickel chart will be very interesting - with falling inventories I am surprised not to see a corresponding price increase. The end of the Falconbridge strike caused the price to drop off recently - I think maybe a bit too much. Strike or no strike we are still looking at massive supply shortfall. THe price seems to have tested support at $14,000USD twice now and it has held.

 

I cant contribute much regarding other nickel players as I dont know the sector well enough and would only be guessing. I am happy with SMY they recently made an announcement re: hedging to which the market reacted quite favourably. Its not too much of their production, and they seem to have locked in a reasonably good price (at a favourable AUD rate). Also, with their reserves they will do well at current Ni prices - further price rises are pure upside.

 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20040210/pdf/3klkcfv1479bq.pdf

 

SMY production scheduled to start August and so far I have not heard of any adverse news. I would do well to start looking at some of the other Ni players you have mentioned.

 

Cheers zx

 

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY zxspectrum, Saturday 28/02/04 05:36am   [READ POST]


Hi Flash,

Thanks for the feedback - will update the spreadsheet with February stocks and prices once they are updated on the lme site (seems to be EOM).

The nickel chart will be very interesting - with falling inventories I am surprised not to see a corresponding price increase. The end of the Falconbridge strike caused the price to drop off recently - I think maybe a bit too much. Strike or no strike we are still looking at massive supply shortfall. THe price seems to have tested support at $14,000USD twice now and it has held.

I cant contribute much regarding other nickel players as I dont know the sector well enough and would only be guessing. I am happy with SMY they recently made an announcement re: hedging to which the market reacted quite favourably. Its not too much of their production, and they seem to have locked in a reasonably good price (at a favourable AUD rate). Also, with their reserves they will do well at current Ni prices - further price rises are pure upside.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20040210/pdf/3klkcfv1479bq.pdf

SMY production scheduled to start August and so far I have not heard of any adverse news. I would do well to start looking at some of the other Ni players you have mentioned.

Cheers zx

Hi ZX

 

A few comments on JBM. I think it is great leverage to the nickel price especially as 50% of their processing costs are denominated in USD (according to their latest presentation). However I would be more comfortable getting back in closer to $4.00 if possible. It is nice to see a floor come under it at $4.30. Now that the dividend is out of the way I think reserve estimate for Anomoly 1 will be the next driver of the price. These results are due in the June quarter so I think I have a bit of time to assess.

 

Some very positive factors are the strength in the nickel price despite the end of the Flaconbridge strike and continuing chinese demand.

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Hi All

 

Thanks for the positive feedback on the spreadsheet I posted. http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

 

I have updated with Feb 04 prices and stocks off the lme site.

 

download from here

 

also worth taking a look at the copper chart - 300,000 tonnes inventory down from about 800,000 this time last year. The copper price is also starting to accelerate.

 

 

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY zxspectrum, Tue 02/03/04 06:10pm   [READ POST]

Hi All

Thanks for the positive feedback on the spreadsheet I posted. http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

I have updated with Feb 04 prices and stocks off the lme site.

download from here

also worth taking a look at the copper chart - 300,000 tonnes inventory down from about 800,000 this time last year. The copper price is also starting to accelerate.

Hi ZX.

 

That is excellent.

 

I added some trendlines which looked interesting...

 

C

 

 

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ZX,

 

I've just had a look at your spreadsheet. That is one hell of a good job you've done there. Thanks for sharing it.

 

I have a bunch of spreadsheets I did for property investment if they're any good to you, I like to give back what I get.

 

If property investment doesn't do it for you I have a bunch of educational tutorials in pdf format on Technical Analysis which you may like.

 

These offers are open to all others who may want them.

 

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