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Nickel


theflasherman

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What do you mean, price of nickel is down again? Last close Friday eve was

at US$ 7.45 /lb or AUD $ 21,150/tonne which is very much at the higher range

for the year.

 

My understanding is that nickel is in high demand and likely to stay like this

for next 12 months or more. Yes, there will be down days, but they'll be relatively

few and far between. It laways happens.

 

Any price over AUD $ 18,000 is very, very good.

 

R/Tulip

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My guess that price of nickel will actually drop to-night, as it is really at the high end

of the scale at the moment. Forecast US$ 7.25/lb (AUD $ 20700 approx.)

 

How do you find any responses to this discussion? How can you search for it?

Please let me know.

 

R/Tulip

 

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In reply to: tulip on Monday 18/04/05 08:09pm

I was just giving a brief report. I will be doing this while the Ni inventories are approaching all time lows. $7.2402US/lb currently tonight, that is down 2.8% since Fridays close. Yes, youÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re correct that these daily swings mean little in the LT.

 

IMO Ni for the coming qtr could hit $10US/lb. I hope I donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t regret what I just wrote. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ohmy.gif

 

Rgds

LSM

 

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In reply to: tulip on Monday 18/04/05 08:19pm

tulip, nickel has already hit a low of 7.21 tonight. Currently at 7.27...has been hit more than the others.

 

At the top of your screen there is a 'subscriptions' tab...add thje 'nickel' discussion to your subscriptions (i think this is what you mean).

 

Cdchi1

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Inventories: 7,872 -360t

PON: +0.64% $7.2046

 

So tonight I will have another attempt at the Ni price for the coming qtr: Drum-role pleaseÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦

 

$4.50US/lb http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif

 

I thought after lasts nightsÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ effort I should do what most analyst do and under estimate. Anyone want to pay me $110K a year now because I stuck my neck out with a valuation on Ni at $4.50US/lb? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/laughingsmiley.gif

 

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Hi CDCHI1 and LSM,

 

Yep, I agree with CDCHI1 and am prepared to have LSM give me odds that

my price (super-ultra conservative at US$ 6.50lb) will beat LSM's price at US$ 4.50/lb.

as at 19 October - 2005.

 

IMHO I don't think we'll get any odds from LSM as he knows his remarks are based

on pure frustration. Now I can live with that.

 

R/Tulip

 

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Tulip,

 

I think LSM was jesting about the $4.50US...ie making fun of analysts out there who come out with ridiculous forecasts (and getting paid for it)...for example the analyst that forecasted a nickel price of $5.45US for the MArch quarter IN MARCH despite the nickel price being over 7US for most of it.

 

http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

 

Cdchi1

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In reply to: cdchi1 on Tuesday 19/04/05 09:03pm

I posted this on HRR - I think it is relative to the Nickel discussion and I would like you all to be aware. Hector

 

"I am not sure your valuation of HRR share of the project is correct. Based on nickel at US$3.50 per lb which is universally the figure used when forecasting profitable development of nickel projects, annual revenue from the KNP will be $710 million and the mine life is set for a minimum of 25 years. At nickel at todays price of over US$7.00 per lb you can see that the annual revenue will be over $1.0 billion per annum. IRR is 25% based on studies conducted by Sinclair Knight Mertz and Snowden.

 

The value of the nickel insitu is worth over $100 billion. So HRR share of the KNP project , is worth a lot more than $100 million. Inco will fund the feasibility study to the tune of over $50 million alone and will provide funding for a $1.4 billion plant.

 

The JV is for a 40/60 partnership, THE BEST DEAL EVER STRUCK BY AN AUSTRALIAN JUNIOR (and let us just discount Fortescue and Twiggy until we see the cash!)

 

All this information is available in the Dec 2004 Investor Presentation on www.heronresources.com.au

 

This highlights the fact that the market still does not get this story. Brokers still do not get it. Inco has been at Heron for over 12 months conducting due diligence - they know what its all about and so the agreement is all but signed and in fact may actually be signed at this moment and ready for announcement.

 

With Nickel at $us3.50 per lb the forecast cashflow valued HRR at over $4.00 per share.

While they now will control 40%, Nickel is twice as high and is likely to remain so for some time. I have spent a long time researching this company. I will be holding until $3.00 and this is not far away once the deal is cemented with Inco. Forget BHP.

This stock is no longer speculative - WE ARE WATCHING THE EMERGENCE OF ONE OF AUSTRALIAS BIGGEST MINES !!!

 

Now Technically there are about 160 million shares - 70% are held with long term large stakeholders. if you assume 1 in 3 or 4 trades are now going to buy and holders rather than Buy and daytrade then THERE WILL BE A SQUEEZE on this stock supply very soon.

The next time it goes into trading halt there will be an announcement about the deal and it will come back on at $1.50

 

There you go everyone, I've laid it all out there as I see it - back up the truck and load up. Deals like this come along rarely. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

 

I'm off to Melbourne tomorrow so good luck"

H

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In reply to: tulip on Tuesday 19/04/05 08:58pm

Cd summed it up, just a bit of ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¹Ãƒƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“tongue in cheekÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ stuff T. Posting just Ni numbers seems wrong to me. T, donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t take me too seriously because I donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t!

 

Common sense is the most widely shared commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it. - Rene Decartes (1596-1650)

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