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theflasherman

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Interestingly Macquarie accounted for approximately a quarter of buy trades in JBM in todays trade. not bad for a sell recommendation. Their clients not taking their advice obviously. I have been looking at JBM for a while now and Macquarie are the main accumulators. Paterson Ord Minnet sold approx half of JBM stock today.

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY theflasherman, Wed 07/01/04 08:29pm   [READ POST]


Interestingly Macquarie accounted for approximately a quarter of buy trades in JBM in todays trade. not bad for a sell recommendation. Their clients not taking their advice obviously. I have been looking at JBM for a while now and Macquarie are the main accumulators. Paterson Ord Minnet sold approx half of JBM stock today.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/01/...3268069013.html

 

Nickel futures fall

January 7, 2004 - 8:05AM

 

 

In London, nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with the rest of the complex following suit, as profit taking became the order of the day after the metals' brisk New Year rally, analysts said.

 

Benchmark three-months nickel finished Tuesday's kerb at $15,200 a tonne, sharply down from $17,100 at Monday evening's kerb close and a far cry from the day's fresh 14-1/2 year high at $17,720.

 

"There is clear evidence of price dips being bought and any correction should be brief and shallow... Clearly these markets are very volatile at the moment and that should continue," Ingrid Sternby, base metals analyst at Barclays Capital.

 

((((this is basicly what Macquarie said, but he said the next BIG up cycle would be in 6 to 12 months)))))

 

Cheers Tex.

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I forgot the timing difference with the North American markets. We should know before Aussie market opens whether unions will call for a strike at Falconbridge.

 

Nickel at $16,100 ahead of the announcement. A$ is very strong at 0.7754 currently. A$ nickel price is therefore $20,763 down substantially over last few days.

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2 hours to go... seems a fait accompli according to this article

 

Falconbridge Union Seen Backing Strike Mandate

Thu Jan 8, 1:55 PM ET

 

 

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (Reuters) - Workers at Falconbridge Ltd.'s Sudbury, Ontario, nickel complex are certain to vote overwhelmingly in favor of giving their union a strike mandate, analysts said on Thursday, as members began casting their ballots.

 

 

 

The outcome of the vote at the prime nickel facility of the world's third biggest nickel producer is due around 8 p.m. (0100 GMT).

 

 

Hemi Mitic, a spokesman for the Canadian Auto Workers (news - web sites) union, which represents 1,080 workers at the Falconbridge unit, said there had been a high turnout at the first of the day's three voting time slots.

 

 

"There is not going to be any surprise (on the vote)... The rank and file will give the endorsement to their negotiating team," said David Davidson, an analyst at Paradigm Securities.

 

 

The union, negotiating a new contract against the backdrop of the highest nickel prices in 14 years, is seen in a strong position to demand an attractive settlement. But across the negotiating table it faces a firm determined to rein in costs.

 

 

Strike mandates are a routine part of bargaining, with most approved by a large union majority and a "yes" vote does not mean a strike is certain.

 

 

But analysts said the market was betting on a labor stoppage as the Jan. 31 deadline for the expiry of the current contract approaches.

 

 

"I would say there is $1-$2 in the nickel price that is basically built in for a strike, so I think the market is expecting that," said Davidson.

 

 

"If there is a settlement at the 11th hour, I have no doubt that nickel prices, if they are at these levels, will give up ground," he said.

 

 

After a sudden but short-lived drop on Tuesday, nickel prices rebounded again on Thursday, jumping $850 to close at $16,100 a ton ($7.30 a pound) on the London Metals Exchange.

 

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Let's see how the LME reacts. Looks like the news could in fact be built into the price according to some analysts.

 

Reuters

UPDATE - Falconbridge union backs strike mandate

Thursday January 8, 10:11 pm ET

 

 

(Adds vote outcome)

VANCOUVER, British Columbia , Jan 8 (Reuters) - Workers at Falconbridge Ltd.'s (Toronto:FL.TO - News) prime nickel site in Canada voted overwhelmingly in favor of a strike mandate on Thursday, a union official said, a widely expected development after weeks of tough talks to forge a new contract by month end.

 

Hemi Mitic, a spokesman for the Canadian Auto Workers union, said union representatives had received a 98 percent mandate from the 725 production and maintenance workers at the Sudbury, Ontario, operation who voted.

 

The turnout represents two-thirds of the unionized work force at the mining and processing operation that produces nearly 5 percent of the world's nickel.

 

Strike mandates are a routine part of bargaining and most are approved by a large union majority. A "yes" vote does not mean a strike will take place, and Mitic said negotiations would continue until Jan. 31 when the current contract expires.

 

But analysts said the market was betting on a labor stoppage, which would come a time when nickel, used to make stainless steel and coins, is in desperately short supply.

 

"I would say there is $1 to $2 in the nickel price (per pound) that is basically built in for a strike, so I think the market is expecting that," said David Davidson, a metals analyst at Paradigm Capital Inc.

 

"If there is a settlement at the 11th hour, I have no doubt that nickel prices, if they are at these levels, will give up ground," he said.

 

The union, negotiating against the backdrop of the highest nickel prices in 14 years, is seen in a strong position to demand an attractive settlement. But across the negotiating table it faces a firm determined to rein in costs and grappling with poor performance at a key copper facility.

 

After a sudden but short-lived drop on Tuesday, nickel prices rebounded again on Thursday, jumping $850 to close at $16,100 a tonne ($7.30 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange.

 

 

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Nickel savaged in London today. Closed at US$14,850 a tonne. Couple with the rising A$ at 0.7782 on my screen currently means the A$ price of Nickel has fallen substantially since those highs early in the new year to $19,082.

 

We should probably see some more weakness in nickel stocks as well as other metal stocks today on the ASX.

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A familiar pattern in the trading seems to be emerging on LME nickel trading. By the end of the ring sessions we are seeing a modest gain, but at the final kerb trading the price is being savaged as stop losses are being triggered.

 

Current price is US$13,800 a tonne or A$17,838 a tonne approx. This is still about A$1,000 above where prices where at the beginning of December but off massively from those unsustainable highs.

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spot the error in reference to rio tinto...

 

WMC MICHELMORE

MELBOURNE, Jan 15 AAP - Rio Tinto chief executive Andrew Michelmore said nickel prices would continue to be volatile in 2004 as demand remained strong and high prices attracted interest from speculators.

"There is extreme volatility (in the nickel price) and it's not variations in supply and demand," Mr Michelmore told a briefing today.

"It's not customers it's hedge funds taking positions.

"We know there is a considerable number of tonnes being speculated ... and with continued high demand out of China and solid demand out of Europe, I think we will continue to see that.

"Prices are up on the higher end where people will speculate."

He said while prices had come off the high end this year on profit taking, the market had yet to see the impact of recent industrial issues at major Canadian nickel company Falco and Inco.

"I think there's still quite a bit more that's going to play with that volatility," he said.

Mr Michelmore said he still had concerns about the rising nickel price, which could force the price of stainless steel beyond affordable limits, prompting customers to seek alternatives.

"The European market is more mature and is used to the stainless steel producers putting a premium on and simply passing through the cost of nickel and cobalt chrome etc," he said.

"(But) in China ... there are many applications where, if the price of stainless steel is too high, you can use zinc coated steel and I think if the price stays up at a high level for long enough you will see that substitution occurring.

"This isn't a bottomless pit for the customers. There is a time where they will say enough's enough and they will change to something else."

Mr Michelmore said WMC resources was well-positioned for a continued strong market in its major commodities of nickel and copper.

And, with the major work at its Olympic Dam operations now behind it, WMC Resources was looking for a much stronger contribution from the plant in 2004, he said.

AAP

15-01 1205

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