Jump to content



Recommended Posts

Afternoon session even better



LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Base metal futures on the London Metal

Exchange (LME) sprang back into life on Tuesday, as speculative funds piled in to buy against

a backdrop of thin seasonal trading, and more gains are on the cards, analysts said.

"I had assumed we were winding down but the funds are back in again...Nickel and copper have

been the leading contracts and the others followed," Angus MacMillan, minerals strategist at

Prudential Bache International, said.

Benchmark three-months nickel <MNI3> stole the show on Tuesday, hitting a fresh 14-1/2 year

high at $15,725 a tonne. Prices eased back to close at $15,610, but stood sharply up from $14,995

the previous evening.

"From a technical perspective, nickel's RSI (relative strength index) is well overbought.

At best, I expect a period of consolidation.

On Tuesday, nickel's 14-day RSI stood at 95 percent. A reading over 70 percent indicates

overbought status.

Copper <MCU3> closed up $16 at $2,235.

"I think copper has got more legs (than nickel), it's not as overbought," PruBache's MacMillan

said, adding that a move through resistance at $2,250 would not surprise him.

Aluminium <MAL3> gained $10 on the day to finish at $1,580.

In market news, the LME said on Monday its investigation into the aluminium market had uncovered

evidence of a form of collusion and misconduct by non-LME members, and that it had referred findings

to Britain's Financial Services Authority (FSA).

Zinc <MZN3> moved back through the key $1,000 a tonne threshold to close at $1,003, versus

$989 previously, while tin <MSN3> went untraded in the kerb, last quoted at $6,270/80 from $6,155.

Lead <MPB3> strengthened to $695 from $678 previously.




Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 547
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Can you guys let me know if you find these posts useful? No point posting all this stuff if you guys think this is obvious or that I am trying to push a barrow.


Nickel closed at $US16,590 a tonne, up 4.35%. at some point this must be overbought. RSI suggests so, apparently.



LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Base metal futures on the London Metal

Exchange (LME) pushed higher on Monday, as short covering replaced overnight interest in Asia

to lift some markets to multi-year highs, though thin trading had exaggerated the move, industry

sources said.

"It was a bit of short covering after light buying interest in Asia, but we weren't exactly

inundated with offers," a trader said.

Analyst at Man Financial, Edward Meir, said: "It seems there is no stopping the metals price

juggernaut, with each dip being well supported even in thin trading conditions."

"We expect to see prices work themselves even higher, as the mix of news remains largely

constructive: limited supply, low stocks, steady demand, strong chart patterns and funds searching

for places to park investments.

"In the case of funds, commodities of all shapes and sizes seem to fit the bill perfectly

this year, as they are perceived to be the best way to play the global economic recovery theme."

Nickel <MNI3>, which is mostly used in stainless steel production, was prominent with prices

reaching fresh 14-1/2 highs in early trading, mostly on short covering, traders said.

LME stocks dropped by 1,044 tonnes to 21,606 on Monday, while the International Nickel Study

Group last week put world producers stocks at 85,200 in October, up 5,900 since September.

Three-months nickel reached a fresh multi-year high around $16,600 a tonne at the midsession

-- a high last seen in March 1989. Prices eased back to close at $16,400 on Monday, but stood

sharply up from $15,750 last traded before the LME closed last Wednesday.

On Monday, nickel's RSI stood above 80 for the ninth day in a row. A reading over 70 percent

indicates overbought status.



Copper <MCU3> closed up $40.5 at $2,281 a tonne, around a level last seen in mid-August 1997.

Fresh dollar weakness on Monday helped lift the euro to record highs against the greenback, leaving

dollar-denominated metals a cheaper investment for overseas investors.

Still, bullish sentiment was capped by news at Codelco's Chuquicamata copper in Chile, where

trade union leaders said a vote in favour of a company wage offer and averting a strike was expected.

The final vote count was due at 2100 local time (0000 GMT).

Aluminium <MAL3 gained $2 on the day to finish at $1,591.

Zinc <MZN3> ended marginally up at $1,009 versus $1,003 after earlier trading at $1,013,

a new high last seen in March 2001.

Tin <MSN3> was last quoted at $6,450 from $6,330 -- a fresh 7-1/2 high, having hit $6,465

in July 1996.

Lead <MPB3> strengthened to $716 from $703 previously, leaving prices around highs last seen

seven years ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nickel has cracked US$17k a tonne. Now at US$17,160 on my screen.


The AUDUSD spot rate is 0.7689 (Ask).


A$ spot price is therefore $22,318 a tonne. At the end of last year the A$ price of nickel was $22,150 so we have seen a modest rise in A$ terms compared to a rise of around US$500 a tonne on the LME.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

what a volatile day!!



LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Nickel futures on the London Metal

Exchange (LME) closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with the rest of the complex following suit,

as profit taking became the order of the day after the metals' brisk New Year rally, analysts


Benchmark three-months nickel <MNI3> finished Tuesday's kerb at $15,200 a tonne, sharply

down from $17,100 at Monday evening's kerb close and a far cry from the day's fresh 14-1/2 year

high at $17,720.

"There is clear evidence of price dips being bought and any correction should be brief and

shallow... Clearly these markets are very volatile at the moment and that should continue," Ingrid

Sternby, base metals analyst at Barclays Capital.

In market news, unionised workers at Falconbridge's premier nickel facility said on Monday

they are concerned about the slow pace and tenor of negotiations with the world's third-biggest

nickel miner, which began on December 1.

A spokesman said local 598 of the Canadian Autoworkers Union would be pushing for wages and

benefits for production and maintenance workers at the Sudbury, Ontario unit on par with those

of members in auto plants in southern Ontario.

Talks to renegotiate a three-year contract expire on January 31.

Also heavily hit by profit taking on Tuesday was tin <MSN3>, which lost $300 on the day to

close at $6,240 -- substantially down from the metal's new 7-1/2 year high at $6,615 reached

earlier in the session.

Tin's new support was pegged at $6,200.

Copper <MCU3> took more of a back seat on Tuesday, with losses comparatively limited. Prices

ended at $2,342, versus $2,377 at the last kerb close.

"The longer-term target for the (copper) bulls remains $2,500 but at the moment this appears

to be a bridge too far, although after recent activity it would be foolish to suggest that this

level is beyond the realms of possibility," LME broker IFX said.

Aluminium <MAL3> also got off relatively lightly, closing at $1,607 from $1,613 previously.

IFX was upbeat about aluminium's prospects: "The new-found confidence surrounding the base

metals complex at the moment should encourage fresh spec/CTA (commodity trade advisor) buying

over the mid-term where the upside target remains a challenge of $1,650."

Zinc <MZN3> closed down $20 at $1,027, while lead <MPB3> dropped $10 to $728.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IN REPLY TO A POST BY theflasherman, Wed 07/01/04 09:21am   [READ POST]

Nickel stocks on my watchlist (SMY, JBM, MCR, MPM, WMR) heading down a little. not a huge reaction though. Could be a short term trading opportunity if Nickel recovers. Anyone's guess though!

I watched the stock report on cable tonight, Macquarie said sell nickle stocks after 10% fall in overnight markets.

They still think nickle is worth a play in 6 to 12 months but at the moment it's coming off 14 year highs.



Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Create New...