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Ruckmauler

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Hey Arty,

Can you make the chart bigger it's hard to see anything.

Cheers Pete..

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Just goes to show what little knowledge I know about charts , would have called it a double top.

 

Got home from work early and got caught up in the frenzy and topped up a part fill @ 36 before being squashed.

Gee , probably bought at the top once more , but anyway still in for the long run . Know you day trade arty and always glad to see your charts and hear your say.

 

Cheers

 

 

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Hi Pete; hopefully this is big enough. :)

 

For Crooky, I've also explained why the double bottom has now a much better chance of succeeding. You're right, however, if today's candle had stopped at the 37.5c resistance and if subsequent trades were heading down below 20c, then there would be the risk of a double top.

Note also the long-term falling trendline from June last year. That was also broken today, giving the move even more credibility.

Will the two gaps up there come into play? I don't know, but I'm willing to wait and risk a wider stop range.

post-20537-1237969512.gif

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How does a chart take into account that the Company has just announced it has as much gas as is required for :"Brisbane's entire current natural gas demand for over 60 years"

 

Candles, double bottoms, tea cup handles etc don't seem to take into account GOOD or BAD NEWS.

 

N.M.Mer.

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Candles, double bottoms, tea cup handles etc don't seem to take into account GOOD or BAD NEWS
You're absolutely correct, N.M.Mer;

But for a Technical Analyst, the news isn't important; it usually shows in the chart well before an official release, because -

  • As the hint of misfortune seeps through even the tightest security blanket, even the most cautious selling leaves a mark.
  • If one of the obvious fears came true - e.g. water contamination, uncontrolled ignition... - some people would know first.
  • Somebody has to type/ compile/ dictate a good news story, such as the resource upgrade.
Repeat: Technical Analysis is not concerned why a trend change happened, but when and how far?

post-20537-1238137388.gif

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Hello Arty,

 

Are you saying that charts can only give you an idea of the future, if news is leaked before the public is informed - that you rely on insider trading to give you the trigger to BUY or SELL ?

 

 

"Technical Analysis is not concerned why a trend change happened, but when and how far"

What is the use of knowing WHEN and HOW FAR if you are not interested in what caused it and if it will cause it to occur again.

 

I like to look at charts for comparing one company's long term performance with another and comparing them with the sector performance, but to me, a lot of the talk by the charting fraternity is just a lot of ifs, buts and maybes which does not take into account "stuff" happening in the real world.

 

Thank you for your answer,

 

N.M.Mer.

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that you rely on insider trading to give you the trigger to BUY or SELL ?

 

NMM

 

I guess you could say there is some truth to that. If charts show what is going to happen (FA wise) BEFORE the news is released, someone has a good idea about it, if not the hard line.

There is a lot more to it, but most ppl that bag charting simply don't understand it. (I'll cop a bagging i'm sure for that, but I'll stick to the theory anyway)

 

Charts do not lie, but people do. Even important so called trustworthy ones :(

I think that has been proven time & again the last year & a bit. It would take too much effort to type the co's that have gone under around the world lately & taken innocent investors money to the grave. It ain't over yet either!

Cheers

 

 

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Are you saying that charts can only give you an idea of the future, if news is leaked before the public is informed
Absolutely not, N.M.Mer;

1. I said "it usually shows in the chart".

2. While the examples may give the impression of "inside information", that is definitely not implied.

3. News - good or bad - is only a small part of the influences that shape market mood and mass psychology.

 

Please also note that I was talking about Technical Analysis only. That analyses market behaviour according to laws of statistics, which, when applied and interpreted correctly, will provide a sheaf of possible outcomes, each with their own probability for risk and reward. What you call "ifs, buts and maybes" is indeed part of that picture. Whether you want to study the details and the science behind it is up to you. Many aspiring traders tried, and as in every profession, there are some that "get it right", some that fail to grasp it at all, and a big group in the middle. Most of T.A. traders will at least understand the gist of an honest T.A. discussion; whether their personal Trading style accepts every conclusion is a different matter.

 

PS: Thanks hungry. We're obviously on the same page :graduated:

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