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In reply to: freoman on Tuesday 26/08/08 01:58pm

hi Freo. Nice to see someone alive on this thread at last. I agree/hope along with you as I have a holding at average of .38cents including a top up this week at such low SP. I don't want to lose my money and had a philosphical feeling about farewelling it all today but there is still hope. The shopping centres are full, bringing in the money and paying all financing costs and in time their underlying real estate values, now down, will go back up again. The bankers are likely to support CNP and extend debt again for longterm as I can't see how they could have thought the company could raise $4 bill by end of the year. They extended deadlines for debt repaying several times when they knew the figures already. They lose more if they pull the plug so it will go on I am sure/hope to see better days.

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In reply to: vida on Tuesday 26/08/08 05:22pm

One would think the banks would be making a fortunein CNP from the interest rate and other fees and charges

Just like they rip us meer mortals off http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/thumbdown.gif

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QUOTE (freoman @ Wednesday 27/08/08 01:08pm)

exactly. I told off an anz customer service person recently when she tried to explain the reasons why my interest earned on my savings account for the 12 months ended 30 Jun 08 was a big .38 cents, when I have had on average up to $8,000 in it over that time, the total going up and down a bit over the year. She said it was because one of the interest earning conditions was that I not make any withdrawals from the account!! I had not known that and what a stupid account and condition - its not a term deposit. THey have used my money all year and given me .38 stupid cents which even the ATO doesn't want to know about. This is simply pathetic, wrong and theft if you ask me anyway you look at it.


Yeah CNP would be a goldmine for the banks, they are not insolvent and they will be able to pay a little of their debt down once the contracts for sale of assets are signed and exchanged etc and transfers documents completed, their leases are still making a profit and the woes in the balance sheet are well known and the banks would already be pulling the plug by now, if they were going to at all. THey have too much to lose.

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I agree that the banks have more to gain by continuing to fund CNP than by selling them up - at this stage. This doesn't mean, of course, that once they judge that values will be high enough to allow them to exit intact that they won't put more pressure on the company.

I'm a holder but not confident that it's a good idea to keep holding if economic/credit conditions deteriorate further.





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QUOTE (macduffy @ Wednesday 27/08/08 05:53pm)

MacDuffy: I agree with you that there is no certainty, I am not confident about it either but it seems worth a risk at this point. If we could be confident about a positive outcome then everyone would be and the SP would be a lot higher than it is. However what you said about the values high enough for the banks to exit eventually, well if the values do get higher then better fund raising and recapitalising will be possible for CNP and they won't be so reliant on the banks who will be pleased that their debts can be paid down faster. That's how I see it and it seems that economic conditions could deteriorate more before they get better but if CNP get extension on debt of at least another year than they could ride it through and emerge at the other end into better times. That is the hoped for outcome.


At the moment the low current SP will depend on what the announcement will be from CNP when it releases its year end results later in the week, I think they are due then. A lot will depend on what the company has to say after its results are out and of course the figures themselves will speak .. so lets wait and see, if its not as dire/desperate as the media makes it out to be then things can pick up with SP over next weeks. The media always loves a disaster story and seems to make it up even when they don't have all the facts..

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  • 2 months later...
  • 2 weeks later...

QUOTE (Qld1 @ Monday 03/11/08 07:57am)

Qld 1: no one can say if its a good buy at this price, its definitely an incredibly cheap buy compared to its SP history but it is a high risk gamble and could be a big pay off BUT ??!!


There are big question marks but the issue is that if the banks/lenders don't support CNP past December into 2009 and indefinitely until the market improves, then the whole Australian property market will collapse not just CNP and that would mean all asset backed lending would be out of the money leavnig the banks balance sheets disastrously grim..


I don't think I realised how big CNP is and that if it crashes and burns and is liquidated everyone loses and not just the money they advanced CNP but money the banks etc invested in property and advanced on other property backed loans as all commercial property values will crash and it will be a massive crash bang collapse the property market


These are the facts and I am not quite sure I expressed it very well here but that's the quick interpretation I get from what I am reading lately. I don't know what's going to happen but at the current SP its probably worth thinking about without risking too much ..

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In reply to: vida on Friday 14/11/08 12:08am

Hi Vida,


After posting the question few days ago, I have also been reading press articles and following another site (HC) on CNP and CER. I think you have very well summarised the current situation of Cento. I hope CBA is not foolish enough to pull out from its current financial backing to Centro and then drag the whole commercial property market in Australia. If they do the foolish thing not only CBA but also all other big banks will get burnt.


I know it is very risky to buy now, but I bought some few days ago knowing very well it could be down to zero by 16 Dec 08 if CBA pulls out OR return could be as much as 1000% if Centro can survive for couple of years.


Thanks again for taking your time to reply.


I see lot of discussion on CNP and CER going on HC but don't see much analysis/research from posters there.



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the large retailers in the states are making some

very pessimistic statements at the moment, about

trading conditions they have never seen before.


Although this an extremely pessimistic view on my part,

have a walk around a centro or westfield mall & take a guess

of how many shops you could do without.

i estimate at least 1/3rd of the shops , in a serious downturn would

not be there.

high end clothes retailers, fashion shops, toys, beauty, food outlets,

sports stores,etc.


consumers might end up only buying what they need, rather than what they want.


This will effect everything , of course , not just centro.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Creeping up again, is news leaking that CNP has an extension?



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