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In reply to: mminion on Thursday 09/12/04 10:49pm

THX down another 2c today and UKD closes first day of trade in the red. I have never picked a successful IPO and am starting to get irritated quite frankly.


If anyone out there has a tried and true method (or if you've had any success really) of working out the wheat from the chaff I'd be interested to know your strategy!




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Ah chasing stag profits. Never an easy game. With speculate floats like biotechs and junior mining companies investor sentiment will be a major factor. The oil sector has been hot lately and recent oil exploration floats have traded way above issue price. If same company floated months ago it would most likely trade below issue price. It's about what's hot and what's not at the present time.


Another issue is stocks that come with free attaching options which imho increase the risk of downside when it lists. Stag trader's will hope to sell the fully paid ordinary at issue price or slightly below and have the upside free carried with the options at no risk. Hence the shares often get smashed.


With established company's that float detailed fundamental analysis is required just like any other listed company.

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Wasteland turns into a stag party

December 11, 2004




Turning over a new leaf, James Bone finds time for visions and revisions which a minute will reverse.


Monday, December 6


There comes a time in every day trader's life when he reflects upon his progress with a sense of dismay. What have I done? he broods, as he surveys the wasteland of a profitless and pointless existence.


Such a moment impinged on my mind this morning, as I surveyed the wasteland of my kitchen. Here were upturned cans of dog food; here, a smashed plate; here, a pile of unidentifiable, general detritus. And there on the floor lay Doomsday, our bear market analyst, deep asleep in his camp bed, the refugee of another row with his odd girlfriend.


He had turned up drunk and, finding nothing to eat, had pilfered a few Lucky Dog Bite Size Pellets.


I chose to leave him there, and took a walk. I have to take life more seriously, I thought. I cannot go on like this. I'm almost 35. I have a wife and child. Yet I'm living like a drug-addled undergraduate in a mosh pit.


I resolved to take myself more seriously. Perhaps the world would too? It was a cheering thought, and when I got home, Doomsday had cleaned up his mess and departed. My wife Grace was luckily at her mother's with our daughter Matilda. So I sat at my computer to rethink my investment strategy. One thing struck me: a stream of IPOs floating before Christmas.



Tuesday, December 7


This is what the press wires said about investment group Australian Value Funds Management: "It barnstormed the Australian Stock Exchange on debut today. The shares listed at 30.5c a share, more than 20 per cent above the issue price of 25c each, and closed at 32c after hitting an intraday high of 36c."


I owned 5000 AVFM shares. The company was once an abattoir, which has morphed into a vulture fund. I sold its shares at 33c, pocketing $400. Not bad for two minutes work - the time it took to do the deal on my new day trader's website.


After this strenuous bout of activity, I decided to book myself in for a massage, which was very relaxing. My masseur insists on dangling her clients' feet in a basin of warm water.


This time I chose a scalp massage, which is surely the most soothing experience of a non-sexual nature available to mankind. It was a great start to the afternoon's work, in which I surveyed the IPO market for further rampant opportunities.


Wednesday, December 8


The Phantom Day Traders called a lightning summit to discuss the return of the David Tweed menace. This is the bloke who goes around fleecing the Zimmer-frame set of their retirement savings, by offering to buy their shares at prices well below market value. The gullible accept Tweed's offer, without checking the market price, thinking that only an idiot would send them an offer below the current share price.


Tweed is the said idiot. But his idiocy has double-bluffed the gullible, and he's now a millionaire.


"He should be stopped!" fumed Yogi, our senior chartist. "He's tarnishing the good name of day traders. He's a disgrace to the profession. People are referring to him as a leech! How long before we're all referred to as leeches?"


We nodded gravely.


"But how?" inquired Byron Dawn, our leisure industries analyst.


"Tweed's family say they're embarrassed to be related to him," offered Bluesky, our stockbroker.


Since we couldn't decide what to do with Tweed, we turned to our 4000 in 2004 celebrations.


FastCash and his girlfriend Roxy tabled a proposal to seek money to pay for the bash from Sydney Mayor Clover Moore, since she's bound to have some spare cash to donate to private parties.


Yogi volunteered to approach Ms Moore. He added, dreamily looking up from his share charts, "Did you know, this has been one of the best weeks for German data in months! Manufacturing orders in October were above expectations and this was also true for production. This particularly applied to durable German consumer goods. Isn't that remarkable?"


Thursday, December 9


Perhaps it was greed that drove me to buy shares in the Diamond explorer United Kimberly Diamond. Or perhaps Grace liked their stones.


Whatever, the company failed to sparkle when its shares started trading today, and I lost money. That was odd, because United Kimberly has three major diamond projects in Western Australia's Kimberly region - the only diamond-producing mines in Australia. I'd have thought diamonds were in great demand. In a moment of transcendent idiocy, I decided to stag the float of Artist & Entertainment Group, the talent scout that represents such people as Delta Goodrem, Cameron Daddo and Jeremy Sims. Having never heard of Goodrem or Daddo or Sims, the move seemed fairly silly at first.


Then I noticed that Ben Macpherson - brother of ex-supermodel Elle - is the company's chief executive, and that made my mind up.


Friday, December 10


Grace returned from her mother's, bearing Matilda in an Indian papoose. We were delighted to see each other, but I felt an odd premonition that something about her had changed, that she wasn't quite the same woman I married.


Perhaps it was the hammering of Boise Cascade that upset her - even if she got out just in time?

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  • 9 months later...

anybody out there know anything about diamond prospecting? This one's right next door to BDI. They seem to have a bit of land to look over. "Highly prospective", they say.


Is the little bit of director buying here an attempt to prop the stock up, or are things really getting cheap?


Would one good announcement trigger a recovery in price? Any thoughts on what the chances might be?


cheers, mm


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In reply to: mooomooo on Tuesday 27/09/05 05:51pm

I still hold these and still feel that there is some serious potential here. As is usually the case with these micro's however it's about cash. Development requires it, and development is what the punters want to see. I hope it goes somewhere sometime soon, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm young, I can wait.



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In reply to: JustinS007 on Tuesday 27/09/05 08:46pm

and again, director buying - that's $17,000 worth. Would there be any reason to be proping the stock up at present?


Justin, the UKD prospectus makes things sound possible, no? lots of lamproites and kimberlites. and, high micro diamond counts. Diamonds are a long shot though. The prospecting histories for the Ellendale field given in BDI's prospectus make interesting reading. Clearly it is possible to look and look and look for a long time. Of about 45 intrusive bodies tested (Ellendale) only 3 have been considered rich enough to mine. so I suppose this one is a 'punt' in anyone's language.


And then there's development, as you say Justin.


They do have cash in the bank. And results due.


does nobody out there have an opinion to offer on the possible merits, or lack of merits, of the dirt UKD are sitting on?









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In reply to: mooomooo on Tuesday 04/10/05 12:46pm

I'm still happy enough to hold, though I would prefer the SP holding or rising rather than falling. Only time will tell if it's worthwhile.



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  • 3 weeks later...

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