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happychappy

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After holding for over 3 years, and watching the shareprice steadily decline, maybe I should have given up thinking longer term regarding this operation. It is now my bank account that sends me to despair. I'm just glad I took the decision to crystallise a substantial loss a few weeks back after a kneejerk decision, rather than incurring a massive loss now. Yes, incurring a major monetary loss may have polarised my view. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions and buy/sell decisions and I wonder if the directors are now considering their own buy decision for Anzon.

 

sm

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Flower unless I am hearing wrong reports it appears as if this equates to a 25% decrease in ROC total reserves (Todays AFR). This is a big number. Not all the fields you have mentioned are the greatest either. I first had a stake in Chingquetti about 6 years ago through Hardman Resources (since been taken over) and I know how tough that all field has been in regards to coups, renegotiation of contracts, harder to extract than first though etc. Personally I think the directors of ROC drive the investers mad and I don't think it is a knee jerk reaction as ROC investors have taken a pummeling over the years with bad news following bad news. I have been watching this stock since my colleague nearly purchased at $1.60 as a hot tip from 'INTELLIGENT INVESTOR' magazine. I keep waiting for an entry poiint but have never found one. I try not to get emotionally atatched to shares but calculate on NPV terms. Cash flow positive does not necessarily mean much if the market knows that is going to happen because it would already be priced into the value of the shares. But then again these are only my views and are probably out of date by the time I push the send button anyway.

 

Kuri

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I did hold ROC quiet a number of yrs ago however in recent times it has been an occasional trading stock for me fortunately I was not caught up in the latest sell off but it has happened to me in the past with other stocks. It is unavoidable at times you did well to accept your loss and escaped yesterdays move.
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well abner, the answer to that will be when they make a positive announcement which based on the balance of probability is way overdue.

why, you ask ?

because they have not made a good announcement since this time in 2008.

mmm, why is this so?

the next agm looks like it will be worth a visit, if something has not happened before then.

to the long suffering shareholders of which i am one, death by a thousand cuts should be their motto.

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Hi abner,

There have been plenty of ROC none- fans on this forum.Here is one made in response to one of flower's songs singing the praises of ROC.Is from late January well before any announcements.

 

"Interesting what you say about ROC. For as long as I can recall,analysts have been in love with ROC.The stock has been (and remains) a persistent dog.This is just one example of why I would not pay for a brokers 'advice'.The chart tells it how it is!"

 

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I posted this on that other site and would appreciate feedback from S/S'ers :-

 

There is a significant "management incompetence" smell about ROC in the marketplace and it is probably costing we shareholders at least 30% discount on otherwise full value.

 

Bottom line is that fish rot from the head .... as to corporations. Bruce is still there pulling his 1/2 million salary plus whilst his owners (shareholders) are bleeding.

 

I also don't hold confidence that the instos will force change - what a bunch of pussy questions they asked him in the phone hookup - only one of any consequence - "are the technical team responsible still there ?" - answer, yes and a few extra bodies.

 

Lets have an extraordinary general meeting and put Bruce to the sword !b.t.w. I really think that ROC is outstanding buying at current price on basis of production over the nexrt couple of years - after that, well there is Beibu Gulf to increase reserves (and subsequent production) and of course, WA 351 P could be a company maker in a very prospective area.

 

Roc on ....

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totally agree with you in the lack of confidence of management. decisions made over the last few years have been costly.

there was a question of further investigation to determine the reserves in the bmg.

if there was ever going to be good news, the last grasp is approaching.

my sleepless nights need a respite.

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From where i sit, alot of the problem seems to be how ultra conservative management appear. As pointed out by mosaic ages ago. Almost seems that good news is stifled & the bad news is always rushed out front & centre. Not sure what the goal is, suspect to keep the short termers out? Well it might work out OK when the market & sector are running hot, but when things are down & out, someone needs to be out there selling the positives. If it takes a management change to do this, so be it.

 

eg. BMG reserves downgrade was based on no further development drilling. Now maybe BPT & other partners might be reluctant to spend anymore, but surely they can give some upside estimate if further wells are drilled etc. Although last we heard the new production well Basker 7 is only producing 500bopd (From BPT quarterly) - that has to be the worst performing well drilled on the field. Either still optimising production or drilled into part of the field already produced by other wells? oops...

 

As mentioned on the other chat site also, one of the old BMG wells was producing almost the current total BOPD for all current wells, but was effected by subsea blockage & shutdown early 2009. That tells me the field is still capable of good rate of production, which you would think should upgrade reserves. Maybe hand operator over to BPT if ROC dont have the technical team to do the job right.

 

As far as the shareprice goes, we have more than likely seen the bottom. Unfortunately for me I had to offload 2/3 of my holding as I was on margin and my stoploss got gapped past after the trading halt. Oh well live & learn.

 

Can't help but think there should be some sort of bounce back to fair value, as this selloff is well over done, but until we see a change of fortune or management style, ROCs time in the dogbox is assured.

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