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happychappy

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PSA (25% interest in Beibu) - have got a useful presentation out today (2.4 Mb download). It gives the most detailed info on the project that I have seen to date.

 

PSA suggest a total cost per bbl of US$6 - suggesting that oil at Beibu should be valued at US$20 per bbl, rather than the rule of thumb US$5-10 per bbl.

 

WOW! That makes for some serious money if you believe the hype, anywhere from $1 - $5 per ROC share.

 

ROC is another of my picks for a no-brainer undervalued oil stock (NVS is my other). Accumulate and wait - no other work required.

 

R/happy

 

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Hi Happy

 

I agree totally. If you add together Chinguetti and now Tiof looks to be the biggest find yet in Mauritania to ROC i believe they have added around 20-30c of value per share with only a 2.4% interest.

 

Now there is basically a free well coming up and i believe the ROC share price will not go down if Pelican is a duster. However, if Pelican is a real goer, ROC will have 5% (after exercising their call option with Dana Petroleum).

 

The reason i believe it is a 'free' well is that China is happening very soon after and this will be the main driver of the price in the short term.

 

Negatives are that no-one really seems to like ROC as an investment, despite being admired from afar. Recent evidence is that the price has not moved on the last two Tiof wells, nor the Brinsby Oil reservoir onshore UK.

 

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Hi Flash,

 

The financial performance of Saltfleetby gas in UK may raise a few eyebrows. Winter prices look like A$7 per 1000 cuf, which probably puts at least $1M per week in the kitty.

 

Mauritania is certainly going from strength to strength. At least ROC don't waste the value of their discoveries by flooding the market with cheap scrip like HDR have done.

 

R/happy

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and yet the market does not reward this.

 

It is very surprising. It is making a tonne of cash, although the AUD/GBP will be eating into it, although not as severely as against the USD.

 

In 2005 ROC will have Cliffhead and Chinguetti coming on stream giving it an even healthier dose of cash.

 

Basically the market is giving no value for assets yet to be deemed commercial and very little for Cliffhead.

 

I think there is some overhang in the stock from the shares given to Elixir for the Mauritanian acreage, but the price ROC paid is now looking cheap IMO.

 

It will be interesting to see when Equitorial Guinea drilling will start as I think it could be the only thing that could put a rocket under ROC. Unless of course Beibu proves up over 100mmbo. ROC share 40mmbo reducing to 20mmbo in CNOCC back in. At A$5 a barrel that is about 2/3 of ROC's current market value. I'm sure we've all done the sums and know the upside. Obviously leverage is in the smaller players HZN, FAR and even PSA. However ROC gives exposure to a lot more wells.

 

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Hi All,

 

ELIXIR shares are definitely the culprit IMO. There has been a steady stream of shares at $1.44 which which just happens to be the ELIXIR issue price. ROC share price took a dive from > $1.60 to around $1.40 once the Elixir shares were issued as final payment for Mauritania acreage.

 

Do they have more to go? There is no seller at $1.44 at the moment, but TIOF-2 success pushed HDR higher, and took out $1.44 ROC sellers.

 

Well I think that ELIXIR still has more (not too many, but a few), and they have moved to $1.46. I think that it will back to $1.44 in the next few days. My best guess is that they plan to exit their ROC position by 31/12/2003 (the end of the financial year for UK companies?) to clean up their books. There last sale could be planned for this coming friday if they want the proceeds (t+3 plus xfer of funds to UK) in UK by 31/12.

 

Well that's my theory, and only time will tell. As others have stated, plenty of drilling activity in the next few months, especially Jan 2004 with possible results from onshore UK, Pelican in Mauritania, and Beibu Gulf china. Let's hope that they are not all dusters.

 

I have a large ROC position, so my judgement may be clouded.

 

Cheers,

Mosaic

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I'll re-iterate my earlier post re finacial strength of ROC.

 

It's a refreshing change to have a company that is not continually doing the pump-and-dump placement.

 

ROC's ability to pick up an expanded interest in Mauritania using its "loose change" is one example.

 

The ability to self-fund the Beibu Gulf drilling is another example.

 

cf Petsec who seem to be in the middle of a captial raising to fund their drilling costs. (which you could have predicted if you'd looked at their cash-flow reports - the last reported quarter was strongly negative, putting a big dent in the PSA bank balance)

 

R/happy

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Hi happychappy.

 

It is nice. but i do wonder when as a long term shareholder we will be rewarded for this great management foresight.

 

Once again today it was up only to get pushed back down.

 

The fact that they now have roughly a 4% interest in Tiof, Chinguetti and Banda seems to be of no interest to the market. A 4% interest in 200mmbo, 100mmbo and 100mmbo. ROC's net interest is now 16mmbo which I would have thought would at least put 10c on the share price but the selling seems persistant. I wouldn't be surprised to see ROC buy more interest in Mauritania off HDR after John Doran's latest comments. I would suggest to ROC to buy into HDR scrip as a cheap way of getting a bigger slice rather than buying permits of HDR.

 

Couple that with A$8/mmcf for Saltfleetby gas sales grossing over a A$1m a week, the cash pile and this is very undervalued.

 

Of course there is China, Onshore UK, Offshore Perth Basin (incl Cliffhead), Equatorial Guinea, Angola et al. A middle east venture is always on the cards as well given ROC's past involvment with Qatar.

 

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Roc'ers - found you all over here !

I wondered why oze/stock was a little quiet. I agree with HappyChappy in that all we've got to do is wait. Exciting time coming up early January in China - not so much leverage as the other partners but no risk ........ a duster or two won't have much effect on price but it will for the juniors.

More buyers than sellers at the moment - I'll be watching for GDN's anticipated exit of Elixir on Friday. If it happens then it is a chance to pick up stock cheaply as China run-up must add 5-10 cents over course of next three weeks.

P.S. Congrats. Happy on great NVS call. Let's hope that you are 'on a roll' and we can get ROC moving in similar manner.

DaJ.

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Hi Daj - it's nice to have a win sometimes, makes up for some of my duds.

 

ROC is tightly held, and probably immune to predators, for better or worse, so not much point punting on a buyout.

 

It's surprising how long glaringly good value like ROC can be ignored. OXR is a good example - there were many, many pointers that OXR was going to go from 10c - $1.00, but it did take a few years. I'm not suggesting that ROC will be a 10x bagger, but 50% up over the next year would be my XMas wish, and I can't see why ROC's assets wouldn't easily support such a price.

 

It wouldn't be such a bad thing if Renee R. tipped ROC, but there probably isn't enough volume for him to pick up his stake before giving it a push. The most we can hope for is to raise the ROC profile by making the effort to keep posting sensible, well reasoned arguments.

 

January should be a pretty lively month, with the next Quarterly Report due out (flagging good winter gas sales in UK) and Beibu under way.

 

There may be a few hot dollars for investment in oilers if people take a profit on NVS, maybe some will find its way to ROC.

 

R/happy

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Tiof Discovery Update

 

HDR are now suggesting that Tiof is a 300 - 400 million barrel (recoverable) discovery!!

 

Thats great news for HDR holders, and not too shabby for ROC either. ROC, with its expanded interests, would now have a potential 20 million barrels to its name from Tiof, Chinguetti and Banda.

 

Thats just under $1 per ROC share if you put use a token value of A$5 per barrel. It's hard to see that there won't be more fields found at Mauritania, so ROC is on a long term winner, hopefully with the share price following the value.

 

R/happy

 

PS I also think that HDR have got the hype machine working to stave off a predatory bid ala NVS, so the degree of exploration risk is being deliberately ignored.

 

As always caveat emptor

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