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EPY - EARLYPAY LTD


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Another great quarters result from EPY - and while not surprising also good to see the FY profit forecast has been upgraded to at least AUD 7m.

 

Would have to agree the FY forecast already looks very conservative. Taking into account the half year profit of 3.4m, profit attributable to shareholders for the 9 months ended 30 September 2006 is approx 5.8m. Even if EPY manages to generate profits for the last quarter (which appears likely given the positive comments in the latest announcement about trading in the first month of the last quarter) they would be looking at FY profit of approx AUD 8.2mm. This would represent a 68% increase over the prospectus forecast - which represents a very good year for EPY.

 

Will be interesting to see if EPY announces further expansion into the other Asian countries they are looking at entering in the next few months. Of particular importance I feel is the ability to get into the China market asap, and establish themsleves as one the leading mobile top-up providers.

 

Until the full year announcement is released it is difficult to gauge how well EPY is doing in the different market segments. However, it was good see revenue for the quarter exceeding AUD 150mm.

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I bought some more this morning on the retrace at 41c/share.

 

Sooner or later I guess I'm going to find out if I've got this one right or not. Someone is dumping this stuff in bucketloads, but someone is buying it all back up on the other side!!

 

What you think Costa?

I can see some inherent risk here, and the fact that the 15% dilution is going to occur....but it still seems just way too cheap. Am I missing something? Full year EPS will come in at almost 4cps, placing the company on a P/E of approx 10.5 pre-dilution and about 12 post-dilution.

 

Couple this cheap factor with the upside growth potential of this company and I just don't see why it is so cheap..

 

My cost base on these is currently 41.9c, I must admit I thought the share price would be at about 50c by now - which only worries me from the point of 'have i missed something?'

 

 

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Also something to note - in the announcements being released to the market they say stuff like 'excluding pakistan and thailand' (qtr 2) and 'excluding any non mobile top up and payments related businesses.' (qtr3).

 

What do these mean?

 

Could losses being generated in other parts of the business be material?

 

Does 'non mobile top up and payments related businesses' include mobiepay? What can it include?

 

These clarifications could bring back what looks like an 8m profit back to the 7m guidance?

 

7m profit fully diluted puts EPY on a P/e of 13.3...

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I would also be interested to know who is offloading all their shares. I know there are some trading limitations on the founding holders so it is unlikely the be them?

 

Hopefully Pakistan and Thailand will be close to breaking even FY 2006, although as you pointed out they phrase their announcements very carefully and it is hard to tell. Would have thought revenue from Mobiepay would have to be included in the numbers as it is now quite a significant part of the business. Under the ASX disclosure rules, it would be difficult for EPY not to include any divisions which could have a material impact on the results (both positive or negative).

 

As you pointed out I think the big area for concern is dilution - both from the exercise of options as well as the issuing of new capital to fund expansion. Added to this is the risk of what the large shareholders will do when their trading restrictions end, as they may well wish to cash in some of their holdings. However, the growth prospects, the cash flows to date and PE ratio in my mind mean EPY is a good medium - long term investment.

 

Time will tell!

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Its been a good week - up approximately 25% on decent volumes with some buyer depth remaining. The increased interest may be due to the institutional investor roadshows in U.K., Hong Kong and Australia which I understand were being held this week.
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In reply to: Costa on Friday 03/11/06 07:55pm

I've taken some profit this week but still have quite a few shares left to put away in the closet. I'm working in Bangkok now and will try to visit the e-pay Thailand office in Lumpini when I can in order to guage when they plan to set pre-paid mobile payments.....and when I know, you'll know. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif

 

Cheers

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Sharedude - would be very interested to hear your thoughts should you get a chance to visit the offices.

 

Two more media articles on EPY have been released on the company's website (www.e-payasia.com). One is on the listing process EPY went though, and the second is a brief investors report rating EPY as a buy.

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It has been a pretty quiet last couple of months with EPY, although now there first year since listing is complete. Will be interesting to get some more information when the full year results are released in early 2007 in terms of the growth the have managed to achieve in the last quarter of 2006.

 

It has also been a while since the potential alliance with E-Charge India was announced which may indicate issues finalising the deal?

 

Overall a postive first year since listing - up to 53 cents since listing at 20 cents with the maiden dividend to be declared with the full year results (expect it to be around 1.5cps). Is difficult to make any predictions re 2007 until the full year results are out.

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