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XAO - All Ords


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In reply to: spot on Sunday 07/01/07 11:28am

Hey spot;


Thanks for your reply. Agreed, prices just don't and can't keep going up.


I just wanted to confirm the weakness I am detecting, as I am still in test mode with my (recently developed) methodology.


My price targets are 5540 and 5470. How do they sound to you?


Thank you once again for your reply.



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In reply to: Vyking on Sunday 07/01/07 03:54pm

i follow the XJO rather than the XAO, because it is the cash index for the futures. i think

there's big resistance at the 5250 level for the cash XJO. the March SPI closed at 5509 on Saturday, so we're going to thump down on the open tomorrow. so we might have a rocky month.


looking further ahead, in the context of current world bond and energy prices, it's hard to see world equity prices not continuing their upward surge. it's interesting that in 2006 in adelaide,

property prices have fallen most in the traditional blue ribbon suburbs where a lot of people

own second properties. one can surmise that people are selling out of property investments

and putting the money into super before july1 and that this money will flood into the stock market.

i feel that the money going into super in the next six months will be a torrent and that the XJO will surprise on the upside as we come closer to june30.

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In reply to: spot on Sunday 07/01/07 07:25pm

Hey spot;


Unfortunately I don't get end of day data for the XJO, I only get it for the All Ords (XAO) and the major sector indecies. I am therefore unable to comment on that specific index.


As for the fundamentals discussed, which is certainly not my strong suit but will endeavor to make myslef clear............


I tend to agree with the long term outlook for the equity market for these reasons;

1) Resources demand will not slow down. Therefore these companies and any supporting services companies (transport and processing) will also continue to appreciate.

2) Due to environmental issues, new sources of energy will emerge - eg. Alternative fuel cars - they are much much bigger in the US and are making a stronger presence in Europe.


What I consider are the "Big Ticket Items" that will put a damper on the equity market;

1) Private equity (made up of super funds etc) going bust on one of their HUGE deals. In my opinion this will really be like a domino effect, and good luck to us all of this happens. case in point Barings going bust!!!

2) Oil prices, prediction are, and this is becoming more and more talked about, that oil demand as already started to outstrip productions, and there are not enough new fields being discovered.

3) The damn war in the middle east - primary cause for the deficit - resulting in higher interest rate, etc etc etc.


Not so sure that I agree with your assumption re. property in Adelaide though!!!....Also, I believe that the best benefits for Super is AFTER June 30 this year. Post this date, you can put as much money into super as you like - no limit - and it will not be taxed (PAYE that is, but will be on exit of course).


I am not sure that Bonds will remain the same given the higher budget deficiet predicted for the US. I believe this may put upward preasure on interest rates and Bonds. Please don't ask me about a time period, this is not my strong suit!!!!......


Anyway, I hope this makes sense. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif and it didn't make you reach for tv remote. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif



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wrong board for continued discussion on super but I think the super holiday is now ie you can stash %$# loads in .After June 30 I think there is a more stringent limit of 50k (off the top of my head and prob wrong).I believe it still attracts 15% tax in but when the rules change if you are over 60 nil tax payable on withdrawals.Seems arse about to me but who am I to judge??


5 minutes of research and I could either be half right or totally wrong but that is my late sunday night memory of super according to peter Costello.Too late for that anyway and anyone affected should check no matter what.


dunno about adelaide property either but it may be a microcosm of a trend.

Sheer weight of money was a popular theory a few years ago in the usa and I think it is/will be a factor here also unless (when) a left field event frightens the living daylights out of the mkt.


cheers ,


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  • 5 months later...
Sheeesh have I got cold feet.All ords looking at a downer on Monday but the big ? is will the DOW continue DOWn. If I was gambler I would bet yes.(gulp...careful with that axe Eugene) http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/mad.gif
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  • 3 months later...

In reply to: henrietta on Monday 15/10/07 03:06pm

Perhaps the question is so dumb that no one has the heart to reply. Be that as it may, I see that the DOW was up on Friday, that gold and metals are up today so far, and yet our general market has the nervous nellies. Why ?

Or is this question a bit like , "How long is a piece of string ?"




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  • 1 year later...

In reply to: henrietta on Monday 15/10/07 04:06pm

I agree - it is a bit boring with everything down so far, should be a good buying opportunity when the trend changes............if I had some cash lol


with my amatuer charting skills I noted the support at mid 3900 and also the very slim chance of a dip to 3500.


I also note the similarity in shape to the 87 event and similar size in percentage terms


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