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from the news wires......


Benchmark LME 3-month copper last $3,257.50/ton, up

around $5.00 from late kerb despite strong USD. Sydney trader says nexus between

base metals/USD appears broken for now. Copper consolidating, supported by

"rampant" ongoing demand for base metals for infrastructure in China, he says.

What else can explain current price action, he asks. Impact of Chile earthquake

already factored in, he says. Price "isn't showing any (major) signs of coming

back" following rally to $3,300 in early June from $3,000 mid May, he says.

Trader puts strong support around $3,180/$3,220; break of resistance at $3,350,

could see sharp surge higher. Aluminum little changed from late kerb at



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In reply to: balance on Wednesday 15/06/05 02:38pm

and some more .......


LME 3-month copper $3,352.50/ton, down $5.50 on London PM

kerb, with little to indicate metal's next moves after edging back from Monday's

$3,435 record high. LME warehouse stocks falling to 33,050 tons, lowest level in

31 years, but physical market far less tight, with resulting soft premiums.

Divergence between futures, physical markets making it increasingly difficult to

forecast next direction for copper, says Rothschild Australia. Longer term,

outlook remains bearish.

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In reply to: balance on Thursday 23/06/05 12:10pm



Copper watchers asking when, not if, market swings back

to surplus, resulting in downward price correction: Goldman Sachs JBWere

forecasts late 3Q, early 4Q turning point to modest surplus on surge in

available smelter/refinery capacity as non-China demand relatively weak; more

substantial surplus likely in 2006. Current record prices fueled by low stocks,

supply disruptions, robust Chinese demand, but says speculators playing major

role, with shift to visible surplus likely to give funds, CTAs confidence to go

short; with prices to keep beating expectations in July, though, ups average

2005 forecast to $3,020 from $2,910 while holding $2,425 average for 4Q, $2,447

for 2006.

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Hi balance,


A word of caution...regarding your commentary forecasting a lower copper prices...I suggest you keep a close eye on the following event as it unfolds...we may see copper at $1.80 before the year is out ($4000 per ton).


"Supplies may be disrupted if workers strike at Asarco Inc., the No. 2 U.S. copper producer. The company and unionized workers began talks on a new labor contract yesterday. The union has said it will put "economic pressure'' on Asarco if the talks fail."



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In reply to: SCD on Thursday 23/06/05 01:03pm

*** 1 week and counting... ***


For more background on why Copper Could top $1.80 per lb (US$4000 per ton) http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/lmaosmiley.gif


Union prepares Asarco workers for possible strike




NEW YORK, June 14 (Reuters) - The United Steelworkers of America said on Tuesday it will hold sessions this week with union workers employed by copper miner Asarco in Arizona and Texas to prepare them for a possible strike.


The union cited for the meetings a lack of progress with management in negotiating a labor contract.


"It's been almost a year since contracts covering nearly 750 hourly Asarco employees in Arizona and Texas expired, and Asarco has still not made an acceptable offer," USW District 12 Director Terry Bonds said in a press release.


"We must prepare for the worst, if it becomes clear we are unable to negotiate a fair and equitable agreement that is acceptable to our members," Bonds added.



Representatives of Asarco's parent, Grupo Mexico , were not immediately available to comment on the union's plans.



But Asarco Chairman and Chief Executive Daniel Tellechea told Reuters the company wanted to avoid a strike, if at all possible, and that there would definitely be no strike before July 1.



Tellechea said the next round of talks was due to start on June 21 and run to the end of June.



"Right now, we are looking at what we can do, but the intention continues to be to talk with the union to see how we can avoid a strike and keep working," the Asarco CEO said.



The last round of talks took place in December.



The CEO said he thought the union would resort to a strike only if the two sides were unsuccessful in their next round of talks.



Labor contracts that covered hourly employees at the company's copper facilities in Amarillo, Texas, and Hayden, Sahuarita and Marana, Arizona, expired last July 1.



The USW said labor agreements between Asarco and unions covering some 750 hourly employees at the company's copper mine in Ray, Arizona, will expire on July 1.



In early May, Grupo Mexico said proposals had been exchanged between the company and the USW, but they failed to address key issues surrounding a labor agreement.



The two sides began contract talks about a year ago, but Asarco and its union workers are still far apart on salaries and benefits.



In the USW release, Bonds said the company was demanding a wage freeze and substantial reductions in health care and pension benefits.



"What we offered last time was a wage freeze," said Tellechea. "I don't know yet if we will maintain that for the negotiations that will start on June 21, possibly. That's what the negotiations are for.



"I don't know if we will change (our position) or not, but it's our intention, definitely, to avoid a strike," he said.



In April, Mexico City-based Grupo Mexico reported a 29 percent increase in first-quarter profit from strong copper prices and from greater production of other metals.



Last week, copper prices hit 16-year highs on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange and in March copper soared to an all-time high price on the London Metal Exchange.

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In reply to: SCD on Thursday 23/06/05 02:03pm

g'day scd,

I would much rather your forecasting / opinions / articles be correct , trust me on that.


this stuff straight the fin news wires as they come.Not saying its right, far from it, but it adds to the reasoning as to why stocks such as oxr are not where we would like.Its been frustrating hold in oxr.

if 4g's eventuates I'm set for it , however, I do watch closely what the industry folks say even if it turns out to be a load of old bollocks.

I think the negatives are a bit overdone and even the worst case prices predicted as previously posted would see low cost hi grade producers making plenty.

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In reply to: SCD on Thursday 23/06/05 02:56pm

from the news wires...


Despite murmurs of impending speculative shake-out,

copper regains about half ground lost from last week's record high; LME 3-month

last $3,367.50/ton, +$1.50 on London PM kerb. Factors supporting more gains

include critically low and still falling exchange inventory, approaching end of

quarter/year positioning, possible closure at Zambian Mopali Copper Mines on

safety concerns.


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In reply to: balance on Monday 27/06/05 10:23am

news flow turning more positive on cu? a bit perhaps.

been a lot of downside reports of late.

from the news wires.......


Tight physical copper market means going short on

Shanghai futures exchange "simply too costly," says local trader, after

benchmark contract closed Friday at CNY33,860/ton, +CNY480 on declining

inventory supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data. Expects both

Shanghai, LME markets to remain strong until fund sentiment shifts to reflect

rising global supply, waning demand growth; near-term price crash unlikely,

although stockpiling speculation making already volatile market even more

jittery. (JAD)


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LME 3-month copper $3,367.50/ton, up slightly on London

PM kerb, but confined to $10 range, extremely thin volumes prevail in absence of

clear cues ahead of U.S., H.K. long weekend, tonight's Fed rate decision, says

H.K.-based trader. Expects tight $3,330-$3,370 range for coming sessions.

Shanghai's most active September contract CNY32,840/ton, up CNY540, back in line

with recent LME movements, also lacking clear bias.

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