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Copper


thekiwi

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Tis only a couple of cents away from all time LME high-go you good thing.

Just some copper stocks:-

RIO

BHP

WMR at the big end

 

OXR (plus gold)

TTT

LAF (plus zinc)

AVM middle rank producers or near producers

 

PNA (plus gold)

CUO

URL

EXS

Climax

KZL (plus zinc)

JML

IRN

MRX at/ approaching BFS

 

TYC

ORC

Equinox slowly getting teeth into larger plays

 

STL (plus TTT position)

CSE

GML

MNR

TAS with various exploration plays

 

Probably left a few out by accident.

Cheers,TAS

 

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Has not been a post here a for while so thought I'd plonk this here.

From the new wires..........

 

Recent strong demand for Shanghai copper waning, with

benchmark June contract CHY31,200, down CHY240, after metal failed to gain

ground overnight on LME, local buyers priced out of physical market, says

Shanghai-based analyst. Adds downward pressure expected to continue as USD stays

strong.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

and some more......

 

LME 3-month copper rebound likely capped at current

levels, around $3,160/ton, before dipping to around $3,100, which again

represents decent buying opportunity as may head back toward $3,300, says

H.K.-based trader. Adds recent base metal declines not end of current cycle,

rather part of healthy technical correction, although with some fundamental

basis as some stock re-enters market, easing spreads, short covering

opportunity.

 

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  • 1 month later...

Not sure if anyone reads this except me but anyway .......

 

Shanghai copper futures up sharply, tracking overnight

LME gains, supported by still tight inventories, expectations of further supply

declines. Most traded June contract CNY32,850/ton, up CNY460; July CNY31,540, up

CNY610. Local trader expects prices to stay strong coming sessions despite

consistent talk of large number of Shanghai-bound shipments for June.

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from the news wires.......

 

Early modest gains for some base metals from

short-covering can't be sustained, with complex succumbing to continuation of

negative sentiment of past several days, says HK trader. LME 3-month copper last

$3,222.50, down $15 from late kerb close, nickel $15,890, down $22.50. Major

participant says "a good deal of uncertainty is evident in the market place";

Putting aside big influence of speculators, cites many negative influences

weighing on copper, fueling doubts higher prices can be justified.

 

 

 

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Here is a good reason why copper prices can be justified.

 

Supply has shown NO SIGN of catching up with demand at ANY TIME in the last 3 months.

 

From global stockpiles of 1,300,000 tonnes just 2 years ago, consumers of copper over the past couple of months began an assult on copper stockpiles which pushed global stockpiles down below 100,000 tonnes...then through 90,000 tonnes and tommorrow I expect a break of 80,000 tonnes (stockpiles at the close of business yesterday stood at 80,369 tonnes).

 

The month of June has traditionally been the period when manufacturers of copper close and workers take their summer holidays. At this time of year, stockpiles are typically replenished. The fact that this HASN'T happen is evidence that the demand for copper shows NO SIGN of abating.

 

IMO, copper prices will hit $4000 per pound before long! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/graduated.gif

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In reply to: SCD on Thursday 09/06/05 03:51am

SCD, as an investor in a couple of copper plays which won't come into production for a year and a half, I hope you are correct. I think there is more supply about to come onto the market. But you also have to note that the "secret" stockpiles are almost exhausted as well as the low "transparent" stocks.

 

Maybe it is best to look at the forward curve for guidance which suggest a price of $2,700 a tonne (approx) 15 months out.

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Some stuff from the news ..........clearly something is going on.Which way will it go?

 

The failure of copper inventories to build in London Metal Exchange warehouses amid the current backwardation might be caused by someone withholding material, according to a recent report by Australia's Macquarie Bank. But government data suggests that Chilean producers are not the culprits.

 

Macquarie noted that despite declining inventories, copper supplies at the mine level as well as the smelter/refinery level are growing. Moreover, demand for copper has been down in the US, Europe and Japan, and flat in China. And demand is likely to remain lackluster due to the seasonally slow July/August period. "Although reported stocks have not risen, someone must be holding metal off the market," Macquarie said. But a look at Chilean production figures for the first quarter shows no sign of any stockpiling.

 

And another........

 

Copper prices both in London and New York continue to rise on the back of reduced global supply as inventories have hit record lows.

 

In New York, prices rose to the highest in 16 years last week on expectations that demand will outpace production, eroding global inventory that plunged 67 per cent in the past year.

 

 

Copper future prices for the July delivery rose 3.85 cents, or 2.5 per cent, to US $1.555 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange after reaching US $1.565, the highest since January 1989.

 

Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell by 950 tonnes to 42,275 tonnes last Friday, extending a drop to the lowest since May 1988.

 

The decline, combined with reduced inventory in the United States and China, the biggest copper users, helped push prices up 24 per cent in the past year.

 

Copper for immediate delivery on the LME was offered at US $209 per metric tonne more than the contract for delivery in three months, a level last seen in July 1997.

 

Copper for delivery in three months on the LME rose by US $44, or 1.4 per cent, to US $3,223 per tonne in London as of Friday.

 

 

In China, stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, second to the LME in terms of copper futures trade, fell 30 per cent from a week ago to 19,848 tonnes, a four-week low.

China is the world's largest copper consumer.

 

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From the new wires.......

 

LME 3-month copper rallies to $3,300/ton resistance, then

eases to $3,295, up around $20 from late kerb close. Sydney trader says rally

comes after earthquake rattles northern Chile, major producer of red metal.

"Everyone says there could be a mine that's hurt or something like that, so they

cover their shorts." Quake, with reported preliminary magnitude of 5.6, said

felt at Chuquicamata, world's largest open pit copper mine. Trader says copper

will be well supported until news filters from quake zone. Asian markets for

other metals in complex mute, says trader.

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