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A Million Tons of Copper Is on the Way: It May Not Be Enough

By Laura Millan Lombrana and Jack Farchy

April 8, 2019, 9:00 AM GMT+10 Updated on April 9, 2019, 12:52 AM GMT+10

Analysts at industry event this week are in bullish spirits

CRU Group sees copper deficit at 270,000 metric tons by 2023

 

Giant mines currently under construction will churn out an additional 1 million tons of copper through 2023, but that wonâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢t be enough to fully close an expected gap between supply and demand in the next few years.

 

Industry analysts and executives descending on Santiago this week for the Cesco conference, one of the industryâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s biggest events, are in bullish spirits: a key indicator of the market for semi-processed copper ore -- known as concentrates -- is pointing to the tightest market in more than five years, and banks and brokers such as Morgan Stanley and Macquarie Group Ltd. rank the metal as one of their top picks.

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“We are looking at a classic resource cycle,âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ said Colin Hamilton, managing editor for commodities at BMO Capital Markets. âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“No one has copper coming now, when it is needed, but everyone has projects coming 2022-2023 âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“- potentially after weâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢ve had to drive some substitution.âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...y-not-be-enough

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At least 41 artisanal miners killed in Glencoreâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s Congo mine collapse

Reuters | June 27, 2019 | 9:08 am Top Companies Africa Cobalt Copper

https://www.mining.com/web/at-least-36-kill...-mine-in-congo/

 

Glencore shares fall after DRC mine collapse

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An eight-year legal fight over an old BHP copper discovery culminated on Saturday when a World Bank tribunal ruled that Pakistan must pay Tethyan Copper Company Pty Ltd damages worth $US5.84 billion ($8.3 billion)

 

Roughly $1bil per each year of the legal stoush! Lucky stiffs :biggrin: BHP and Mincor missed out big time

 

Perth-based Tethyan was once ASX-listed, and remains incorporated and domiciled through the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

 

BHP largely exited Tethyan when it struck a joint venture agreement with ASX-listed Mincor in 2000.

 

Mincor demerged Tethyan in 2003, at which time it became an ASX-listed company for three years until it was acquired by multinational miner Antofagasta.

 

Tethyan is now owned by Antofagasta and Canada's Barrick Gold, and the current owners have inherited a legal agreement over Reko Diq that was struck between BHP and the Balochistan Government in 1993, known as the ''Chagai Hills Exploration Joint Venture Agreement''.

read more - https://www.afr.com/business/mining/austral...20190714-p526zz

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Mining and commodities giant Glencore (LON:GLEN) warned on Wednesday that it would take a $350 million hit when reporting first-half earnings next week, due to its African copper business failing to meet expected operational performance and an ongoing slump in cobalt prices.

 

The Swiss company said that setbacks at its mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia caused copper production to fall 5% to 663,000 tonnes in the six months leading up to June.

 

Production was also affected by the recent closure of two âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“uneconomicâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ shafts at its Mopani Copper Mines business in Zambia and a landslide at a copper and cobalt mine in Congo, run by its subsidiary Katanga Mining, which killed more than 40 illegal miners.

 

As a result, Glencore signalled it is likely to cut the target for copper production this year, adding that it would reveal a detailed turnaround plan for the division next week.

read more - https://www.mining.com/glencore-warns-of-35...lt-prices-rout/

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Peru is the worldâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s second-largest copper producer. - the following protests may impact supply

 

LIMA (Reuters) - Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra on Sunday authorized the army to maintain order at a key mining port, a day before an expected new round of protests against Southern Copper Corpâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s $1.4-billion proposed Tia Maria mine.

 

Matarani is used by major copper miners such as Cerro Verde, Antapaccay de Glencore and Constancia de Hudbay, according to the private Peruvian Association of Maritime Agents.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-sou...t-idUSKCN1UU0OJ

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The $$ impact from previous post now evident

Protests halt top copper mines in Peru from shipping, cut off supplies

Reuters | August 8, 2019

Anti-mining protests in Peru have held up about $400 million in copper exports from some of the countryâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s top mines and blocked supplies from reaching their operations for nearly three weeks, the manager of port operator Tisur said on Thursday.

 

Four copper mines âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Freeport-McMoRan Incâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s Cerro Verde deposit, MMG Ltdâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s Las Bambas, Glencore PLCâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s Antapaccay and Hudbay Mineralâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s Constancia âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ have been unable to ship copper concentrates from Matarani to destinations in Asia and Europe since July 18, said Gabriel Monge, manager of port operator Terminal Internacional del Sur (Tisur).

 

Last year, the four mines âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ led by the countryâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s top producer, Cerro Verde âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ churned out about 1.2 million tonnes, or about half of total copper output from Peru, the worldâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s No. 2 supplier.

https://www.mining.com/web/protests-halt-to...t-off-supplies/

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Glencore cuts copper guidance, to halt some Congo operations

Cecilia Jamasmie | October 25, 2019 |

Miner and commodities trader Glencore (LON:GLEN) reported on Friday a 4% fall in copper output so far this year and cut 2019 guidance as it readies to halt some operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

 

The Switzerland-based company said that full-year copper production, excluding output from its African mines, will be around 1.010 million tonnes. Guidance for its copper operations in DRC and Zambia was around 375,000 tonnes, making a total of just under 1.4 million tonnes versus the 1.45 million previously anticipated.

read more - https://www.mining.com/glencore-cuts-copper...ngo-operations/

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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/11/01/cop...-market-update/

Conclusion

 

In the copper market at present, speculators are very much focused on the here and the now. Fears over trade, economic growth and political instability, have taken centre stage for the time being. These concerns have led to pessimism and lower levels of investor interest generally in the copper sector. However as we know, things can change very quickly. Investor sentiment can change rapidly, particularly if a trade deal between the US and China can be reached.

 

From a bigger picture perspective, the outlook for copper remains positive. There are big question marks over the supply-sideâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s capacity to meet burgeoning demand. Of course, higher prices will ultimately flush out new sources of supply, but at the present time flat prices are hampering the development of new supply. Current circumstances have the potential to delay the onset of new copper mines, thus making the supply gap even worse.

 

For savvy investors, now is likely an appropriate time to be evaluating copper equities.

- Gavin Wendt

 

... interesting graphs on supply/ demand and inventories

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US payrolls light fire under copper price

Frik Els | December 6, 2019

The price of copper surged on Friday after reports showed the US economy is in robust health on the back of strong payroll numbers âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ the best reading since January âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ and progress is being made in trade talks with China.

 

Trade worries have dogged copper price bulls for the better part of a year, and China is vital to overall demand for the metal widely used in the manufacturing, construction, transportation and electricity sectors.

 

In afternoon trading in New York, copper for delivery in March continued to climb âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ hitting $2.7535 a pound ($6,070 a tonne), up 3.4% on the day and the highest since July.

 

The highest forecast for the average price in Q4 2020 is $7,000 per tonne ($3.17/lb) from Goldman Sachs (+16.7% from current price), while five investment banks and research firms, including JP Morgan and Commerzbank, see copper falling back below $6,000 a tonne. The median forecast for Q4 2020 is $6,255.

read more - https://www.mining.com/us-payrolls-light-fi...r-copper-price/

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