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Copper keeps increasing internationally, and has certainly broken out of its channel.

Recently closed at US 1.4848 /lb


Copper ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ Oct 08, 14:47

Bid/Ask 1.4848 - 1.4893

Change 0.0000 0.00%

Low/High 1.4848 - 1.4893




Codelco strike fuels copper spurt


London, Oct. 8 (Bloomberg): Copper prices rose to a 15-year high in London as a strike shut a smelter owned by ChileÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Codelco, the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s biggest producer, threatening to worsen this yearÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s shortfall in global supplies.


The Chuquicamata Smelter, run by the Codelco Norte division, was closed and a strike by supervisors will last until a new labour agreement is reached, union official Mario Sepulveda said.


Copper, used by companies such as Nexans SA to make electrical wiring, has climbed 14 per cent since September 3 amid dwindling inventories.


Copper for delivery in three months reached $3,085 a metric tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the highest since March 13, 1989.


Commodity prices are at the highest in two decades as oil and metals producers struggle to expand output. Barclays Capital estimates that hedge funds, investment vehicles for the wealthy, account for about half of LME trading, attracted by higher returns than from stocks and bonds.

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In reply to: thekiwi on Monday 11/10/04 07:39am

the kiwi,

strikes in Chile have been comparatively short lived over the past decade. On this basis they should be back at work within the next week or so-however it does highlight the fragile nature of the supply side in the copper market.

There are only a few mines of any significance due to come onstream in the next five years (including the mighty OX in Sepon), against a backdrop of increasing global demand-not just China !,coupled with a decline in the average grade of the world's major mines.

The copper price could expect further gains this week, with a pause when the Chileans pick up their shovels again, then another run up pre Xmas (?).

Of course if the boys go against the trend and stay out on strike, well, it is the world's biggest copper producer and there is b*gger all in the warehouses =pick your price between US$1.50 and US$2.00 lb!!!


(Be very agile if you want to short BHP/RIO/WMR/OXR in the meantime )

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Metals Stocks Sink As Copper Plunges

10.13.2004, 05:42 PM


Metal stocks sunk Wednesday, as mining companies were downgraded, copper prices crashed after hitting a 15-year high last week, and metal futures followed gold prices, which hit a two-week low on a strengthening dollar.


Shares of Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. fell more than 8 percent to $36.40 on the New York Stock Exchange after Prudential Financial lowered the mining company's rating to "Neutral Weight" from "Overweight" and cut its target price to $44 from $49 per share. Prudential analysts explained that gross margins at the company's Atlantic Copper producer in Spain may be lower than expected, and mining royalties are likely to be higher.


Copper miner Phelps Dodge Corp. shares fell more than 9 percent to close at $83.10 on the NYSE after Prudential's analysts lowered their price target to $156 from $161.


"Metal prices have been on quite a tear in the past three to four weeks, and they became overextended," said Ron Coll, an analyst with Jennings Capital in Toronto, adding that the recent price drops were largely driven by investor speculation. "There is an element of trader speculation, not just old-fashioned supply and demand," he said.


However, the International Copper Study Group on Tuesday had warned that China consumed 20 percent less copper in July, and metals giant BHP Billiton PLC on Wednesday announced that worldwide supply of copper will outpace demand in the second half of 2005.


December copper futures fell 16 cents to close at $1.288 per pound after hitting $1.27 earlier in the day on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper hit a 15-year high of $1.48 per pound Friday. Also on the Comex, December gold futures fell $2 to $414.60 per ounce after hitting $410.80 early in the day.


On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper futures fell 9 percent Wednesday - the largest one-day drop since May 1996 when scandal shocked the market. In after-hours trade, copper fell further to a five-week low of $2,722.50 per ton.


Also on the London exchange, three-month nickel futures closed down 16 percent, hitting a thirteen-week low of $13,000 per ton, and lead, zinc and tin finished the day down 5 percent to 7 percent.


Other stock decliners in the sector include Inco Ltd., whose shares fell nearly 6 percent to close at $35.26 on the NYSE after UBS on Wednesday downgraded the Canadian nickel miner to "Reduce" from "Neutral," and Prudential on Tuesday reduced the stock to "Underweight" from "Neutral Weight."


Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. shares closed down 15 cents, or almost 3 percent to $4.99 on the American Stock Exchange.


Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. saw shares decline $1, or 3 percent, to $32.19 on the NYSE, and BHP Billiton shares sank $1.04, or almost 5 percent, to $20.40 on the NYSE

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In reply to: tastarga on Thursday 14/10/04 09:35am

It is LME week in London, Barclays gave their view on the copper outlook which was bullish but at slightly lower prices ((US1.20 lb plus)-note their track record is far from perfect!

All the nasty metal traders and hedge funds are swanning around London's West End trying to work out ways of robbing the unsuspecting public-hey! lets short the sh!t out of the market when no-one was awake to it , then recover the position once the computer traders have thumped it down a bit.

Nice one boys.

It will stuff the resources sharemarket here for the next few days.


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Slow China Growth Sparks Selloff




NEW YORK, Oct 17, 2004 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Concerns about slowing growth in China sparked a selloff in commodities futures this past week, but some Wall Street watchers remain bullish about companies that produce what's called "stuff" - goods like oil, metals and timber.


Many analysts believe oil prices are overextended, and speculation is likely to keep other raw materials volatile for the near future, as well; in a vivid illustration of this, copper hit a 15-year high on Wednesday only to tumble to a five-week low on Thursday. But with global demand generally on the rise, dividend-paying equities linked to commodities still hold a great deal of appeal for professional investors.


"If you look at the companies that produce industrial commodities, there is some fundamental support underneath them that could lead to continued increases in stock prices," said Kenneth McCarthy, chief economist with vFinance Investments, Inc. "So even though the underlying commodities may jump around a lot, the basic trend is toward higher prices, in both commodities and the companies that produce them."


Reports out of China this week showed a slower rate of growth, in part due to the Chinese government's ongoing efforts to rein in its economy's feverish pace to more sustainable levels through higher interest rates. That spooked commodities traders, but some analysts say they reacted more in anticipation of a possible hard landing than because of an actual slowdown.


Even if China does suffer a painful decline, resulting in an overall slowing of global demand, some argue it wouldn't be enough to halt the momentum of the commodities market. It would take a significant slowdown in global demand and a sharp increase in supply to cause prices to drop substantially. So for investors who don't believe the recent surge in oil is enough to knock the global economy into recession, all this price volatility could create some buying opportunities.


"Just like you bought the dips in the tech space in the '90s, in the secular (long-term) bull market in tangible assets, while you would go through periodic corrections and selling squalls, you buy the dips," said Jeffrey D. Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates. "I'd be more sensitive about the prices I paid for individual securities. But buying the flop tends to take the price risk out to some degree."


Saut, who has focused part of his portfolio on commodities-linked equities, or "stuff stocks," for the better part of three years, sees great opportunities to capture gains in the years ahead as countries across Asia develop into more industrialized economies.


"It sounds real simplistic, but China, as they make the transition, is going to build a lot of McDonald's hamburger shops," Saut reasons. "And you can't build a hamburger shop without stainless steel counters. And you can't make stainless steel without nickel. It can't be done."


Rather than investing in China directly, Saut buys dividend-paying stocks or preferred convertible bonds of companies that make the stuff China and other developing nations will need to grow. He likes yields indexed to real assets - coal, timber, precious metals and base metals like iron ore and nickel.


"I think all those things are in a secular bull market, and I think it has years to the upside," Saut said. "I remain a steadfast bull on stuff."


Saut's "stuff" strategy extends to anything where he foresees a shortage. Producers of fertilizers and grain are on his radar, as are companies that build and maintain water treatment facilities and desalinization plants, since many parts of the developing world lack potable water.


"The world runs on oil and water," Saut said. "I don't hear anyone talking about water, but it's a very important thing. It's a huge problem. You watch."


For small investors who are disinclined to do the research necessary to find and track good stuff stocks, there are a number of mutual and exchange traded funds that hold tangible assets. You can get direct exposure to raw materials through PIMCO Commodity RealReturn Strategy or the Oppenheimer Real Asset fund.


Since commodities and commodity-based investments are inherently risky due to the degree of speculation in the market, how much of your portfolio you devote to securities linked to raw materials depends on your time horizon and appetite for risk. If you are a long-term investor with a strong stomach, it may be worth your consideration.


"I think that you have to be careful in commodities. There is a lot of speculation in the actual physical commodities, which you see reflected in the price movements," said McCarthy, of vFinance. "That said, the fundamentals do support continued high prices ... even in a general environment of flat stock prices."

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Copper Rises as Strikes at Grupo Mexico May Cut Global Supply


Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices in New York rose for the second session in three as workers walked off the job at two Mexican mines owned by Grupo Mexico, the world's third-biggest copper producer.


An Oct. 15 strike by miners at the Cananea mine spread yesterday to the La Caridad mine, company spokesman Juan Rebolledo said. The two mines produce about 320,000 metric tons a year, a third of Grupo Mexico's total. Copper prices have gained 45 percent in the past year as growth in China, the world's biggest copper buyer, contributed to a supply deficit.


``Strikes are important because they just add to the perception that supplies are tight,'' said Donald Selkin, director of research at Joseph Stevens & Co., a New York brokerage.


Copper futures for December delivery rose 1.3 cents, or 1 percent, to $1.297 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a specific price, quantity and date.


Copper for delivery in three months gained $16 to $2,810 a metric ton ($1.274 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange. The metal rose above the 100-day moving average of $2,778, triggering buying by commodity funds that track charts and historical price trends, said Tony Nappi, a trader at Triland USA Inc. in New York.


Prices on the Comex still have dropped 12 percent from a 15- year high of $1.482 a pound on Oct. 8. The decline that started last week was because of ``technical trading,'' Richard Adkerson, chief executive of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., said on a conference call with investors and analysts.


`Tight Supply'


Demand in China and the U.S., the world's second-biggest buyer, will ``determine where the market rests,'' Adkerson said. ``We do have an industry that today is characterized by a very tight supply situation, inventories that are very low and demand that continues to be strong.''


Freeport said its third-quarter copper production fell to 256,400 pounds from 341,200 pounds a year earlier, as miners worked in areas of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia that contained less metal.


Unexpected ``supply interruptions could create a very interesting situation'' for prices, Adkerson said, citing a surge in crude-oil prices after hurricanes disrupted output in the Gulf of Mexico.


``We feel very good about the copper market,'' Adkerson said.


Grasberg is the world's second-biggest copper mine. Chile's state-owned Codelco is the world's biggest copper producer by 2003 output, followed by Phoenix-based Phelps Dodge Corp.


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World's copper output must rise as Chile's dips, says BHP

October 19, 2004


By Matthew Craze


London - Global copper production would need to rise by about 250 000 tons a year to meet demand as output growth slowed in Chile, the world's largest supplier, according to BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company.


Diego Hernandez, the president of BHP Billiton's base metals division, said: "You wonder where the copper will come from. We are looking everywhere."


Copper, which is used mostly in electrical wiring and cables, surged to a 15-year high on October 8 as demand, led by China, outpaced production from mines and scrapyards and as inventories plummeted.


Hernandez said mining companies would not catch up with demand until the second half of 2005.


Melbourne-based BHP Billiton is spending $20 million (R129 million) this year on copper exploration, some with smaller companies in South America, Africa and Asia.


It is also working with Chile's state-owned Codelco to develop a way to unlock copper from the country's copper sulphide reserves.


BHP Billiton earned a record $2.04 billion in the six months to June, benefiting from rising prices for oil, coal and metals.


"It's a good time to invest," said Hernandez, who is based in Santiago. He previously worked in Chile for Anglo American, the world's second-biggest mining company, and oversaw construction of the first copper mine in the Amazon jungle for Vale do Rio Doce, Latin America's biggest mining company.



A 3 percent annual increase in demand would require an additional 150 000 tons of copper a year, Hernandez said.


Another 100 000 tons a year would be needed to make up for a fall in the amount of copper found in ore from existing mines, he said.


The International Copper Study Group said recently that the gap between mine output and demand would shrink next year to 220 000 tons from 701 000 tons as production increased 7.3 percent to 17.2 million tons.


BHP Billiton owns 57.5 percent of Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, in Chile's Atacama Desert. Construction of the $1 billion Spence project nearby would lift BHP Billiton's copper output to 1.4 million tons a year by 2008, rivalling Codelco as the biggest producer.


"Chile will have difficulties keeping its market share," Hernandez said. Two decades of exploration in the country's northern Pampas area had reduced the likelihood of the discovery of a large copper deposit.


Peru, Chile's neighbour, was a leading area for growth, Hernandez said.

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