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mminion

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Hi Draughtsman,

Looking at the trading in recent days, I have a feeling in my gut that we will see some sort of action soon (fingers crossed).

It might just be wishful thinking (or window dressing), but the buyers seem to be building & the volume for sale reducing.

I think we could be taxiing (is that correct spelling?) to the runway.. :wub:

 

Cheers

Dr_Dazmo

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Dr Daz, whatever the FAA (US) may decree to be acceptable, you can guarantee that CASA (AUS) will determine it will not be good enough,

and on past experience, they will ground all pipers until the wigs are removed.

CASA has effectively reduced to zero the value of many of the older Cessna fleet here in Oz thanks to their unique(to OZ) SIDS program.

Given that the average age of our fleet in OZ is nearly 35 years, most of the aircraft are valued at under $60,000.

For many owners, the prohibitive cost of maintenance means the aircraft will be scrapped or left in Hangars like so many of thye Cessna Single Engine planes now.

In 2015, 20 percent of the OZ fleet did not fly a single hour.

With this sort of maintenance issues, that will figure is bound to increase.

Doubt that SMN will find its pot of gold in Aviation.

As someone once said, "the only way to make a small fortune inn Aviation, is to start with a big one".

Mick

 

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Hi All,

I wonder if the rising jet fuel price increases the incentive to reduce costs elsewhere, i.e, maintenance inspections?

 

Cheers

Dr_Dazmo

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/20/airlines-fa...approaches.html

Airlines get higher fuel bills just as busy summer flying season approaches

  • Jet-fuel prices have gained around 60 percent over the past year.
  • Fuel is generally airlines' second-biggest expense after labor costs.
  • Summer is the busiest season for U.S. airlines.
More travelers are packing airplanes, but it's getting more expensive to fly them.

 

Jet-fuel prices have climbed 15 percent this year, and have surged around 60 percent over the past year, according to S&P Global Platts, presenting airlines with a growing fuel bill just before the summer travel rush, the busiest time of year.

 

Airlines have a few options to handle the spike in their biggest expense after labor: cut service or raise fares. That amounts to a game of chicken. Airlines don't want to risk losing customers to a competitor with better fares or a more robust schedule.

 

"I envision this like a high school dance," Jamie Baker, senior airline analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase. "It's always tricky to go first."

 

Making the wrong choices could risk further declines in the sector. The NYSE Arca Airline Index is down nearly 9 percent this year, while the S&P 500 is up 1.5 percent. Investors have shown they will punish airlines over even the possibility of an airfare war.

 

American Airlines, the world's largest carrier, trimmed its 2018 profit forecast last month, as jet fuel costs rose. CEO Doug Parker last month told investors that fares would likely rise because of the increase in fuel prices.

 

Airlines set prices and sell tickets often months in advance, so passengers may not be paying for the more expensive fuel, at least just yet.

 

Airfare during the peak summer travel season is looking cheaper than last year, according to a recent report from fare-prediction app Hopper. A trip to Europe is about $1,019, a 9 percent drop from summer 2017, while a roundtrip domestic flight is about $347, around 6 percent less than a year ago, the report said.

 

What comes with a ticket has changed this year though. Delta and American are taking their no-frills basic economy tickets international and will be charging for checked luggage for some of the cheapest coach-class tickets.

 

American and some of its competitors have announced some service changes, cutting some under-performing routes. For example, American is cutting a Chicago-Beijing flight and plans to drop some South American routes.

 

"Those decisions are probably easier to make in this fuel environment," American Chief Financial Officer Derek Kerr said at an industry conference last week.

 

Kerr and his counterpart at Delta Air Lines said they would look at possible service cuts in the fall after the busy summer travel season, which they each forecast would be strong.

 

Airlines can't simply walk away during the most important season of the year. "You can't tell passengers: 'We're not going to fly to Rome,' " said J.P. Morgan's Baker.

 

Delta Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said one thing on Delta's side is an worldwide increase in revenue that the carrier generates per seat it flies a mile, a key industry metric.

 

That "gives us comfort that we've been able to pass that through," Jacobson said at the conference. That's good news for airlines but perhaps not for consumers.

 

Carriers are hesitant not to cut back on service, particularly as low-cost carriers expand their international service.

 

Airlines have increased capacity between the U.S. and abroad 4.3 percent in the May-July period from a year earlier, according to Planestats.com, a site of consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

 

A strong economy that has helped fuel both leisure travel demand and more lucrative business travel as so far provided cover.

 

U.S. airlines' net income peaked at a record $26 billion in 2015, the year after oil prices started to crater. But even with more expensive fuel in 2017, U.S. carriers' brought in about $17 billion last year, a 9 percent rise from 2016, according to the Department of Transportation.

 

"Fuel matters, but what matters more is demand," said Savanthi Syth, airline analyst at Raymond James.

 

U.S. and foreign airlines carried a record 965 million people last year, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. This past January and February, months that are general weaker for passenger traffic, airlines transported 4 percent more passengers than the first two months of 2017.

 

"How the overall economy does is going to influence demand for tickets," said Gary Leff, a travel-industry analyst and author of the View from the Wing blog.

 

 

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Hi All,Nice to see some green shoots today.Seems however that someone would like to maintain the status quo (around or below $1.00), but (upward) pressure is mounting.

I'm hopeful that in the near future we shall see some news to get the momentum building.Fingers crossed!

 

CheersDr_Dazmo

 

 

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Interesting article, especially in relation to ongoing monitoring (and CVM).

CheersDr_Dazmo

https://www.thenational.ae/business/aviation/boeing-747s-take-unexpected-detour-on-way-to-the-scrapyard-1.734300

 

Boeing 747s take unexpected detour on way to the scrapyard

A funny thing happened to an older generation of Boeing 47 jumbo jets on their way to dusty oblivion in desert parking lots.

 

Instead of being scrapped, the humpbacked planes are back in demand as workhorses of global shipping. Booming trade is stoking the need for big, long-range jets to haul time-sensitive goods, from Apple iPhones made in China to fresh flowers grown in Latin America.

 

Interest in BoeingÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s 747-400 freighter family was already rebounding last year, even as Delta Air Lines and United Continental hosted nostalgic farewell tours to mark the end of US passenger service on the four-engine behemoth nicknamed the ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Queen of the Skies.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ With BoeingÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s factory-fresh models sold out through 2021, cargo carriers are snapping up jumbo freighters that were built from 1993 to 2009 - if they can find them.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ItÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s tightened up, thatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s for sure,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ said William Flynn, chief executive of Atlas Air Worldwide, the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s largest operator of jumbo freighters. The lessor is in the process of adding six 747-400 freighters to its fleet. ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ThereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s just a finite number of aircraft,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ he said.

 

Demand is strongest for used 747s originally built as freighters, since they have hinged noses that flip open to load oversize cargo such as oil-drilling equipment. Lease rates have rebounded for the aircraft, while the number of stored models has shrunk to the point where almost every airworthy plane is spoken for, according to George Dimitroff, head of valuations for Flight Ascend Consultancy.

 

The resurgence is even starting to extend to cargo-haulers converted from passenger jumbos, which are heavier and can load only via doors carved into the side. Once written off as dead, the converted 747 freighters have shown new life over the last nine months, Mr Dimitroff said. While itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s not quite a comeback, lease rates have climbed for older models.

 

One sign of the renewed interest: ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“WeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢re seeing aircraft get D-checks that were in storage for a long time that we thought were going to be parted-out,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ he said, using an industry term for heavy maintenance. The cost, typically more than $3 million (Dh11m) a plane, is an indication theyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll fly again, instead of being chopped up.

 

To be sure, the revival involves a small subset of the 1,544 jumbos that have flown away from BoeingÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Seattle-area factory since the four-engine 747 debuted in 1970. ThereÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s no sign of a similar resurgence for brand-new passenger versions of the 747-8, or AirbusÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ A380 superjumbo.

 

A global trade war could snuff interest in the older freighters. So would a big increase in oil prices.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“If we get to $90 a barrel, itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s going to start getting really ugly for the four-engine aircraft again,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ said Brian Postel, vice president for aircraft acquisition at Unical Aviation, a California-based supplier of aircraft parts and maintenance. A US benchmark exceeded $70 a barrel this month for the first time since 2014.

 

Still, the recent trend reverses the steady stream of 747s that had headed to boneyards this decade. Airlines switched long-range flying to more economical twin-engine models, and Boeing last year dropped the 747 from its long-term forecast for passenger planes. Package carriers parked early-build freighters amid whipsawing fuel prices and a prolonged air-cargo slump.

 

The total number of permanently retired or scrapped Boeing jumbos more than doubled, from 442 in 2010 to 890 this year, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis of Flight Ascend data.

 

 

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