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CUV - CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED


colaiscute

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I'm invested in both CUV and SPL (and a couple more AUS biotechs more recently). Very different beasts although there are similarities in the time to get to market and the actual timing of FDA approvals (SPL still negotiating!!).

SPL well set up and experienced in the viral field, already with vivagel on the market and looking towards eyedrop anti-viral. I think CUV have a much better market approach and going alone gives them much better profits. I hope CUV focus on what they are doing and not be distracted.

SPL on the other hand could expand rapidly into gels, wipes impregnated gloves etc all of which will be in continued high demand even when the peak of the virus is over. There will be, unfortunately, potential for more new viruses in the futures and hearing from an expert on the business channel the other day, vaccines and anti-virals are somewhat difficult to develop and produce. From this perspective, if SPL do have an effective anti viral against co-vid19 then they should do very well into the future on that alone. They are also well into their partnership with astrazenica on cancer treatments.

I'm happy with CUV's progress in the USA and whatever they achieve during this time should give a great platform for next year.

I'd be happy to buy more of both at these levels. GLTA

 

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Congratulations CUV management - on target and on time.

 

Self distribution was the absolute smartest move for EPP. With COVID-19, the sales in the US will be down from what was expected for the fiscal year but on the upside the USDAUD price is $1.56 or in other words 1.56 multiple for every $1 sale. That at least is a small favour. 1.72 against the Euro. Time will tell whether the currency drop is enough to offset northern hemisphere lock down.

 

I do expect shorty mcshortpants to have another attack to cap price, but their position is looking untenable. I am guessing here but I would think mcshortpants has an overall market large short position and has over extended their risk margins limiting any particular attack vector. The pool of lend able securities is shrinking.

 

Now thats cash flow. Time to move onto future cash flow of the 2020 strategy.

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Like you LJS I have an interest in SPM along with a couple of other AUS biotechs one of which is Reece Pharmacies (ASX - RCE) who prior to the opening this morning went into a Trading Halt pending the release of an announcement relating to antiviral test results !! :blink:

 

Seems like it is all happening at the moment and by the way, I agree 100% with your comparisons regarding the benefits of CUV's approach of going it alone versus SPM's outsourcing.

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Is it possible weâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢re now living in a new Clinuvel world of under promise and over deliver?

I like what Iâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢m seeing so far in 2020.. price would be closer to $40, if it werenâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢t for COVID-19.

 

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the MT p3 trial wonâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢t start until 2021, if theyâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢re even for real. Lockdown restriction delays, and the follow on effect of attempting to trial a sun protection drug for 6 months over winter will be a waste of money...even if it works. They are 4-5 years behind, and will probably be burdened with further safety trials before they can file for approval. Theyâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢ve only treated a couple of hundred patients, CUV has treated 1500 plus with exceptional safety. And our drug can be easily controlled which is a big tick with regulators.

 

It would not surprise me if MT are shorting CUV though. Anecdotally their drug has some positive effects on EPP patients. I think theyâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢ve been milking it lately though, by posting scant details of an upcoming p3 trial on the APF website, which they know wonâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢t happen. What better way to increase the value of a short position in CUV? ....well played.

 

However, in reality they have not even released full results from their only p2 trial, and one of their safety trials has been ongoing for over12 months with enrolment/completion delays until October 2020.

 

No doubt one to watch, but at this pace CUV should have the EPP market fully enrolled, and be nearing approval for Vitiligo, before MT even think about selling to their first EPP patient.

 

Happy days!

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