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DJ OIL FUTURES:Crude Ends Down Amid Broad Energy Selloff

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Oil prices finished sharply lower Tuesday amid a broad

energy market selloff triggered by forecasts of warm temperatures and

expectations of continued growth in U.S. petroleum inventories.


Heating oil and natural gas futures led the way down, as traders priced in a

National Weather Service outlook calling for above-normal temperatures around

the natural gas-consuming Great Lakes region and along the heating

oil-dependent East Coast over the next week.


The mild weather outlook reinforced expectations that weekly government data

due out Wednesday will show a build in petroleum inventories, analysts said.


Analysts surveyed Monday by Dow Jones Newswires expect the data to show a

weekly build of 400,000 barrels in crude stocks, an increase of more than 1

million barrels in gasoline inventories, and a build of 1.3 million barrels in

distillate stocks, which include heating oil.


"Today's weather forecast sank the market," said Phil Flynn, a trader at

Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "The market was also getting ready for

tomorrow's inventory reports that could set the stage for the rest of the



At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for January delivery

dropped as low as $48.68 a barrel, down $1.08, before settling at 49.13 a

barrel, down 63 cents.


Nymex Natural gas futures came under selling pressure for a second straight

session, with the January contract losing 19.7 cents to $7.640 per million

British thermal units.


Petroleum products slipped into negative territory, with December heating oil

closing 5.10 cents lower at $1.3927 a gallon and December gasoline ending 3.89

cents lower at $1.2640 a gallon.


December products futures expired at the end of the day, the last trading

session of the month.


The selloff followed early gains triggered by concern about production

shut-ins in the North Sea.


Norway's Statoil ASA (STO) and U.S. based Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) shut in

between 240,000 barrels a day and 280,000 barrels a day in production on gas

leaks at separate fields over the weekend.


Neither company has been able to say definitely how long it will take it to

restore production to normal levels. The uncertainty caused traders to bid up

futures early in the session, but with natural gas and heating oil selling off,

"it was hard for crude to be be up," said Andy Lebow, senior vice president at

brokerage Man Financial in New York.



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DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Eases On Profit Taking


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York

Mercantile Exchange slipped more than $2.50 an ounce Tuesday on bullion bank

selling and speculative liquidation sparked by upbeat economic data and a brief

short-covering rally in the U.S. dollar versus the euro.


The most-active February contract (100 ounces each) settled $2.60 lower at

$453.20 per ounce.


February prices got off to a steady start around $455.00-$455.50 on initial

U.S. dollar weakness. But the contract came under pressure in the wake of the

London PM gold fixing shortly after 10 a.m. EST as the U.S. dollar pressed

higher against the euro on a short-covering rally.


The greenback rally was sparked by news that Chicago-area manufacturing in

November was better than expected, and gathered pace as oil prices eased from

recent highs. Remarks from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet

that signaled the bank wouldn't raise rates at its meeting Thursday also

boosted the U.S. currency, market watchers said.


The net effect of the stronger U.S. currency was to force dollar alternatives

such as gold lower through profit taking and bank selling. February gold

futures duly retreated to the $450 mark shortly after 11 a.m. EST.


Some fund buying interest was restored over the final two hours of trading to

leave February futures above $453 by the close. But dealers agreed that more

turbulent price action defined by spurts of profit taking and fund bargain

hunting could be seen in the days ahead.


Downside targets for February futures include $448, $446 and $444-$445 on any

further profit taking-led retreats, they added.


To the upside, resistance is expected at $457-$458 and then at $460.


March silver moved in line with gold and settled 4.8 cents lower at $7.777

after having briefly nosed to $7.87 and seven-month highs early. More gold

tracking is expected by silver in the days ahead, with the $7.75, $7.72 and

$7.70 levels cited as potential retreat points.


Nymex January platinum ignored the downdraft seen elsewhere and edged to

seven-day highs of $873.80 amid thin trade. Dealers said speculators were the

instigators behind the move, prompted primarily by the U.S. dollar's weakness

against the yen.


More upside probes toward $875 or $880 have been allowed for over the coming

days, although further slippage in gold is expected to dampen sentiment

somewhat across the complex.


March palladium moved more in line with gold and eased slightly to record its

lowest close since Nov. 3 at $213.10 an ounce.




London PM Gold Fix: $453.40 Tuesday, $451.25 Monday

U.S. spot gold 1400 ET: $450.95, down $1.50 from Open;

Range: $447.85-454.25

Feb gold (RGCG05) $453.20, down $2.60; Range: $450.00-


Mar silver (RSIH05) $7.777, down $0.048; Range: $7.710-


Jan platinum (RPLF05) $872.30, up $6.90; Range: $865.00-


Mar palladium (RPAH05) $213.10; down $0.65; Range: $212.50-



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OIL FUTURES: Crude In NY Falls;Inventories Beat Mkt Views

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Oil prices fell more than a dollar Wednesday in New

York, after weekly inventory data revealed greater-than-expected growth in U.S.

inventories of crude oil and refined products.


Heating oil futures led the decline in early trade on the New York Mercantile

Exchange, as government and industry data showed at least double the increase

analysts had expected.


Commercial distillate inventories leapt 2.3 million barrels to 117.9 million

barrels in the week ended Nov. 26, bringing them back into the average range

for this time of year, according to the federal Energy Information



It was the second weekly build in a row, indicating the weeks of declines set

off by Hurricane Ivan's disruptions to Gulf Coast refineries may be at an end.

The failure of inventories to build had raised concerns about supplies of

heating fuels ahead of winter. Heating oil stocks rose 1 million barrels to

49.9 million barrels last week, the EIA said.


"Seeing the threat of winter tightness dissipate might quickly result in a $4

to $5 break in crude oil prices," said Mike Fitzpatrick, an energy broker for

Fimat USA Inc. in New York.


Even with the gains, the EIA has said winter fuel inventories have a long way

to go before reaching the average level for this time of year and warned this

week prices could move higher when colder weather arrives. The EIA is the

statistics arm of the U.S. Department of Energy.


Despite an increase in refinery runs, crude oil inventories climbed for a

tenth straight week.


Nymex light, sweet crude futures for January fell as much as $1.33 to $47.80

a barrel following the data. Analysts said a price break below that level -

last week's low - likely would trigger a heavy selloff.


In London, January Brent crude oil futures fell as much as $1.46 to $44.05 a

barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.


January heating oil futures on the Nymex dropped as much as 4.33 cents to

$1.3750 a gallon in early trade, while gasoline futures for the same month fell

as much as 3.96 cents to $1.2450.



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SnP500 ..... handy tool for techies ..... http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif


Hi folks,


About 3 or 4 times every year, we can use

a simple astrotool to determine critical

pivot levels, in the markets we trade.


You may remember that last time we used

this tool on the SnP500, it came in quite

accurately, around 1103.


This time, we will use 1180 as the reference

point in price range, on 01 December 2004.


To confirm this as a critical pivot level,

we will be looking for the price to transit

across 1180, on the following dates:


17-20 December and 07012004


happy trading all








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In reply to: acouch on Thursday 02/12/04 08:08am

DJ OIL FUTURES:Crude Ends Near $43 On OPEC, Supply Glitches


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures in New York settled near $43 a barrel

Monday, amid increased expectations that OPEC may tighten the spigots on oil

production at its meeting this week in Cairo.


A deadly strike on a U.S. consulate in oil-rich Saudi Arabia and some supply

disruptions in Nigeria and Iraq supplemented the gains, but traders pointed to

Friday's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as the

main focus.


"The key thing is that the second quarter of every year is the lowest

consumption quarter, so I definitely think OPEC will announce a production cut

ahead of that," said Jacques Rosseau, senior vice president and energy analyst

at Friedman Billings Ramsey in Arlington, Va.


OPEC oil ministers have increasingly voiced concern about a global supply

glut and the need to put a floor under oil futures prices, which fell nearly $7

a barrel last week.


An OPEC production-cut announcement may come as soon as this week, but likely

won't take effect until next year, since the fourth quarter usually brings the

world's highest oil-consumption rates, Rosseau said.


"I think OPEC will wait a little bit and watch for swings in the winter

weather," he added.


As in past weeks, U.S. petroleum-inventory data also will play an important

role in the direction of oil prices, analysts said. In particular, prices could

tumble again if commercial heating oil stocks keep rising, they said.


Benchmark light, sweet crude oil futures for January rose 44 cents to settle

at $42.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The February and March

contracts topped $43 a barrel, settling at $43.24 and $43.29, respectively.


In London, Brent crude for January rose 29 cents to settle at $39.65 a barrel

on the International Petroleum Exchange.


Nymex refined-product futures also rose, with January heating oil settling at

$1.2497 a gallon, up 1.38 cents. The February contract rose 1.74 cents to

settle at $1.2558 a gallon.


Gasoline for January fell 53 points to settle at $1.1296 a gallon. Like

crude, the February and March contracts settled higher at $1.1551 and $1.1710.



On the IPE, December gasoil settled at $378.00 a metric ton, up $6.75.



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DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Down As Dlr Holds Steady


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York

Mercantile Exchange ended nearly $2 lower Monday as the U.S. dollar's ability

to fend off further weakness against its rivals spurred profit taking in

dollar-alternatives such as gold.


The most-active February contract (100 oz. each) settled $1.90 lower at

$455.90 per ounce.


Although lower on the opening, February prices initially managed to hold

fairly steady in the face of early fund and bullion bank selling and forged a

$455.00-456.50 channel over the first 90 minutes of trading.


But the safe-haven buying spurred by news of terrorist bombings in Spain and

which propped prices up early passed by 10 a.m. EST (1500 GMT) to pave the way

lower for February futures later in the session.


Pre-placed stop-loss sell orders also added pressure and helped dunk February

futures to the $452.70 intraday low by 10:25 a.m. EST.


However, follow-through selling interest proved light, while light

bargain-hunter interest remained intact to limit gold's spate of weakness and

turn prices back above the $455 level by settlement.


Dealers agreed that more spurts of profit taking are likely to emerge early

in each of the coming trading days unless the U.S. dollar resumes its



However, a reluctance by short-term players to establish sustained short

positions in the market due to terrorism fears and the bleak outlook for the

U.S. dollar is expected to spur regular bouts of short covering late in the



As a result, more price volatility is widely expected over the coming days,

especially as conditions become increasingly thin as the holiday season



Support for February gold is expected from $452, while resistance is expected

around $457, $458 and $460.


March silver moved in line with gold and sank from early highs around $8.05

to a 7.935 low by mid-morning. Some light bargain hunting and short covering

emerged late to lift March values above $8 again toward the end of the session,

but renewed bullion bank sales ensured a sub-$8 close.


A $7.82-$8.10 channel is seen prevailing over the short term.


Nymex January platinum and March palladium shuffled mainly sideways Monday in

very quiet trade as most market participants focused on the tone of trade



However, both managed to creep gently higher over the course of the day as

the bullion bank and fund selling noted in gold and silver steered clear of the

Platinum Group Metals Monday.


Both metals are seen heading generally sideways over the near term.


Settlements: London PM Gold Fix: $453.05 Monday, $448.65 Friday U.S. spot gold

1410 ET: $453.95, down $2.10 from Open; Range: $450.65-456.80 Feb gold (RGCG05)

$455.90, down $1.90; Range: $452.70-456.70 Mar silver (RSIH05) $7.963, down

$0.080; Range: $7.935-8.050 Jan platinum (RPLF05) $877.70, up $2.90; Range:

$870.10-878.00 Mar palladium (RPAH05) $211.80; up $5.05; Range: $205.50-212.50




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