Futures

[Guest rosie]

In reply to: acouch on Monday 22/11/04 09:59pm

Hi Adriane,

 

Looks like it's not possible, ah well, no big deal really.

 

Hello Yogie, how's the west going?

 

Ian.

[acouch]

In reply to: acouch on Tuesday 23/11/04 08:25am

DJ Market Special: Comex Gold Clawing Toward $450/Ounce

 

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Comex gold futures are honing in on the psychologically

significant $450-per-ounce level Wednesday in light conditions as speculator

and trade players edge prices higher against a backdrop of continued U.S.

dollar weakness.

 

The U.S. currency plumbed fresh lows against the euro Wednesday and nine-year

lows on the U.S. Dollar Index as international investors continued to stream

out of the greenback.

 

Gold's countercyclical tendencies make it an attractive destination for some

of those funds, especially as bullion prices have recently scaled levels not

seen in 16 years.

 

However, good levels of pre-U.S. long weekend profit taking and bullion bank

selling are expected at the $450 mark to make the route higher tough to

negotiate over the short term.

 

At 9:20 a.m. EST December gold was quoted around $449.00-449.20 in light

two-way action, while on the spot market gold was quoted around $448.85-449.00.

 

 

 

[acouch]

In reply to: acouch on Thursday 25/11/04 08:14am

DJ OIL FUTURES: Crude Plunges $1, Rebounds On Inventory Reports

 

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Oil prices fell sharply after government data showed

U.S. inventories of distillate fuels grew for the first time in 10 weeks - but

then recovered some of those losses after the government reported U.S.

inventories of natural gas fell by more than expected.

 

The prevailing direction was still down, however. U.S. commercial stocks of

distillate fuels grew by 1 million barrels last week to 115.6 million barrels

as demand fell slightly, the federal Energy Information Administration

reported. The American Petroleum Institute, a trade group, reported an even

larger build of 1.824 million barrels in distillate fuels.

 

Although the heating oil component of distillate stocks showed a slight

decline in the EIA report, the overall increase in distillate fuels helped ease

concerns about tight winter supplies, analysts said.

 

"Any increase right now should be seen as helping consumers," said EIA

analyst Doug MacIntyre said. "We could continue to see distillate stocks

increase until cold weather hits in full force."

 

"It's the beginning of good news," said Jack Sullivan, executive director of

New England Fuel Institute. "It could very well be the start of a trend. You

have significant amounts of product being shipped from the Gulf Coast."

 

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, January light, sweet crude futures fell

as low as $47.80 a barrel, down $1.04 on the day. On London's International

Petroleum Exchange, January Brent futures also fell sharply, dropping as much

as 95 cents to a low of $43.50.

 

December Nymex heating oil futures hit a low of $1.4050 a gallon, down 4.08

cents, while December gasoline futures dropped 4.23 cents to a low of $1.2640.

 

 

But all of those contracts recovered some of their losses. A greater than

expected draw in U.S. gas storage inventories, reported at noon EST, pushed

prices higher.

 

The recovery had started earlier, as the market's is concerned it's too early

to say whether the distillate build marks the beginning of a rebound in

inventories, said Mike Fitzpatrick, senior vice president at Fimat futures USA

in New York.

 

"The market was glad to see the build in both reports," said Fitzpatrick. "It

is not collapsing because it wants to see whether it will continue to build or

whether it's a one-week phenomenon."

 

The oil inventory data came on the heels of a week-long surge in oil prices,

which have been driven higher from their recent low of $45.25 a barrel amid

concerns about winter supplies.

 

The EIA reported a smaller than expected build in crude stocks of 100,000

million barrels to 292.4 million barrels, while the API reported a draw of

1.216 million barrels in crude inventories.

 

MacIntyre said crude inventories could actually begin to decline if refiners

continue to run at high rates and there is no corresponding increase in

imports, he said

 

But Fitzpatrick said that crude supplies have not been a concern for the

market.

 

Refinery runs fell slightly but appear to be stabilizing, MacIntyre said.

Refiners processed 15.5 million barrels a day of crude oil last week, about

"what we expect them to do this time of year," MacIntyre said. "There is a

little more room, but not much."

 

The fact that the heating oil component of distillate stocks actually showed

a slight decline doesn't matter because all distillate fuels can be used for

heating purposes, MacIntyre said.

 

"We look at total distillates; if there is a problem with heating oil, we've

seen in past people use diesel," he said.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

 

Hi folks,

 

A longer view on our XJO/SPI .....

 

..... whole squares of numbers often figure,

as pivots, in congestion and distribution zones.

 

3969 = 63 x 63

 

4096 = 64 x 64

and exactly 1400 points up from 13 March 2003

lows ..... 2696 for XJO.

 

=====

 

Uptrends are not stopped easily and while we

may see some significant breathers along the way,

our market may not roll over for a good while yet.

 

Price targets at 4489 (67 squared), 4937 and an

extreme target at 5386, should see some serious

selling and one significant, short-term target

date may be 24012005 .....

 

Check the chart:

 

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.ph...0Traders&id=674

 

..... why would you fight it?

 

happy trading all

 

yogi

 

http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

[acouch]

DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Charges On, Eyes $460

 

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York

Mercantile Exchange secured a fresh contract-high close Monday as the sustained

weakness in the U.S. dollar coupled with gold's stronger price chart continued

to draw buyers toward bullion.

 

The most active February contract (100 oz each) settled $4.30 higher at

$455.80 per ounce.

 

Dealers noted that much of the volume traded over the day flowed through the

market within the first three-to-four hours of open outcry trading as U.S.

players returned to work following the Thanksgiving holiday to find the U.S.

currency near historic lows against the euro, and at multi-year lows on the

U.S. Dollar Index.

 

With gold viewed as an effective hedge against the dollar's weakness, buyers

of bullion easily outnumbered sellers through the first half of the session.

 

However, once the knee-jerk reaction to the dollar's low levels passed,

follow-through buying interest proved scant and light bullion bank-selling and

fund profit-taking trickled through.

 

That said, some short-term traders did attempt to shunt February prices

higher at around 1230 EST in a bid to trip resting stop-loss buy orders, but

only found more selling that capped prices at $457 an ounce.

 

That level is expected to act as resistance over the near term, followed by

the $458 and $460 levels, dealers said.

 

On a spot basis, prices peaked at $454.95 ahead of Friday's high of $455.38

as follow-through buying interest proved scant.

 

The $456, $458 and $460 levels are targeted overhead, although renewed U.S.

dollar weakness is required in order to generate the sustained buying interest

necessary to get there, dealers said.

 

"We need fresh impetus to press higher now, either more dollar weakness or

something like that, as otherwise we'll struggle to find buyers," argued a

floor dealer with a large precious metals refiner and trader.

 

March silver was dragged higher by gold and secured its highest close in

seven months of $7.825. The $7.87 and $7.90 levels are targeted to the upside

should gold keep rising, dealers agreed.

 

Nymex January platinum edged up on the back of the strength seen elsewhere

and hit four-day highs of $866.50 in the process. The $870 and $875 levels are

eyed overhead. March palladium proved unable to move in line with the rest of

the complex and dipped to a 16-day low of $212.60 during the thinly traded

morning session. Dealers agreed that palladium will likely meander in a

$210-$220 channel over the near term.

 

 

Settlements:

London PM Gold Fix: $451.25 Monday, $451.00 Friday

U.S. spot gold 1405 ET: $453.68, up $2.16 from Open; Range: $449.43-454.95

Feb gold (RGCG05) $455.80, up $4.30; Range: $451.50-457.00

Mar silver (RSIH05) $7.825, up $0.158; Range: $7.660-7.855

Jan platinum (RPLF05) $865.40, up $3.00; Range: $859.50-866.50

Mar palladium (RPAH05) $213.75; down $2.65; Range: $212.60-217.00

 

[acouch]

Iraq to Spend $1 Billion to Boost Oil Output in 2005

 

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Iraq, the fifth-largest oil producer in the

Middle East, will spend more than $1 billion next year to increase

oil production capacity by about 15 percent to 3.25 million barrels

a day, an Iraqi official said.

 

``The budget is fixed for priority projects to build new export

pipelines and complete modifications to our refineries,'' Abdulilah

al-Amir, a foreign relations adviser to Iraqi Oil Minister Thamir al-

Ghadhban, said in a telephone interview.

 

Iraq, which holds oil reserves estimated to be the third largest in

the Middle East at about 112.5 billion barrels by the Arab Oil & Gas

Directory, can produce as many as 2.8 million barrels a day of oil

at full capacity, al-Amir said from Baghdad.

 

Iraq's plans to increase capacity to 3 million barrels a day this

year were curtailed by persistent attacks by militants against

foreign contractors and pipelines. The U.S.-government funded

Restore Iraqi Oil program, called RIO, returned output to pre-war

levels of more than 2 million barrels a day this year after last

year's invasion led to a production collapse.

 

Some of the world's largest international oil companies such as

Exxon Mobil Corp., the Royal Dutch/Shell Group and ChevronTexaco

Corp., are intent on bidding to develop Iraq's oil resources should

the government decide to open up the industry to foreign investment

following elections next year.

 

Interrupted Exports

 

Oil exports, which rose to almost 2.3 million barrels a day in

October for the first time in five months, according to a Bloomberg

survey of output by Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries,

were interrupted when a fault described as ``corrosion'' by Iraqi

officials halved shipments from the Basra oil terminal in the south

last week.

 

Basra and Iraq's southern provinces, which have escaped most of the

security problems that have crippled the industry in the north, are

its most fertile areas for oil production and exports.

 

State-run South Oil Co., formed in 1968, claims to account for about

2 million barrels a day of the country's total output capacity

pumped from 813 wells, spread across 12 fields.

 

The company, which is headed by Jabbar al-Leaby, took over the

Garmat Ali water treatment plant, which will inject liquid into

wells to help pump more oil this month. The plant, which is vital to

maintaining the flow of oil from the Rumaila field, was rebuilt

under the RIO program by Kellogg Brown & Root, a unit of Halliburton

Co.

 

Foreign Assistance

 

The oil ministry is seeking the assistance of foreign oil and

engineering companies to help expand plants and production fields in

the face of a campaign waged by militants to undermine the industry,

which is the country's main source of income.

 

Five companies from a list of 14, including Shell, were invited to

participate this month in a second round of bidding for a contract

to study the Rumaila and Kirkuk reservoirs, the country's biggest,

al-Amir said.

 

Schlumberger Ltd., the world's second-biggest oil-services company,

is one of the five invited to bid again to study one of the fields,

a company official in Cairo said.

 

Shell and ChevronTexaco Corp., the second-biggest U.S. oil company,

are among foreign oil companies offering Iraqis free consulting

services to help build stronger relationships that may lead to

larger commercial production contracts in the future.

 

Economic Effect

 

Iraq's income from the export of oil is forecast to double next year

to about $17.5 billion from the 2003 figure, following the removal

of the former regime of Saddam Hussein, Daniel Hanna, senior Middle

East economist with Standard Chartered Plc, said in a telephone

interview.

 

``When the Paris Club met to cut Iraq's debt they said they would

possibly review the situation as Iraq is an incredibly oil- rich

country,'' Hanna said. ``Its ability to develop these resources and

the impact next year's elections and security will have on this is

the real issue for the oil industry.''

 

The Paris Club is an informal group of creditor nations whose role

is to find sustainable solutions to the payment difficulties

experienced by debtor nations.

 

The interim Iraqi government, led by Prime Minister Ayad Allawi,

appears determined to stick to the Jan. 30 poll date for the

country's elections to form a new executive, which are vital to

creating a legitimate platform that may open the country's oil

industry to foreign investment.

 

Pressure is building on the government to delay the vote, the

country's first democratic ballot in a generation, because of an

escalation of violence since the U.S.-led assault, which began on

Nov. 8, on the militant stronghold of Fallujah and a threatened

boycott by Sunni Muslim political groups.

[acouch]

Saudi Arabia to Raise Oil Capacity to Ease Concerns

 

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil

exporter, plans to expand output capacity by 14 percent to ease

concern of potential shortages, said the nation's oil minister, Ali

al-Naimi.

 

``Demand for Saudi oil will continue to increase in the coming

years,'' al-Naimi said in London, where he is attending a Middle

East conference organized by the Royal Institute of International

Affairs. He said the nation will boost its limit to 12.5 million

barrels, from 11 million a day now, as consumption advances around

the world. The minister gave no timetable.

 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping the

most oil in 25 years in response to record demand growth and prices,

which peaked at $55.67 a barrel in New York on Oct. 25 on concern

about shortages and disruptions to supply from Iraq, Nigeria and

Russia. When asked about a weakening dollar, Al-Naimi said OPEC has

decided to maintain its sales in the U.S. currency.

 

``OPEC has looked and looked, and every strategic team comes back

with a statement that there is no merit in a change,'' al- Naimi

said. ``Throughout history of industry, oil is priced in dollars. I

don't know if there will be much difference whether you change

currency, go to a basket or stay with the dollar.''

 

OPEC raised its production quota to 27 million barrels a day on Nov.

1, the highest on record for the 10 members that have self- imposed

limits. The Vienna-based group plans to meet Dec. 10 in Cairo to

discuss output targets. Saudi Arabia is now producing close to 9.5

million barrels a day, the minister said.

 

No Change Expected

 

Oil prices have dropped 10 percent since reaching their peak,

leading analysts including Adam Sieminski at Deutsche Bank AG to

expect no change in production after the group meets.

 

``With things seeming to be stable, the best bet going into this

meeting is they won't do anything,'' he said in London.

 

The 10 OPEC members with quotas plus Iraq produced 30.61 millions

barrels of crude oil a day in October, according to a Bloomberg

survey of oil companies, producers and analysts published on Nov. 3.

It was the most oil the group has pumped since November 1979, U.S.

Energy Department figures showed.

 

OPEC and its members are now producing almost as much as they can,

trying to ``catch up'' with demand, al-Naimi said. Increasing oil

use is the ``primary factor'' in rising oil prices, he said. ``The

fear factor,'' or concern that shortages will develop, probably adds

$10 to $15 a barrel to prices, he said.

 

In response to questions, al-Naimi declined at least twice to say

what he thought the price of crude ought to be. ``It is that price

which consumers, investors and producers are happy with,'' he said.

 

Previously, al-Naimi has said he preferred a price of $25 a barrel.

OPEC formally sets a target for prices based on different blends of

crude. That target has remained unchanged at $22 to $28 a barrel,

although the last time the basket price actually fell within that

range was December 2003. Some OPEC members have called for the price

band to be raised.

 

``I think they have gone up,'' Sieminski said. ``I think it is now

$30 for the OPEC basket.''

 

Balanced Market

 

Al-Naimi said the oil market is now balanced, with supply possibly

`` a little bit'' ahead of demand. Stockpiles of oil are ``building

comfortably,'' he said, and inventories of oil products are

recovering.

 

``We are producing 9.5 million barrels a day, and we would be ready

to produce 11 million if a buyer showed up,'' al-Naimi said. ``Where

is it? There is no shortage of supply in the market.''

 

In determining whether to invite foreign oil companies to invest in

oil product, the nation will consider whether outsiders are needed,

al-Naimi said.

[uptrend]

I heard yesterday that Saudis largest oilfield is now pumping 60% water; it used to be 20% some years ago. The Saudis are trying to talk the market down and anyway the increase won't satisfy a fraction of demand.

[acouch]

IL FUTURES:Nymex Crude Above $50 On North Sea Disruption

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures climbed above $50 a barrel Tuesday, continuing to draw support from production shut-ins in the North Sea.

 

Repair work on Statoil ASA's (STO) evacuated North Sea Snorre field has begun

but no date on restarting some 205,000 barrels a day in production has been

given.

 

That has led traders to conclude that "the problem is more serious than originally thought," said Andy Lebow, senior vice president at Man Financial in New York.

 

The amount of shut-in production also appears to be greater than originally thought. Between Statoil and Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO), some 240,000 b/d-280,000 /d in crude production has been shut in and restoring could take weeks.

 

"The North Sea being down for an extended period of time is adding to the

bullishness in the market," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp.

in Chicago. "The uncertainty is going to keep the market on edge."

 

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for January delivery

rallied as high as $50.40 a barrel, up 64 cents, before easing back a bit.

 

 

enjoy your day

[acouch]

DJ DATA SNAP: US GDP In 3Q Unexpectedly Revised Higher

 

==========================================================

Gross Domestic Product 3rd 3rd 2nd Consensus: !

Overall GDP Growth 3.9%r 3.7% 3.3% +3.7% !

PCE Price Index 1.1% 1.1% 3.1% Actual: !

+3.9% !

=========================================================

 

By Jeff Bater

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

 

 

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. economic growth was better during the summer

than first believed, the government said Tuesday in a surprise upward

adjustment based on higher consumer spending and sales of goods overseas.

 

Gross domestic product increased during July through September at a 3.9%

annual rate, faster than the 3.7% pace initially estimated, the Commerce

Department said in a report that also indicated falling corporate profits and

tame inflation.

 

Commerce routinely adjusts its economic growth numbers. Revisions are made as

fresh data come in on the components used to calculate GDP.

 

For the third quarter, upward adjustments were made to consumer and business

spending and to exports. Inventory investment was lowered.

 

The revised 3.9% figure was above what Wall Street predicted. A Dow Jones

Newswires-CNBC survey of 16 economists forecast no revision would be made -

that is, growth at 3.7% as originally reported.

 

GDP measures all goods and services produced in the U.S. It grew 3.3% in the

second quarter and 4.5% in the first. The economy advanced 3.0% in all of 2003.

 

 

After-tax corporate profits decreased 2.0% to $884.9 billion in July though

September. Profits fell 0.7% in the second quarter. Year over year,

third-quarter profits were up 8.1% from the same period 12 months earlier.

 

Consumer spending climbed 5.1%, up from the 4.6% pace previously reported and

higher than the second quarter's 1.6% gain. Purchases of durable goods

increased 17.2% and non-durables rose 4.8%; originally, durables were seen as

rising 16.8% and non-durables up 3.9%.

 

Business spending rose 12.9%, up from the initially estimated 11.7% increase.

Investment in structures slipped 0.3% and equipment and software shot up 17.2%.

Overall business spending rose 12.5% in the second quarter.

 

Inventory investment by private companies was weaker than first believed.

Businesses expanded their stocks by $35.9 billion, revised down sharply from

the originally reported $48.1 billion. The $35.9 billion accumulation lagged

the second quarter's $61.1 billion increase in stockpiles. That $25.2 billion

quarter-to-quarter change - the reduction in the increase, that is - subtracted

0.91 of a percentage point from GDP growth.

 

Real final sales of domestic product - that is, GDP less the change in

private inventories - advanced at a 4.9% annual rate. That was higher than the

previously estimated 4.2% increase and above the second-quarter's 2.5% growth.

 

 

Exports rose by 6.3%, while imports increased by 6.0%. Commerce originally

projected exports as rising 5.1% and imports up 7.7%; in the second quarter,

exports rose 7.3% and imports climbed 12.6%.

 

Federal government spending went up 4.7%, compared with an initially

estimated 4.6% climb; second-quarter spending went up 2.7%. State and local

government outlays fell 0.8%.

 

Inflation gauges for the third quarter were left unrevised. The government's

price index for personal consumption rose at a 1.1% rate, sharply lower than

the second quarter's 3.1% increase. The price index for gross domestic

purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, rose at a 1.8% rate in

the third quarter, lower than the second quarter's 3.5%. The chain-weighted GDP

price index increased at a 1.3% rate, below the second quarter's 3.2%.