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In reply to: arty on Sunday 26/10/08 02:43pm

Ah thanks for that! I can definitely use this information to help me along!!


Being a trader, don't you find that it helps to keep an eye out on the ASX 200 Futures as well? ie. if it's heading south and the stock you're looking at (eg CBA) looks like it's forming a double bottom during the day, you may hold off entering the trade?


Just seen the charts you posted subsequently as well http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif Will keep an eye out for confirmation! Just to clarify.......do you close out your positions by the end of the day, or do you open up some short-term positions and hold them for a few days/weeks etc, or both?



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QUOTE (BlackLodge @ Sunday 26/10/08 01:13pm)
do you close out your positions by the end of the day, or do you open up some short-term positions and hold them for a few days/weeks etc, or both?

The answer is "Both".

While I do look at sector charts to get a general feeling for where the Market is at, the main determinant is the chart of each individual stock.

Let's say I want to buy a stock that's in the Health sector. If XHJ is top of the class, I'm more inclined to make it an intraday trade only - because in the current "climate", chances are tomorrow XHJ will be at the bottom, dragging my stock lower with it; that doesn't mean the share has to be dumped altogether, but the chances for a lower re-entry increase.

If XHJ is at the lower end, and my selected stock is trading well, I'm more inclined to hold over night because it's outperforming its index, increasing the probability of continuing momentum.


Once a stock justifies my "trust" and keeps rising, of course I hang on for the ride "as long as it lasts". That's where the "ATR Envelope" comes into play; it tells me objectively whether the trend is continuing, slowing, or turning back.

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  • 9 months later...

Swaps decline as risk worries abate August 6, 2009 - 11:47AM

The cost of protecting bonds in Japan and Australia from default declined, according to traders of credit-default swaps.

The Markit iTraxx Japan index of credit-default swaps fell 4 basis points to 147.5 in Tokyo, Credit Suisse Group prices show. The Markit iTraxx Australia index dropped 2 basis point to 139 in Sydney, Citigroup Inc. data show.

The Markit iTraxx Asia index of credit-default swaps on 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan was unchanged at 125 basis points as of 9:08 a.m. in Hong Kong, ICAP Plc prices show.

Credit-default swap indexes are benchmarks for protecting bonds against default and traders use them to speculate on credit quality. An increase suggests deteriorating perceptions of credit quality and a drop shows improvement.

The swap contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities if a borrower fails meet its debt agreements. A basis point, 0.01 percentage point, is equivalent to $1,000 a year on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.


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Yep, the itraxx index in Oz has screamed back in from the wides of +400 bps to now mid100's.


Still very wide by historical standards but nevertheless a severe improvement.

The itraxx in Oz is made up of 25 names (the major banks are in there twice, one for their senior debt and also for their subordinated debt), and most, if not all of the corporates in the index have either raised equity (ie strengthened their balance sheets, such as GPT) or dont need to (ie WOW, TLS).


You can also trade the underlying CDS on the individual names.


I dont think retail investors can buy/sell the Itraxx or individual CDS, its really an OTC index that the major banks/brokers make a market for in fixed income land. Im sure if you had a $500k or $1m parcel you could.

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  • 7 months later...

Hi Kelt,


Do you look at Natural Gas futures?


Very volatile commodity that looks very oversold - broke down through US$4 on Friday.


Any idea of where the bloodbath could stop?


By the way, only kangaroos bounce. :P

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G'day jdh,


Took me awhile to get that, I'm a bit slow. :wacko:


I pretty much trade any futures if I see a good setup. Traded Natgas once since it broke down for a loss.


Looks like it is in a wave 3 down with a 4 at some stage and a 5 down to finish. Best bet would wait for the 4th wave to setup and short the breakdown. It getting close to the 61.8 fib and a couple of support lines around 3668 and 3540, however it doesn't seem the best risk/reward setup at this stage.


I took the trade last week because it looked like it was forming a base and the RSI was very oversold on the daily, but it still broke south. Personally trading futures I think it's better to wait for a better T/A setup.


Did you short live cattle?


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