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Has it found support?

recapping the big picture: since the last two posts, we've enjoyed a couple of very profitable swing trades.

Since April, I have been OST-less, but at the 50% mark, I'm becoming interested again.

 

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The two swings in May and June didn't register with my scan; but it's a different situation now.

If it holds above $3.02, I'll buy Monday's Close; stop $2.94 means about 8-10c risked. That will determine my position size.

 

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Hi Arty

OneSteel too has appeared on my watchlist ....I am interested in your comment that you would "buy into Monday's close". Could you please explain your reasoning for this very specific "ploy" (as opposed for example when your intraday chart may suggest otherwise?). Further, I can read and understand the positioning of your stop from the chart but do you not think it is a bit tight and that you therefore run the risk of being stopped out. The reason I say that is because over the past two days I have entered some trades with reasonably close stop losses in place (good money management?) and in each situation I have been stopped out and therefore missed out on good profit as the stock recovered. Mind you, not really complaining because still maintained my capital to "fight another day" but still interested in your feedback.

(Frustrating business this share trading - damned if you do, damned if you don't ....).

Cheers and have a great weekend. Glorious sunny day here in the Snowy Mountains after yet another heavy frost. Pity I'm here studying my TA ...!

Chum

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Hi Chum,

 

"buying the Close" doesn't prevent me from taking a position on the Intraday chart. That I would've been allowed as early as last Wednesday. Interestingly enough, such a trade would now also have the trailing stop at "Close Below $2.94".

 

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If OST was moving higher on Monday, I would automatically readjust the trailing stop - depending on how the chart calculated it.

If it would break back towards the falling trendline, I'd obviously stop out any shares bought off the Intraday chart at $2.94 - possibly even earlier, if short-term indicators suggested more downside. In that case, I'd treat yesterday's green candle as a "false break" and stand back until the new direction became clearer.

 

As a general comment: I don't mind setting a tight stop in the early stages of a trade. Especially so when markets overall are jittery and moving sideways. I may widen the tolerance once the new direction appears confirmed and a steady trend has been established. Conversely, if the breakout coincides with a significant increase of volatility, I'm again switching to narrower stops, even sell as soon as resistance arrests further rise, to protect the "bird in the hand".

 

For a more general explanation of this "small bites" approach, see if you can still grab a copy of Daryl Guppy's book on "Bear Trading"

ISBN 1-875857-82-6

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  • 4 months later...

:sadsmiley02: The Westfield split-up will push OST out of the ASX Top 50, AFLI index.

Question is: Will OST's share price suffer as a consequence? It's not as if they were no longer a viable top-100 resource stock. So what if they've slipped down inside a falling channel: in recent weeks, buying volume seems to show some Accumulation going on. The only thing that's still holding me back is: We haven't seen a Higher High yet, although the sp has broken the channel resistance.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

OST seems to lag BSL a little more. Check today's chart - consider only the latest Trinity setup, seeing the one before has been nullified.

 

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Now wind the clock back about 4 weeks and look at BSL. I've placed a spotlight on the area in question.

 

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Any chance we could see OST bottoming and running up into the New Year? (No promise. Just something to watch out for.)

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Following that exact same scenario Arty

Bought a tiny pos on the 15th in case it didn't retest, but exited when there was no follow through.

Watching & waiting again.

In hindsight, should have jumped on SGM & hung on. Has well outformed both.

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