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QUOTE (remlif @ Friday 03/12/04 03:29pm)

It is amazing II are still going. But I suppose new people to the market benefit from II.

 

I subscribed to them some years ago, but never renewed. Although they like to think they are providing in depth research into the top companies, most of their information is in the public domain.

 

Couldn't believe they are still on about Millers. They picked Millers before any other publication and couldn't get away from the infatuation that they found a company outside of the top 50, that was on the up. Got sucked in by their own egos, I think.

 

For people who claim to be contrarians and who are into Graham and Buffet, they need to have a look at reality (Graham and Buffet didn't make their fortunes scouring the top 50 companies), then go over to the States and apply their trade. OZ is a different beast.

 

I asked them to look into micro-caps. They seemed to oblige, but not enough for my liking to justify my subscription. Too time consuming, I was told. Just reporting on the majors was a massive job in it self. Depends what people call research, I suppose.

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Hi guys, I've also been watching MRL though the II's recs, and am glad I didn't step in. I just felt II was underestimating WHS's potential - I myself feel they have a more appealing brand and store atmosphere than MRL with just as competitive prices.

 

It's quite possible the market may have been further concerned with Target's recent rejuvenated push into the apparel sector. There was an article in The Australian today commenting that analysts who toured the re-focused stores were very impressed with the product range on offer. With current superb CML management I think MRL faces a real threat.

 

With both its apparel and discount chains under attack you'd have to be a brave soul to buy in now. I wouldn't be surprised to see some red ink on the bottom line the next few years.

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In reply to: jaded on Friday 03/12/04 03:45pm

i subscribed to them for awhile. must admit i got sucked into mrl by II's sheer enthusiasm for the stock. got in at 1.77 n got out at 1.40 odd. didnt have the patience to sit through the expected turn-around. by all reports, that turn-around looks more distant than ever.

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I thought i would post for a GT Financial report from March 2004 this year in regards to Miller Retail. We do not ever make public our reports or allow them to be distributed to non paying clients though as this report was done months ago some benefit may be found from it. Also of note this report found its way to the head of MRL who was not impressed with our views at the time and contacted us to express them. Guess there must have been substance all along for the report to be written

 

MillerÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Retail ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ Another Short About To Slump Return to top

 

 

Recommendation: Short SELL Target: $1.13 Stop Loss: $1.71

 

 

MillerÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Retail operates retail stores predominately in Australia and New Zealand through two distinct segments; womenÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s apparel and discount variety goods. MRL focuses on the value end of the market and has over 1000 stores in Australia and New Zealand. WomenÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s fashion brands include Katies, Crossroads, 1626 and Silhouette. Discount variety stores include Go-Lo, Crazy ClarkÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s, Crazy Prices, Chickenfeed Bargain Stores and Look Sharp - a variety importer and wholesaler.

 

 

MRL, a stock we had great success short selling in 2002 has since spent the past 15 months consolidating in the $1.50/$2.00 range. MRLÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¾ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s share price rose rapidly on the back of retail chain acquisitions and rapid growth in store numbers. The problem has been the growth in store numbers has not been reflected in equally strong sales and as a result cash flow has been poor. The retail environment, while strong from a retail spending point of view, retailers themselves have been operating in a highly competitive environment with heavy discounting required to improve market share. Any cut back by consumers in their discretionary spending, is likely to hit MRL very hard.

 

 

We favour this current consolidation in MRL to be a continuation pattern with MRL to soon resume trending downwards. Weekly 30 and 21 moving averages, which have been moving sideways for over a year are beginning to roll over and generate firm sell signals. Once MRL clears the January 2003 low of $1.52 to the downside there is no real support until the $1.13/07 zone.

 

 

Trending indicators are supportive of MRL accelerating to the downside sell signals emerging. The Directional Movement Index has begun to turn up (as given by the green line) from its lowest level in five years meaning a large-scale move with rapid price movement is on the cards.

 

On a daily chart MRL has just breached a key support zone and is also with firm trending signals. Other key indicators such as MACD are also giving sell signals. Upon buying at current levels, a stop could be placed at $1.71, just above the midline of the past three months price activity. We would not want, nor would expect this level to be breached if MRL is to begin to trend much lower. We are placing a target of $1.13 on MRL.

 

 

Accordingly we are adding MRL to the short portfolio with a weighting of 5.00%.

 

 

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In reply to: crystal on Friday 03/12/04 07:58pm

Hi crystal,

 

Could be. Will wait to see what II says. They often word their recommendations like that. particularly where it is a small illiquid company that may have its share price moved by a recommendation.

 

Usually they say "Buy up to $x.xx" meaning "don't pay over $x.xx because it is not worth it"

 

I am assuming that in the MRL case, they are saying "don't sell for less than $1.15", but I'm not sure that with the current price at around a dollar, they will revert to a a BUY. They have so much embarrassment over this one that I think they will tread very carefully.

 

Certainly, I wont be a buyer. Read herger's posting below, or better still get Google to find the Australian article for you. If their apparel sector falls over then they are in deep trouble. Being unable to pay a dividend will be the least of their problems

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