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Could be turning


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Below is a copy of the Carmichaels research. The original is on a pdf which I cant post here. Chhers John



excerpt from


DJ Carmichael Daily Bulletin 09 September 2005




Lynas Corporation (LYC)


Regulatory Hurdles Cleared, Funding Required

Speculative Accumulate



LYC has cleared the final regulatory hurdle for the Mt. Weld Rare Earth (RE) project development, 35km south of Laverton. A Chinese business licence has been granted for the recently formed Lynas (Shandong) Chemet JV to build the processing plant in China. The JV comprises LYC 90% and a Chinese JV partner 5%, to comply with local regulations. With the feasibility study completed, development is now dependant on securing long-term supply contracts and finalising financing. Discussions to this end are reportedly progressing.


Mt Weld resources are 7.7 mt @ 11.9%REO. Proven and probable reserves are 2.08mt @ 15.5%REO, sufficient for 14 years of operation.


LYC recently sold its 20% stake in AMR Technologies for $6.6m and it had $13.6m in cash following the sale.




Our LYC valuation using a US$4.29/kg basket price, A$/US$ 0f 0.72 and a 15% discounted rate (considering China risk) is A$0.17ps and we recommend Speculative Accumulation at current price levels. Using the 10-year average basket price of US$7.50/kg increases the valuation seven-fold to A$1.15ps. This gives an indication of the valuation leverage to price volatility. With any luck, investors could be getting on board at a bargain price cyclical low. Reports of tougher environmental compliance enforcements in China could be supportive of rare earths prices. That said, we reiterate the requirement to consider funding, development, sovereign and commodity risk.

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Possible golden cross approaching, 30 day MA going above 200 day MA, could be a breakout approaching?


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Could have the cross tommorow if we see some action soon?




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Can history repeat itself again, they need to get this project off the ground though http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ph34r.gif


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In reply to: ridgey on Thursday 12/01/06 03:31pm

Something seems to be happening technically.


Maybe China?



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In reply to: ridgey on Thursday 12/01/06 02:31pm

Hi all,


My first post so please allow for feminine blondes.


Money for development was explained at AGM and bankers were there.


Has anyone thought of the connection between LYC and BTX via DM Okeby -- LYC did say they were looking for a partner to help at the mine -- they are mining neighbours!




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