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In reply to: Oavde on Monday 11/07/05 04:44pm

Oavde,i cant hear anyone here say they made money on the dip...that's what all this TA thing is about ain't it....about knowing when and when not to buy or sell.

At least dory is set i think (not sure due to the question mark though).

Hope you took your own advice kili...although you were trying hard to talk urself out of it.

PS.....long term holders never need to brag...its a measured decision on FA.


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In reply to: mcnewf on Monday 11/07/05 05:36pm

iam in for now Mcnewf, just like sex or skinning a cat there is more than 1 way to look at

TA and what ever work's , do you own a dog Mcnewf ???


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In reply to: mcnewf on Monday 11/07/05 05:36pm

Trading should be about protecting capital whilst capturing rises and avoiding falls, the key point being protecting capital. If someone bought at 1.43 and held all the way through that dip and back to now, compared to someone who bought at 1.43, sold at 1.39, and bought back at 1.39 again, the second person is the wiser because they protected their capital from not just a fall, but potentially an even bigger fall. If a very active trader maybe they could have taken up a position in another stock in the meantime. With better timing maybe they would have sold at 1.39 and bought back at say 1.31, making more profit. My point is even if they sold and bought back at the same price, all they lose is brokerage and they have guarded their capital against what might have been the beginning of a terrible plunge.


I donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t have anything against buying and holding for longterm as long as there is some strategy of protecting capital in place. VCR is quite volatile and also, quite well behaved ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ it has large ranges of swinging up and down and usually well formed patterns and trendlines. To think of holding stock that rose to 1.70 then fell back to 1.21 ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ that is one big swing to have missed. Even worse, to have bought near the 1.70 ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ buying too late, holding too long. That is just silly behaviour.


I would not bother posting on VCR if I did not think it had immediate potential for a rise and also future potential for a great rise.


TA is not supposed to predict, the aim should be to determine what are significant price levels, that indicate significant potential movements, and to PREPARE, to set up in advance what should be done, because when significant price levels are broken, the action is usually too fast and furious to react in time. There is no point sitting there like a stunned mullet as the price moves up without you, or down against you. The purpose of setting up prices in advance should be to minimise exposure to risk and maximise exposure to profit. And lock in profit and minimise loss.


I can tell you now todays action was significant, it should get a lot of attention from the night scanners who get home and run scans and think ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“what the! IÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢m being left behindÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ we might see some gapping up at open, then a retrace a bit, then a rise. If instead today price went from 1.27 to say 1.32 then that is a good sign but not as attention-grabbing. If today it had gone below 1.20 then I guarantee you would have seen an horrific dump, maybe a rebound, but definetely a nasty low of say 1.10 or even 1.00 ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦


If tomorrow it goes over 1.45 I think that will cause a flurry of buying. I am looking forward to a strong rally but always keep in mind, anything could happen. The stinkers might bomb Sydney tomorrow at 9am and send the market crying into a ditch. Anything can happen.


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In reply to: mcnewf on Monday 11/07/05 06:36pm

I cant be bothered getting into a FA TA peeing comp, because each to his own I do not bag FA but prefer TA, a combo of the two is great.


Buuut I'm just wondering about this comment,....


PS.....long term holders never need to brag...its a measured decision on FA.


Long term holders have nothing to brag about as VCR has been in a 20 month down trend that would have slaughtered many a long term holders profits, or capital depending on entry levels, and all this when the market has been in a raging bull phase.

The other thing I wonder about your measured FA decision is what exactly are their great fundamentals? do they have a revenue stream to base your fundamental decision on??

Hmmm well they will do if/when everything falls into place, so at this stage really fundamentaly speculative and forward looking(although becoming less so all the time), not really a rock solid fundamentaly sound company.

That being said I believe a big future ahead for this pup as do most on this board http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif


Cheers and all the best to FAers, TAers, short, medium and long termers.



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In reply to: mcnewf on Monday 11/07/05 05:25pm

Did I say it would retrace definately? Nothings certain and going by the chart neither could anyone else of been. If i recall i said that 121 was the 50% Fibonnacci support and may hold BUT that 125 could not be considered a definate buy based on it only being a horizontal support line and the hope of a good announcement soon. You obviously agreed with me suggesting it was perfectly convincing and did'nt refute it till now...smart in hindsight huh. I think your only contribution to this discussion is that it is going up in the future.


Did i buy at 140 +...NO. Volume was'nt big enough in relation to the size of the candle( compare volume on other large candles);individual buys not big either...basically the bounce/ break-out did'nt look like a screeming buy to me. Still does'nt.


I have my criteria and VCR did'nt quite meet them all today...close though.

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Here is a chart with notes. Resistance lines are in red, support lines in green. Note the lines are applicable at different times (which is why there are often several lines in one spot).


Sorry the order of the points is a bit whacky


A. When this support line was broken it was a warning that the immediate uptrend was over probably. Note it then became a bit of a resistance line. It broke at 1.45 and then the failed rally against it failed at 1.55 - these are important prices to watch. Note 1.45 failed again just recently.


B. $1.65 is the super breakout point at which traders will go ballistic, if it is broken. It is halfway through that spikey day and also the price of the failed second peak.


C. This resistance line was broken at around 1.07 but price was flat. Notice how price action centered around this point later, during the strong rally. Very volatile, but centering around this point. (well not that centered)


D. First, a breakout that failed, this sets the point of the next breakout. Then at point D it failed again at 85c - this sets 85c up as a very significant point. Later on, price touched that, then the next day kaboom! off it went - note that was the 30 day moving average as well, crossed at that point. I generally don't care much for anything below the 30 day ma.


E. - NOW - we have crossed a resistance line at 1.40 ... there is support at 1.35 which is halfway on this white candle. Next resistance is 1.45 and I would like to see that one break. After that, about 1.56, then 1.65 and then say 1.72 are the points price action will ... hesitate, explode, do something out of the ordinary. People will sell at resistance but likely buy back if it breaks through.


I would not like to see 1.45 fail ... could happenm wouldn't be great. Overall it looks promising.


Good luck hope these simple lines explain something to someone. Always think - once resistance line is broken it becomes support, and vice versa.







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In reply to: dory on Monday 11/07/05 05:54pm

Yes dory......i have 3 dogs.

2 newfoundlands and another called De grey mining (deg).

Although i'm still hopeful that this dog will be a championship winner like my other 2.

And kili read my post again...was not knocking you at all....only asking if you followed your own theory.

I thought after a 50% retracement like that it would be a buy....otherwise what's the significance.

See,i have so much to learn.


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QUOTE (mcnewf @ Monday 11/07/05 09:06pm)



your comments could be read either way (like charts) but thanks.


The 50% observation made the 62% level (109) more relevant but it does'nt mean i will necessarily buy at theses points but watch the reaction of the crowd and if the perfect set-up presents itself then buy. This caution may of cost me a few $ short term but it preserves capital over all.


A neighbor of mine bought DavNet at 210 and held on for grim death till it was 3c (don't know if it exists or morphed into something else) ....had he applied T/A he'd of been out at a profit. He also held onto Pasminco for years as well,,,and.... it goes on and on...a true fundamentalist if ever I knew one.



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In reply to: kili on Monday 11/07/05 10:28pm

let me add,how do you apply fundamental analysis to stocks like DVt,VCR etc those without a history of income derived from sales? These stocks are fuelled by speculative scenarios of future market size and net profit % etc --- which gives rise to a sea of waxing and waning enthusiam...an apparent nonsensical chaos of movement that only when charted makes sense. Hanging on for grim death rain, hail or shine is ....just ask my neighbour.

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I think the reason why VCR is showing so much strength would be the biotechs in general are either showing signs of a base or getting set and break up, a lot of the stocks in this sector have been in a steady downtrend for a few years now and buy the look of it may be showing signs of a reversal.


I also said VCR should bounce around $1.20 and that the stock was a good buy at those levels and should head back to $1.70, I am in VCR from $1.25 the other day.



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