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In reply to: King Baz on Saturday 19/01/08 12:28pm

The main reason why these companies will continue to do well is there is little choice but to buy the locally produced product especially for fertilizer. In the past our co-op has occassionaly brought in fertilizer from china and russia etc., but almost invariably there have been problems with blocking filters in fertigation systems etc with impurities. There is less and less of this available. The IPL products have definately the advantage in quality.

My Cu sprays (from Nufarm) have doubled in price. No doubt a lot is from the cost of the Cu but even if Nufarm took the same percentage cut, they still double their profit. However when our actual on farm prices have decreased for the past 2 years something has to give.

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In reply to: farmer fred on Saturday 19/01/08 01:10pm

ff - l am intimately familiar with the scenario and am guilty of profiting from it.

 

Yes IPL have 80% of the commodity fert market, the other 15% is CSBP westcost that is essentially a duopoly. There are soluble solids, liquids, organics but these are all niche compared to the dollars the biggies pull in.

 

The Chinese and Russian gear usually have BS-analysis ie 20-20-20 (not chemically possible) or contain toxic levels of contaminants Cd, Hg . . . IPL has the major high value NPK market cornered and some blends, but the micro market is dominated by juniors.

 

Not sure what you are cropping, but Copper sprays for fert are very low volume/rate and for fungicidal l suppose it depends whether you are using a sulphate, an oxychloride or the Kocide end of the market. Relatively small impact compared to Glyphosate or say Urea, MAP, DAP or some of the Zincs!

 

What on farm prices are ou talking about? Fruit, veg, grains are all up in price!

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In reply to: King Baz on Saturday 19/01/08 01:24pm

Sorry should have been clearer, using cu oxychloride and kocide as fungicidal sprays (growing mainly avocadoes in a high rainfall area). Yes i steer well clear of the chinese and russian fertilizers .

Fruit and vege prices might be up in the shops but we have had our worst year for quite a while in avocadoes. Some of the late producing areas have done ok but most of the year prices were well down. Macadamia nut prices have halved. I know of a few farmers that have hoed in their melon crops as the labour cost involved in harvesting didnt make it worthwhile. Mangoes I believe are also barely paying. Like i said in an earlier post a lot of the horticultural producers are finding it tough going.

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ff - so you are in the northern-rivers (NE-NSW) region by the sounds of it http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

 

You should consider using a phosphite, they are effective at low doses, have a systemic efficacy, much more efficient than some of the fungistatic compounds . . . just make sure you get one that is pH stabilised so you don't get tip-burn on the Avos.

 

http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

 

 

Yeah, Stuarts point has pumped out 500k trays this year, and the Tenterfield packing shed is pumping them out also!

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In reply to: King Baz on Saturday 19/01/08 03:34pm

Good stuff FF & KB,

 

No idea what you 2 are talking about, but ..........

 

Sounds like you have an agronomy &/or science background kb?? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/graduated.gif

 

Need you guys to drop in on the "Agricultural Companies on the ASX" forum more often to give us your thoughts & insight!

 

cheers,

 

 

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Somebody really wants to grab a stake here ATM;

 

15,272 @ 103.00 ($1,573,016) http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/lmaosmiley.gif

 

Let's see if it sticks till open?? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif

 

DYOR & KYOIS. - I don't hold.

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In reply to: krk004 on Thursday 24/01/08 09:09am

krk

 

Apparently the US fertilizer stocks have been dropping the last few sessions. One blogger guessed that the sector was coming back after becoming overextended. But given US house builders are going well at the moment maybe there is not much sense in the sector moves.

 

I guess INP's price is influenced by what its US counterparts do (or at least by most of the same things that affect the US stocks) so perhaps the stock is going to come to you in the near while.

 

I would likely line up for a small parcel if it pulled back a bit more.

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QUOTE (triage @ Thursday 24/01/08 09:38am)

triage,

 

Have noticed a few comments in my travels about 'elevated' levels of fert stocks.

 

But a few simple points I come back to;

 

- soft commodity prices high

- heavy early rains across east Australia

 

Farmers are going to have a good crack this year, many are 'peeved' about previous years returns and high debt levels.

 

They are going to want this years (& hopefully subsequent) harvest(s) to be the mother(s) of them all.

 

As such, will pay the cost of elevated fertiliser costs - likely to be $900-1,000/t when available.

 

Might have to throw eps & PE ratios out window if IPL can capitilise on current circumstances.

 

As we have discussed, 'bookends' of any agri-share portfolio (along with NUF). IMHO http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

 

Lets see what the market throws at us with IPL share price! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif

 

DYOR & KYOIS. - I hold NUF.

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