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IPL - INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED


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IPL ain't no joke!

 

IPL update-

 

last close - 116.46

 

89 day ema - ~94.00

 

200 day ema - ~78.00

 

For the buyers, if the market continues it's recent descent, an entry point might be attainable at 94.00, but not 78.00 (barring a collapse!). http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/weirdsmiley.gif

 

Still a gun stock IMHO!

 

DYOR & KYOIS. - I may be closer to holding(?).

 

 

 

 

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Refer to IPL ann just out.

 

UBS has been playing IPL real hard.

 

Buying parcels early in the day to get support, keep VWAP looking attractive then cashing in. Even intraday!

 

ah well.

 

 

From what l understand the Dyno deal (acquisition taret IPL holds 13%) is almost sorted so that will give IPL an increased intl footprint.

 

http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

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In reply to: King Baz on Wednesday 16/01/08 10:48pm

Hi KB

Probably got their mates at Austock to give the "strong buy" this morning too so they could sell into the sheeps rally. Gone short on open this morning myself. It has a typical short term top reversal patt. Ppl are taking their profits - can't ignore what the rest of the market is doing.

Cheers

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In reply to: hungry on Thursday 17/01/08 02:17pm

Hi Hungry

 

Am I right in thinking that you are of the view that we are waiting on a substantial sheer drop (Bill Cara I think is talking about a 1,000 point drop in the Dow) to produce sufficient fear and panic amongst investors to set the basis for the market to to start rising again?

 

Maybe lots of agile sophisticated investors frequent these forums but I do not detect much fear and panic around here yet.

 

I am still waiting for IGR to correct so that I can get some more (see: no fear and no panic and I'm neither agile nor sophisticated). I am also waiting for some of the agristocks to pull back a bit in sympathy with the other sectors as, like krk004, I am trying to build myself a soft commodities portfolio. At the moment my agristock watchlist still isn't looking very red so I guess there is a way to go with this market correction.

 

I suspect that IPL probably need to split their shares otherwise they will spook investors - over $100 looks a lot to pay for an Australian share (what is Buffet's company's shares worth - $60,0000 each or something - apparently the yanks don't mind that look). But I agree with what I think is krk004's view that it is hard to have an Australian agristock portfolio and not have some of IPL.

 

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IPL is a solid business and the output (fertiliser) is increasing at a rate (price) much faster than costs are going up. Developing export markets . . . and IPL looks solid. In fact over the medium to long term, rock solid.

 

The only Urea Plant (Gibson Is) in Australia . . .

 

 

However, hate to admit it hungry has raised an important point in Agribusiness. In Agribusiness, things do not happen for the right reasons. Think single-desk .. . and the UBS action l pointed to should not be ignored. Yes the 'brokers' love 'playing' the ag-theme . . . and Austock now that it is listed is less objective and perhaps more antagonistic than it was a few years ago when l would attend the monthly lunchtime seminars they held as a RA.

 

Just look at my postings on the TIM thread where Hancey (founder) just raised $60M or something through Austock at $1.57 or something (top of my head) only a few weeks ago now the SP is $1.05! I think Hancey owns something like 8% of Austock!

 

 

Anyways, whilst l have my Agribus hats on l will mention an Ag stock that has not been raised by you Ag enthusiasts and was a previous darling of PJ's @ Austock, and that is WCB. Nice little dairy with high-grade export markets (Japan) and this is good buying. Fairly illiquid so more of a SMSF ag-theme stock.

 

 

Love this sector, but plenty of good 'direct' investments or VC type opportunities where an investor can get better value!

 

 

Good luck people.

 

 

 

 

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In reply to: King Baz on Friday 18/01/08 11:38pm

kb,

 

Still tend to think, ag-boom or no ag-boom, IPL is going to remain a very solid play.

 

International player (if, as Farmer Fred believes, ag-boom may only be evident in USA) and very dominant player here in Oz.

 

Future prospects likley to be factored in somewhat to current share price/market cap.

 

However, as I have stated before, a smallish number of investors/punters are looking over the ag-shares, compared to the mining & oil sector. So this eventual(?) 'shift' should provide some impetus, if the market improves. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif

 

Friday may have provided some with a 'swing' entry point, being sub -$110. Area of previous minor consolidation.

 

Not quite there for me yet I'm afraid. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/mad.gif

 

But as triage notes, IPL & NUF would have to be the 'bookends' of any agri-portfolio. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

 

DYOR & KYOIS. - I hold NUF, not IPL (yet).

 

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In reply to: krk004 on Saturday 19/01/08 11:59am

krk - no arguments from me, and certainly agree with your view on NUF/IPL.

 

The key is that these companies have solid branded products yet are in the lowest quartile of production costs (refer IPL owning product, supply chain 4prong strategy) and even in a downturn these guys will remain highly productive.

 

Ask any farmer about DAP/UAN, or Glyphosate prices and the monthly price increases and not hard to see why IPL/NUF are growing EBIT/NPAT rapidly.

 

I believe in a long lived agboom but not in the traditional sense. Agree that corn prices are inflated because of EtOH demand, but Canola (BioDiesel?), how about wheat? CBOT prices are not going to come down any time soon!

 

(IPL presos have excellent info about the fundamentals for growth in Ag-production or at least productivity that is almost exclusively delivered through chemical inputs, fert (IPL) and crop protection (NUF).

 

 

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In reply to: King Baz on Saturday 19/01/08 01:28pm

kb,

 

Yes, http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

 

Interesting story which a few investors may be unaware of - how many farmers have not 'paid' a cent for their IPL shares!

 

Incitec took over Pivot awhile back to form the merged(?) entity we know today as IPL.

 

Farmers obtained IPL shares from this process as most (those involved with cropping) held some or many Pivot Shares. These were unlisted shares that farmers just 'held'.

 

The farmers obtained these shares from many years back and their dealings with Pivot.

 

The shares were provided to them as a form of 'rebate' for dealing with Pivot - ie loyalty idea. Not exactly sure if it was they had to hold them to get the rebate or it actually was the rebate (??).

 

They recieved these none the less and they just sat there for numerous years (ie possibly 20+ years in some cases!). They weren't tradeable, I think you had to call up Pivot direct to see if someone was looking to buy (or sell)!

 

Now fast-track to 2008, there would be some farmers out there, not having 'bought' or sold a share - sitting on a pretty sum. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

 

Similar thing which many farmers experienced with AWB, ABB & GNC.

 

Others investors with AMP or AXA (ex - National Mutual) or CBA (de-facto through Colonial Mutual de-merger) by holding old life insurance &/or superannuation policies or the like.

 

DYOR & KYOIS.

 

 

 

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