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In reply to: rubba81 on Wednesday 20/08/08 09:41pm

Krumbs he called it as it is - the suphides are the key now.


I am given to understand he had a heated meeting with the company prior to his update.


Hurt very much to dumped what I have dumped but I can sleep at nights now (and actually eat without feeling like throwing up)


I still hold a quater of what I had - at a price I am too embarrassed to disclose lol and as said previously am content to hold that untill the next step - She is a takeover/sulphides play only atm.


I think take over is the obvious conclusion here have written the oxides off but also recognise a potential to reduce opex (and costs there are only theroretical atm but at least it is a heads up that they need to look to reduce expected costs. I remain bullish on metal prices - the boom may be over but I remain to be convinced that metals prices will be bust. I reckon the sulphides will be developed but probably not under CMR - certainly not under present management - either majors close to the company will make management go and put competent people in or HNC will take over - they looked at it in March I think but the Chinese Govt wouldn't give the go ahead - probably thought the idiots running tha company will stuff it up and we will get it heaps cheaper lol so in essence am waiting for the T/O offer.


I realise JP spent what to him is small change but that would obviously be what he is buying for - either to put pressure on those who make the decisions or bringing his own influence to bear - would love to see him runnign the show.


I think todays sell off was in direct response to huntleys write up. It has always responded to his write ups - mainly when they were a good write up - this was not such a write up lol and the response was predicatable once I saw it.


I also subscribe to a chartist service who happened to start covering CMR after the price rise pre AGM - being cynical I though the price rise was soley in response to postive announcements pre AGM but she actually also followed the XMM index fairly closely.


The chartist could see a sustained up more around the AGM and I was happy with that coz I do believe fundamentals drive charts (sometimes its fundamental info known by insiders sometimes its info known to all but insiders probably start the more subtle chart moves) so I thought beuty they have the fundamental info comming with production comming etc so it would support the chart potential - he did however warn that she needed to do certain things before his subscribers entered -


I was quietly chuffed thinking well how's that - I been in since well before he started covering it. Why didn't I get out when she didnt do what he said it needed to lol.


Why didnt I get out when he issued a warning on the chart - why do I pay for a subscription and not listen to it.


Oh well she is too low now for me to sell the rest. Have been day trading her here and there and funny enough the chartist issued an update tonight suggesting we finally have capitulation - she is now a day traders paradise - and should hopefully moves sideways while they play and people wor out how to fix her lol


I will not buy more other than to day trade and that will require some very clear technical triggers - the trades I have done have all been on the short side to be honest and will remain so for some time yet - or at least until they are taken off my providers short list lol.


I am not a violent man but I have little doubt that if I saw the Chairman or RS down the street tomorrow someone would end up having to call the police.


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In reply to: cuzn on Friday 22/08/08 10:25am

Well, that is the purpose of the 3Bs, to tell us what the insiders are doing (in theory at least). There will never be getting away from the fact that managers and directors of companies will in general be better qualified to assess their employers' prognosis than the shareholders - they had better be!


That's just the nature of things and why we should take note of these transactions. Having said that a lot of directors in various companies are under water with recent purchases, but they tend to take a longer term view than many market punters big and small, who one way or another are creating the present bear market (a psychological argument).


Did GT get it right this time like he did when he sold? Only time will tell, but at least he should be in a better poistion to make a correct call than us.




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In reply to: denpal on Friday 22/08/08 12:12pm

We may be thinking along similar lines denpal -


I have not written the oxides off - yet


Am not buying for them either lol - and remain very peeved off


However I remain bullish on the base metal front - ok some commentators may be right saying the resource boom has finished - (that is not saying I agree with them - just that they may be right) however even if they are right - I cant see it going from boom to bust


I see demand remaining - and remaining strong enough for prices to average somewhere between the highs and these recent lows - and of course spiking outside that range when they feel like it.


I imagine CMR's latest model would have been recived better if they used more dille of the road prices and acknowledged that opex was high but they are examining ways of reducing it.


Maybe I am just in denial but I sort of wrote off the prices they used because in all honesty neither they nor we can control metal prices. The only thing they can control in the equation is poduction costs - and at the $$$ used in the lest excersise they seem very high - especially when compared to costs analysts expected.


I spoke to the company secretary about it earlier in the week and he acknowledged they were high but that those were the numbers they came up with and that clearly they need to try to reduce them - when I asked how they intend doing that it was a sort of - well give us some time - we've only just come up with the numbers - now we have to look at what to do about them.


I am hoping (as opposed to hopful) that part of the purpose of the excersise was that they can go into production knowing even before they start that they must reduce costs


Anyway - at present I have to say I am really only looking at her two ways atm - either a longer term sulphides play - for which she is priced for a punt or a take over shorter term so will hold what I have left pending one or the other




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  • 3 weeks later...

In reply to: cuzn on Friday 22/08/08 05:08pm

insiders already know of the upcoming delay & cost blow out. The project could possible go into care and maintanence.


Nice to see the shareholders are the last one's to find out.


I thought the hold up was due to power supplier. That was close to over a year ago.


No one left to blame but the board. Time for some or all of them to fall on their swords.


Or is there a larger puppet master pulling the strings.



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