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Initial Public Offering and/or Floats


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In reply to: drrc on Wednesday 18/05/05 10:01pm

back on topic, can someone help me with the Sp of domino's, each time I enter their ticker into the box I keep getting.......


























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In reply to: jimmy64 on Friday 11/11/05 04:15am



Hi folks,


IPOs present some real challenges to many analysts,

not least, is how to anticipate market turns in the

early history of any listed entity.


Of course, if we were paid the big bucks, like blodgett

and his cronies, we could just invent some rubbish

and feed it to the unsuspecting masses.


Real traders however, often need to evaluate markets,

with only limited technical data available .....


..... a typical example being an IPO.


Fortunately, with Gann's astrotrading tools, we can look

ahead from listing of the entity and make some fairly

accurate assumptions about market news/moves, on

particular key dates.


Here's a few current examples:


Goodman Fielder - GFF - lists 19122005


27-28122005 ..... minor and negative


Throughout the whole of January 2006 there's an

underlying tone of negativity for GFF, so any positive

cycles may record a muted response in the price.


06-09012006 ..... significant and positive


13-16012006 ..... significant and positive news


17-18012006 ..... significant and positive???


20-27012006 ..... BIG time negative .... most likely the

worst for 2006 ... !~!


..... negative cycles continue, in early February 2006.




In stark contrast:


Tutt Bryant - TBG - lists 15122005


20122005 ..... minor and negative


22122005 ..... minor and positive


27122005 ..... minor news


06-09012006 ..... minor and positive


13-16012006 ..... minor and positive news


20-23012006 ..... significant and negative


25-27012006 ..... positive ..... finance-related???


Early February 2006 may be choppy, with an underlying

negative tone throughout the month.


02022006 ..... significant and negative news???


06022006 ..... BIG news ..... some conflict here???


10-13022006 ..... minor and positive ..... finances???


20-022006 ..... positive news???





SP Ausnet - SPN - lists 14122005


15122005 ..... minor and negative


16-19122005 ..... significant and negative


28122005 ..... minor and positive


January 2006 has an underlying negative tone for SPN.


02012006 ..... negative news ???


11012006 ..... positive ..... finance-related


16012006 ..... significant and positive


20012006 ..... significant and positive news???


06022006 ..... minor


08-09022006 ..... significant and positive


14022006 ..... minor changes


27022006 ..... 2 cycles here ... significant financial news???





Spark Infrastructure - SKI - lists 16122005


Some long periods of flat trading ahead for this stock,

in December 2005 and January 2006 and June 2006.


Watch key dates and price action, similar to HDR .....





So, instead of flying blind into a stag selloff, on the

next hot ipo ... maybe some of Gann's astroanalysis

will help some traders survive the shakeout, by exiting

before the onslaught ..... yes ... ???


happy days




P.S. .... with only limited data from the listing details, any

IPO or stock with limited data (for whatever reason)

may be readily analyzed for future key dates .....



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..... a recent float, with no thread on SS forum, yet.


Hi folks,


ODY ..... another Aussie oiler in USA ... another

oiler for the watchlist ... looking good for some

positive action in January ..... http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif



Time cycles ahead for ODY, over the next

few months ..... :-)


Key dates for ODY may be:


09122005 ..... minor


27122005 ..... minor


06-09012006 ..... spotlight on ODY


13-16012006 ..... significant financial news ... ???


20-23012006 ..... significant and positive move??


25-27012006 ..... finances ... same price as 16012006 ?


3001-09022006 ..... BIG news and rally here ???


02022006 ..... minor news


06022006 ..... minor ??


10-13022006 ..... finances ... same price as 16012006 ?


20022006 ..... minor and positive news


07-08032006 ..... minor and positive


16032006 ..... minor news ... same price as 20022006 ?


23-27032006 ..... 2 cycles here - changes and flat price?


29-31032006 ..... BIG news/move ...???


05042006 ..... positive news - same price as 20202006 ?


07042006 ..... significant and negative ... a high ???


happy days





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IPOs floating high on the ASX

James Dunn

December 10, 2005


IF you were offered an investment return of 10,000 per cent, your bulldust detector would - hopefully - go ballistic, and you would walk away from what had to be a scam.


But that's exactly what has been the happy experience of the 500 subscribers to Australia's champion float of 2005, iron ore explorer Iron Ore Holdings Ltd.


The fortunate few paid 20c for the shares. The shares hit the SEATS screens at 32c, closed their first day of trading at 40c and have not looked back, soaring to $2.91 at the time of writing.


The actual return for the shareholders is 1355 per cent. But if that return achieved over 211 days is annualised, it comes to 10,270.4 per cent. The numbers were checked by an actuary.


This means that to become a millionaire by now, an Iron Ore Holdings subscriber would have only needed to have bought just under $69,000 worth of shares in the float if they could get them.







But shareholders of healthcare device marketer IMD Group have a different story to tell. Their shares were also issued at 20c, in December 2004. They poked their head above 20c briefly - to 21c - but it has been all downhill since float day. They now trade at 6c, down 70 per cent.


Welcome to the extremes of the world of floats - or initial public offerings (IPOs) - on the Australian stock market, where some companies sink, and some companies swim.


Float mania


WITH the share market running as strongly as it has since 2003, float activity has run hot. In 2003, there were 89 floats, raising $8.44 billion (average size: $94.8 million). In 2004, there were 160 floats, raising $10.02 billion (average size: $62.7 million). But 2005 is on track to raise a record $15.3 billion, through 168 floats (average size: $91 million).


It is a very far cry from the recession year of 1990-91, when just one float was mounted, National Foods, raising $112 million.


Corporate finance partner at Deloittes Grant Hyde says 2005 has been an "outstanding year" for floats - in particular, the strong ending to the year. Hyde says the December quarter will produce 70 floats, raising at least $8.8 billion. This is more than double the previous quarterly record of $3.9 billion.


Even the next three weeks will see three mega-floats, with the IPOs of infrastructure funds SP AusNet and Spark Infrastructure and food giant Goodman Fielder set to raise $5.5 billion.


Hyde says the float boom is caused by three main factors. "Firstly, the Australian share market is performing so well, and floats are generally above water in terms of share price. The average float this year is 30 per cent above its issue price," he says.


This compares with a year or two ago, when Hyde says many floats remained under their issue price for a while. "Generally, that's not the case now and there have been good returns for investors from floats. Secondly, there is just such a strong flow of cash from superannuation funds - more than $1 billion a month - that is pouring into the share market, and has to find a home. And thirdly, there is the prospect of Telstra 3, which will soak up a lot of cash in the market. No one wants to compete with T3, so people are trying to get their floats away before that if they can." Even at its current price - at near record lows around $3.80 - the sale of the Government's remaining stake of 51.1 per cent of Telstra would bring $24.3 billion, making it the world's largest ever float (just ahead, on the current exchange rate, of the $US18 billion that Japanese telco NTT raised in the sale of its mobile arm, NTT DoCoMo, in 1998). Hyde expects the prospect of the massive issue to continue to push many of the larger floats on to the market.


"We expect this Telstra effect to carry over into the first quarter next year, as well, while people are sizing up whether T3 will actually happen," he says.


"If it happens, obviously the 2006 numbers will be huge. But if you look past the Telstra effect, we expect the returns from the share market to come down over the next year, and the level of float activity will also slow. But the current strength in activity is set to continue for at least the early part of 2006."


At the smaller end of the market, the commodity price boom is also contributing to the IPO boom - in numbers, at least. This year will end with 63 explorers having floated, raising $303.8 million, at an average size of $4.8 million (the average oil and gas explorer raised $6.6 million; the average metals explorer raised $4.3 million). Explorers accounted for 38 per cent of the number of companies that floated in 2005 but just 2 per cent of the funds raised.


"We're seeing a booming exploration sector, which is not surprising given where commodity prices are," says Derek Steinepreis, investment adviser at broking firm DJ Carmichael in Perth. "You're seeing floats across the whole commodity sector, with mini-booms - we've seen 10 uranium exploration floats this year, for example - and the success of Iron Ore Holdings has triggered a rush of iron ore floats."


Timely advice


STEINEPREIS says the sheer number of IPOs carries a warning to investors to be very choosy from now on. "Certainly, in the exploration area we've seen quite a few floats this year that are not of the standard you would want to support. We've seen a lot of very early-stage exploration situations, and a lot of spin-offs where the assets might have carried no value inside the parent company, but the tone of the market means that they can be spun off for $6-$7 million. That is, the company is being carried by the market, not on its own merits.


"You can't blame the companies, because the market is eager for floats, but it comes back to the investor doing their homework well, because the fact is that not every stock performs well once it lists," Steinepreis says.


Hyde agrees that investors need to look beyond the marketing hype. "Investors should always be very selective, because a strong market simply does not mean success for every single stock that comes on to the market. Investors have to look at floats carefully and, given the strong run that the market has had, that is even more important," he says.


"As an investor, you have really got to look at how attractive the structure of the industry is where the company operates and what the company's growth prospects are, because, at the end of the day, if the market goes soft, the share prices of solid companies with attractive market positions will hold up better."


Getting access


WHAT investors must accept is that access to good floats is limited by their connections and by institutional demand. "When there is large institutional demand for a float, retail investors get cut back," Steinepreis says. "Alinta Infrastructure, for example, was a reasonably large float, but retail investors got cut right back. Those who got them ended up with 1900 shares, which at $2 was $3800 worth."


Retail investors may find it impossible to obtain shares in a float unless they have a relationship with the underwriter, sub-underwriter or firm with an allocation.


So, it is no surprise that "access to floats" is the marketing advantage that full-service brokers use to offset the cheaper brokerage offered by online brokers.


But CommSec chief executive Michael Blomfield says that for most people, there will be little difference in the level of IPO access offered by brokers.


"If you're an A-class client of a full-service broker, yes, you will get access to any float the firm gets an allocation in. But if you are a normal C-class client, you won't be seeing every float that the firm is involved in, and your level of access to floats will reflect your place in the queue," he says.


"That isn't very different to being a CommSec client. But we have been involved in about 30 floats in the last year and we've offered access to floats such as Just Group and Viridis Clean Energy and were involved in Goodman Fielder. Often that has a lot to do with the issuer wanting as wide a spread of shareholders as possible."





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Hi folks,


WSP ..... another float, with no SS thread, as yet.


Attached is our WSP astroanalysis, through to

the end of June 2006.


Of course, this is just one techie's view and it may

be totally wrong, so please do your own research ..... http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif


happy trading






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White Sands Petroleum listed yesterday at a premium. Around 64000000 shares on offer, appears good management team and a great concept IMO given the shortages of drill rigs. Taking part in about 14 drills in the next 15 months and what they do is take a percentage in the drill site like a farmin for supplying the costings and drill rig associated with the drilling. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif Seek pro advice before buying or selling. Not holding.
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